Trading Signals: GLD Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Wed. Jan. 21, 2009

Trading Signals: GLD Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 18, 2004 - Fri. Jun. 21, 2024)

(SPDR Gold Shares)
GLD latest price $84.1500 (-0.44%) ($82.9800 - $84.3900) on Wed. Jan. 21, 2009.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   2.32% (three month average)
RSI   44
Latest Price   $84.1500(-0.44%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   GLD advances 0.8% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   GLD declines -1.9% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support GLD advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
TIP(30%)    LQD(26%)    PCY(20%)    TLT(19%)    EEM(15%)
Factors Impacting GLD price   GLD will decline at least -1.16% in a week (0% probabilities).
PEJ(0%)    XLY(1%)    XLP(4%)    XLK(4%)    SPY(4%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.16% (StdDev 2.32%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.1%

5 Day Moving Average   $82.31(2.24%)
10 Day Moving Average   $82.44(2.07%)
20 Day Moving Average   $83.65(0.6%)
To recent high   -2.7%
To recent low   20.2%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. GLD price fluctuates within 2.5% (three month std-dev: 2.32%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 1 Average positive next day return: 2.44%(100%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 1 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: 0%(100%) Sample size 1 Average positive next weekly return: 7.79%(100%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

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i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jan_21_2009	79.79	83.65	82.44	82.31	82.67	84.14	84.15(-0.44%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.9	18	140	35	-34	12.28	49%	0.06	-19.6	2.32%	0	0.2	44	0
2	Jan_20_2009	79.74	83.57	82.49	81.66	81.75	83.4	84.52(2.19%)	RB	SmallLong	20	1.4	40	140	65	-36	16.75	49%	0.04	-24.3	2.36%	0	0.5	43	0
3	Jan_16_2009	79.71	83.54	82.44	80.91	80.92	81.2	82.71(2.89%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.9	2	20	25	-69	16.47	45%	0	-28.6	2.36%	0	-0.4	41	0
4	Jan_15_2009	79.71	83.67	82.75	81.15	80.61	80.09	80.39(0.75%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-44	-70	-32	-81	16.72	42%	-0.01	-13.1	2.41%	0	-1.6	43	0
5	Jan_14_2009	79.72	83.89	83.36	81.96	81.61	80.63	79.79(-1.35%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-36	-100	-29	-57	15.61	42%	-0.01	16.5	2.41%	0	-2.1	45	0

6	Jan_13_2009	79.73	84.06	83.99	82.55	82.65	81.13	80.88(0.15%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-1	-47	-130	-46	-49	10.02	42%	0	46.7	2.41%	0	-1.9	45	0
7	Jan_12_2009	79.73	84.09	84.56	83.4	83.26	82.58	80.76(-3.77%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.7	-44	-60	-50	-27	14.76	42%	-0.01	86.8	2.41%	0	-2.2	47	0
8	Jan_9_2009	79.74	84.12	85.08	84.15	84.04	84.17	83.92(-0.64%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	2	10	-0	9	8.86	39%	0.03	118.2	2.54%	0	-0.1	51	0
9	Jan_8_2009	79.72	83.94	85.06	84.61	84.05	83.95	84.46(2.07%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.1	-4	-30	-8	9	10.72	41%	0.05	123.4	2.54%	0	0.3	47	0
10	Jan_7_2009	79.68	83.57	84.91	85.02	84.5	83.91	82.75(-2.8%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1.2	-11	-70	-17	7	13.37	45%	0.04	113.6	2.55%	0	-0.4	46	0

11	Jan_6_2009	79.65	83.28	85.02	85.65	85.04	84.15	85.13(0.77%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.2	-15	-90	-25	16	12.88	47%	0.08	96.1	2.56%	0	0.7	60	0
12	Jan_5_2009	79.59	82.78	84.8	85.9	85.42	85.08	84.48(-2.03%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.5	-13	-40	-26	25	9.58	47%	0.09	76.4	2.57%	0	0.6	64	0
13	Jan_2_2009	79.52	82.36	84.75	86.12	86.04	85.94	86.23(-0.34%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	23	-10	13	53	6.41	44%	0.06	61.2	2.56%	0	1.1	70	0
14	Dec_31_2008	79.47	81.87	84.64	85.57	85.64	85.77	86.52(0.72%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	20	10	8	57	7.85	44%	0.08	46.9	2.62%	0	1.2	74	0
15	Dec_30_2008	79.41	81.38	84.41	84.79	84.95	86.13	85.9(-0.52%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	37	100	25	74	7.12	41%	0.06	37.1	2.62%	0	1.2	79	0

16	Dec_29_2008	79.36	80.87	84.08	84.3	84.16	85.5	86.35(0.88%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.5	58	110	47	91	9.09	43%	0.03	29.9	2.69%	0	1.4	81	0
17	Dec_26_2008	79.34	80.54	83.53	83.56	83.4	83.77	85.6(2.56%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	42	30	26	88	5.08	43%	-0.1	34.8	2.73%	0	1.4	82	0
18	Dec_24_2008	79.42	80.25	83.04	83.21	82.89	82.81	83.46(1%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.1	13	-20	-11	85	2.07	43%	-0.03	45.5	2.69%	0	0.9	75	0
19	Dec_23_2008	79.44	80.09	82.69	83.6	83.23	83.02	82.63(-0.99%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	18	-30	-11	103	6.32	43%	-0.08	62.4	2.69%	0	0.8	70	0
20	Dec_22_2008	79.5	79.99	82.13	83.97	83.97	82.97	83.46(1%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	23	-80	-7	113	6.7	46%	-0.08	79.5	2.69%	0	1.1	69	0

21	Dec_19_2008	79.56	79.74	81.44	83.8	83.95	83.43	82.63(-1.48%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.4	10	-40	-23	107	9.14	49%	-0.09	89.4	2.73%	0	0.9	71	0
22	Dec_18_2008	79.63	79.3	80.68	83.43	83.83	84.96	83.87(-1.83%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	45	110	24	107	17.26	47%	-0.08	84.2	2.76%	0	1.4	56	0
23	Dec_17_2008	79.69	78.73	79.85	82.79	82.94	84.48	85.43(1.15%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	65	140	54	98	22.16	54%	-0.06	79.3	2.78%	0	1.9	60	0
24	Dec_16_2008	79.74	78.07	78.89	81.65	81.83	82.7	84.46(2.25%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	47	80	43	60	18.69	54%	-0.1	73.8	3.11%	0	1.9	56	0
25	Dec_15_2008	79.82	77.47	78.09	80.03	80.84	81.4	82.6(2.22%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	30	80	32	25	15.01	55%		62.3	3.1%	0	1.6	52	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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