Trading Signals: GLD Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Fri. Sep. 7, 2012

Trading Signals: GLD Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 18, 2004 - Tue. Jun. 25, 2024)

(SPDR Gold Shares)
GLD latest price $168.4400 (2.15%) ($167.3700 - $169.0000) on Fri. Sep. 7, 2012.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.85% (three month average)
RSI   88
Latest Price   $168.4400(2.15%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   GLD advances 1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   GLD advances 2% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support GLD advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
LQD(32%)    TIP(32%)    IGOV(26%)    TLT(24%)    PCY(23%)
Factors Impacting GLD price   GLD will decline at least -0.425% in a week (0% probabilities).
PEJ(-1%)    XLY(2%)    XAR(2%)    SPY(3%)    XLK(4%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.425% (StdDev 0.85%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.4%

5 Day Moving Average   $165.27(1.92%)
10 Day Moving Average   $163.36(3.11%)
20 Day Moving Average   $160.62(4.87%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   11.5%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. GLD price fluctuates within 2.24% (three month std-dev: 0.85%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 27 Average positive next day return: 1.35%(52%) Average negative next day return: -0.74%(48%) Sample size 27 Average positive next three day return: 2.82%(48%) Average negative next three day return: -1.42%(52%) Sample size 27 Average positive next weekly return: 3.35%(56%) Average negative next weekly return: -2.68%(44%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20121007

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Sep_7_2012	156.37	160.62	163.36	165.27	165.43	166.65	168.44(2.15%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.9	198	50	192	216	19.14	57%	0.06	65.6	0.85%	0	2.2	88	0
2	Sep_6_2012	156.28	160.02	162.66	163.68	163.96	164.66	164.89(0.35%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	97	40	77	155	12.97	53%	0.04	65.5	0.85%	0	1.5	85	0
3	Sep_5_2012	156.22	159.59	162.22	162.82	162.87	164.21	164.31(-0.1%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.5	110	60	92	164	8.4	53%	0.03	63	0.84%	0	1.6	86	0
4	Sep_4_2012	156.18	159.18	161.68	162.29	162.08	163.27	164.48(0.16%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.8	148	50	135	186	12.04	53%	0	61.1	0.84%	0	1.8	87	0
5	Aug_31_2012	156.18	158.75	160.96	161.67	161.44	161.53	164.22(2.31%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1	65	-0	44	127	18.03	61%	0.01	58.1	0.96%	0	2.1	80	0

6	Aug_30_2012	156.17	158.3	160.21	161.22	161.29	160.89	160.52(-0.04%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.3	-6	-20	-38	90	5.81	56%	-0.01	54.5	0.92%	0	0.9	65	0
7	Aug_29_2012	156.18	157.99	159.85	161.49	161.57	161.35	160.59(-0.65%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.4	8	-10	-24	103	9.29	53%	0	52.9	0.92%	0	1	66	0
8	Aug_28_2012	156.18	157.71	159.38	161.48	161.75	161.69	161.64(0.17%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	43	0	18	118	5.08	53%	0.01	54.6	0.93%	0	1.6	73	0
9	Aug_27_2012	156.16	157.44	158.74	160.92	161.26	161.79	161.36(-0.38%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	51	30	32	107	5.38	53%	0.04	58.2	0.94%	0	1.8	73	0
10	Aug_24_2012	156.1	157.22	158.2	160.1	160.56	161.81	161.97(0.05%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.9	114	60	111	121	8.5	53%	0.02	62.8	0.94%	0	2.3	77	0

11	Aug_23_2012	156.07	156.96	157.68	159.05	159.31	160.73	161.89(0.84%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1.7	126	70	130	112	17.24	53%	0.03	67.3	0.94%	0	2.9	79	0
12	Aug_22_2012	156.02	156.68	157.14	157.98	158.07	159.3	160.54(1.08%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1.9	110	60	115	94	13.61	50%	0.01	77.6	0.94%	0	2.9	80	0
13	Aug_21_2012	156.01	156.42	156.7	157	157.2	157.9	158.83(1%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.6	86	30	92	68	11.84	47%	-0.03	74.7	0.95%	0	2.1	68	0
14	Aug_20_2012	156.05	156.16	156.43	156.26	156.36	156.84	157.26(0.34%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	33	20	35	28	7.85	45%	-0.03	57.1	0.95%	0	0.9	53	0
15	Aug_17_2012	156.1	155.95	156.32	156.01	155.92	156.51	156.72(0.1%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	29	20	33	18	7.81	50%	-0.03	45.7	0.96%	0	0.6	45	0

16	Aug_16_2012	156.15	155.81	156.21	156.1	155.88	155.88	156.56(0.6%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	17	-0	20	7	8.84	50%	-0.03	42.5	0.99%	0	0.6	44	0
17	Aug_15_2012	156.2	155.66	155.98	156.18	156.1	155.33	155.63(0.32%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-34	-40	-38	-23	4.99	50%	-0.05	45.2	0.99%	0	-0	44	0
18	Aug_14_2012	156.28	155.54	155.94	156.35	156.39	155.87	155.13(-0.55%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-55	-20	-63	-32	5.08	47%	-0.06	46.4	1%	0	-0.3	49	0
19	Aug_13_2012	156.37	155.47	156.08	156.58	156.73	156.87	155.99(-0.76%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.4	2	10	-0	8	4.57	47%	-0.04	55.1	1.02%	0	0.3	63	0
20	Aug_10_2012	156.43	155.39	156.21	156.65	156.66	156.9	157.18(0.12%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	28	10	26	35	4.61	47%	-0.01	56.6	1.02%	0	1.2	70	0

21	Aug_9_2012	156.45	155.23	156.22	156.32	156.42	156.59	156.99(0.33%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	31	10	27	43	3.18	47%	-0.03	51	1.02%	0	1.1	65	0
22	Aug_8_2012	156.49	155.01	156.19	155.75	156.04	156.42	156.48(0.13%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	32	20	28	43	3.62	44%	-0.02	33.3	1.02%	0	0.9	65	0
23	Aug_7_2012	156.52	154.84	156.11	155.48	155.5	156.25	156.28(-0.01%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.5	40	30	37	50	5.93	44%	-0.04	15.2	1.05%	0	0.9	65	0
24	Aug_6_2012	156.58	154.64	155.86	155.52	155.2	155.65	156.3(0.48%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	37	10	33	50	4.61	44%	-0.03	7.8	1.05%	0	1	63	0
25	Aug_3_2012	156.63	154.52	155.55	155.75	155.42	154.76	155.55(0.92%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.1	-4	-40	-16	32	10.67	44%		9	1.05%	0	0.7	56	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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