Trading Signals: GLD Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Jun. 14, 2012

Trading Signals: GLD Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 18, 2004 - Fri. May. 24, 2024)

(SPDR Gold Shares)
GLD latest price $157.7500 (0.4%) ($156.2400 - $157.9400) on Thu. Jun. 14, 2012.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.98% (three month average)
RSI   70
Latest Price   $157.7500(0.4%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   GLD advances 0.4% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   GLD advances 1.4% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support GLD advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
TIP(32%)    LQD(31%)    IGOV(26%)    TLT(24%)    PCY(23%)
Factors Impacting GLD price   GLD will decline at least -0.49% in a week (0% probabilities).
PEJ(-1%)    XLY(2%)    XAR(2%)    XLK(4%)    SPY(4%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.49% (StdDev 0.98%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.1%

5 Day Moving Average   $156.28(0.94%)
10 Day Moving Average   $156.5(0.8%)
20 Day Moving Average   $154.57(2.06%)
To recent high   -4%
To recent low   5.5%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. GLD price fluctuates within 1.52% (three month std-dev: 0.98%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 13 Average positive next day return: 1.21%(69%) Average negative next day return: -0.74%(31%) Sample size 13 Average positive next three day return: 3.11%(62%) Average negative next three day return: -1.13%(38%) Sample size 13 Average positive next weekly return: 2.01%(62%) Average negative next weekly return: -1.11%(38%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20120714

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jun_14_2012	161.26	154.57	156.5	156.28	156.37	157.3	157.75(0.4%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	79	40	68	112	11.51	41%	-0.06	49.3	0.98%	0	1.4	70	0
2	Jun_13_2012	161.35	154.16	155.92	155.63	155.5	156.66	157.12(0.42%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	78	50	71	100	10.11	38%	-0.03	30.6	1%	0	1.2	68	0
3	Jun_12_2012	161.4	153.8	155.42	155.65	155.16	155.45	156.46(0.71%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	51	0	39	87	13.25	38%	-0.04	19.5	1.02%	0	1.1	64	0
4	Jun_11_2012	161.47	153.54	154.91	155.79	155.62	154.34	155.36(0.41%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.2	-24	-60	-47	45	9.17	38%	-0.04	7.4	1.02%	0	0.7	52	0
5	Jun_8_2012	161.54	153.44	154.66	156.18	156.16	154.87	154.73(0.15%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.6	-94	-60	-130	15	11.08	38%	-0.04	1.3	1.02%	0	0.5	50	0

6	Jun_7_2012	161.6	153.42	154.35	156.73	156.95	156.91	154.5(-1.72%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.9	-2	0	-24	66	18.93	38%	-0.04	0	1.03%	0	0.4	55	0
7	Jun_6_2012	161.67	153.41	154.09	156.16	157.12	157.46	157.21(0.04%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	89	30	83	107	15.77	38%	-0.02	-18.1	1.01%	0	1.5	71	0
8	Jun_5_2012	161.71	153.31	153.55	155.1	155.56	156.99	157.14(-0.11%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.9	75	70	71	87	8.1	38%	-0.03	-41.3	1.03%	0	1.6	69	0
9	Jun_4_2012	161.76	153.36	153.25	153.87	153.99	156.78	157.32(-0.11%)	UD	OpenLong	75	1.3	160	130	175	115	11.46	38%	-0.01	-56.9	1.04%	0	1.5	64	0
10	Jun_1_2012	161.78	153.41	152.91	152.95	152.75	154.13	157.5(3.88%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.6	167	60	188	105	27.41	42%	-0.02	-65.6	1.04%	0	1.5	57	0

11	May_31_2012	161.81	153.43	152.38	152.95	151.68	151.19	151.62(-0.19%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0	-10	-20	-11	-7	10.12	26%	-0.05	-78.2	0.92%	0	-0.6	41	0
12	May_30_2012	161.89	153.85	152.21	151.73	151.73	151.37	151.91(0.59%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-46	-20	-47	-41	16.77	31%	-0.04	-69.4	0.92%	0	-0.6	42	0
13	May_29_2012	161.96	154.3	152.02	151.76	151.8	152.18	151.02(-1.09%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-21	20	-12	-49	11.25	25%	0	-60.9	0.94%	0	-0.9	36	0
14	May_25_2012	161.96	154.82	152.07	152.49	152.01	152.09	152.68(0.84%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0	-3	-10	11	-44	6.21	26%	-0.04	-47.1	1.13%	0	-0.5	32	0
15	May_24_2012	162.02	155.24	152.13	152.86	152.54	151.43	151.41(-0.14%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-52	-60	-43	-78	9.7	26%	-0.03	-41.8	1.13%	0	-0.9	28	0

16	May_23_2012	162.07	155.71	152.45	153.14	153.2	151.93	151.62(-0.3%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-83	-60	-77	-100	18.85	26%	-0.02	-38.8	1.13%	0	-1	30	0
17	May_22_2012	162.11	156.12	152.73	152.71	153.42	153.65	152.08(-1.66%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-31	20	-8	-101	11.31	26%	-0.07	-42.9	1.13%	0	-1	28	0
18	May_21_2012	162.22	156.49	153.09	152.24	152.58	154.46	154.65(0.06%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.6	46	90	90	-88	7.54	34%	0.02	-48.4	1.13%	0	-0.5	30	0
19	May_18_2012	162.19	156.71	153.46	151.58	151.61	153.19	154.55(1.15%)	RB	SmallLong	20	0.8	73	70	128	-91	13	34%	0.02	-55.2	1.17%	0	-0.6	29	0
20	May_17_2012	162.15	156.96	153.88	151.38	150.85	150.71	152.8(2.23%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.4	-28	-20	13	-150	18.09	34%	0.01	-58.7	1.16%	0	-1.1	25	0

21	May_16_2012	162.13	157.3	154.47	151.77	151.3	150.03	149.46(-0.19%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.6	-118	-70	-91	-199	16.76	28%	-0.04	-62.1	1.12%	0	-2.1	12	0
22	May_15_2012	162.19	157.83	155.58	152.77	152.67	150.99	149.74(-1.05%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.9	-130	-80	-111	-188	13.36	28%	-0.08	-64.9	1.12%	0	-2.4	21	0
23	May_14_2012	162.32	158.39	156.76	154.03	153.62	152.58	151.33(-1.45%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-138	-60	-128	-168	13.39	28%	-0.03	-67.6	1.12%	0	-2.5	25	0
24	May_11_2012	162.37	158.88	157.83	155.58	154.77	154.36	153.56(-0.78%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-75	-30	-64	-109	8.29	29%	-0.01	-62.1	1.1%	0	-2.3	31	0
25	May_10_2012	162.39	159.27	158.64	156.76	156.11	154.66	154.77(0.19%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-1	-66	-80	-61	-80	7.46	29%		-48.5	1.11%	0	-2.2	32	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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