Trading Signals: GLD Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Wed. Jul. 16, 2008

Trading Signals: GLD Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 18, 2004 - Wed. Jun. 5, 2024)

(SPDR Gold Shares)
GLD latest price $94.4400 (-1.8%) ($94.3400 - $96.5000) on Wed. Jul. 16, 2008.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.46% (three month average)
RSI   75
Latest Price   $94.4400(-1.8%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   GLD advances 0.6% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   GLD advances 2.4% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support GLD advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
TIP(27%)    LQD(17%)    TLT(17%)    USO(15%)    EEM(14%)
Factors Impacting GLD price   GLD will decline at least -0.73% in a week (0% probabilities).
PEJ(0%)    XLY(1%)    XLP(2%)    QQQ(3%)    XLK(4%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.73% (StdDev 1.46%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -1.9%

5 Day Moving Average   $95.04(-0.63%)
10 Day Moving Average   $93.49(1.02%)
20 Day Moving Average   $91.55(3.16%)
To recent high   -1.8%
To recent low   12.4%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. GLD price fluctuates within 3% (three month std-dev: 1.46%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 2 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: -1.37%(100%) Sample size 2 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: -2.35%(100%) Sample size 2 Average positive next weekly return: 0.18%(50%) Average negative next weekly return: -3.39%(50%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20080816

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jul_16_2008	90.58	91.55	93.49	95.04	95.58	95.9	94.44(-1.8%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	40	40	18	107	19.9	51%	0.01	80.3	1.46%	0	1.1	75	NAN
2	Jul_15_2008	90.57	91.19	93.31	94.45	94.98	95.97	96.17(0.27%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	84	90	67	135	30.35	53%	0.04	76.2	1.46%	0	1.8	82	NAN
3	Jul_14_2008	90.53	90.72	92.81	93.39	93.68	95.26	95.91(0.79%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.9	96	130	83	135	21.25	53%	0.02	67.7	1.46%	0	1.9	83	NAN
4	Jul_11_2008	90.51	90.21	92.34	92.46	92.45	93.98	95.16(1.74%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	104	120	95	129	26	53%	0.02	54.9	1.45%	0	1.9	70	NAN
5	Jul_10_2008	90.49	89.73	91.87	91.84	91.43	92.1	93.53(2.22%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	62	40	47	106	16.83	51%	0	48.9	1.44%	0	1.5	68	NAN

6	Jul_9_2008	90.49	89.39	91.28	91.76	91.22	90.92	91.5(0.7%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	16	-40	-6	83	11.37	51%	0	51.9	1.42%	0	0.9	64	NAN
7	Jul_8_2008	90.49	89.1	90.91	92	91.6	90.76	90.86(-0.41%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.5	-10	-80	-39	78	11.22	51%	0.01	50.7	1.44%	0	0.7	66	NAN
8	Jul_7_2008	90.48	88.95	90.57	92.1	92.12	91.53	91.23(-0.9%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.4	-5	-40	-35	86	12.3	51%	0.03	53.2	1.44%	0	1	69	NAN
9	Jul_3_2008	90.45	88.83	90.35	92.15	92.26	92.44	92.06(-1.19%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	29	20	-0	117	9.61	51%	0.02	59.4	1.44%	0	1.4	76	NAN
10	Jul_2_2008	90.43	88.54	89.98	91.86	92.03	92.72	93.17(0.55%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	77	60	54	147	11.48	54%	0.04	59	1.43%	0	2.1	83	NAN

11	Jul_1_2008	90.39	88.2	89.47	90.71	91.37	92.08	92.66(1.38%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	85	80	70	129	15.48	50%	0.02	44.8	1.46%	0	2.3	71	NAN
12	Jun_30_2008	90.37	87.89	88.91	89.67	89.98	91.33	91.4(-0.08%)	UD	OpenLong	75	1	65	120	53	100	7.29	48%	0	28.6	1.54%	0	2.1	73	NAN
13	Jun_27_2008	90.37	87.7	88.46	88.81	89.01	90.67	91.47(0.95%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.8	93	140	93	91	14.49	47%	0.02	6.6	1.55%	0	2.6	59	NAN
14	Jun_26_2008	90.35	87.47	87.88	88.31	87.97	88.63	90.61(3.65%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.9	53	40	53	51	18.41	47%	0.01	-16.8	1.55%	0	2.6	53	NAN
15	Jun_25_2008	90.34	87.26	87.37	87.87	87.7	87.35	87.42(-0.06%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.4	-4	-30	-10	13	10.9	46%	0	-54.6	1.49%	0	0.2	54	NAN

16	Jun_24_2008	90.34	87.33	87.33	88.04	88.15	87.31	87.47(0.44%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.5	-16	-60	-25	13	7.4	46%	-0.02	-54.7	1.53%	0	0.1	53	NAN
17	Jun_23_2008	90.36	87.41	87.15	88	88.15	88.05	87.09(-2.09%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.8	-21	-10	-30	5	12.78	46%	-0.02	-54.5	1.53%	0	-0.3	52	NAN
18	Jun_20_2008	90.38	87.6	87.24	87.98	88.22	88.98	88.95(0.6%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	35	70	36	31	10.06	45%	-0.02	-38.3	1.52%	0	1	52	NAN
19	Jun_19_2008	90.4	87.68	87.21	87.36	87.86	88.4	88.42(0.16%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	48	60	54	29	10.53	42%	-0.04	-35.2	1.58%	0	0.5	53	NAN
20	Jun_18_2008	90.44	87.83	87	86.79	87.02	87.46	88.28(1.18%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	15	40	19	1	7.82	40%	-0.03	-22.7	1.63%	0	0.2	56	NAN

21	Jun_17_2008	90.47	87.94	86.83	86.54	86.41	87.32	87.25(0.28%)	RB	SmallLong	20	0.4	19	70	28	-10	5.29	40%	-0.06	-12.8	1.66%	0	-0.4	44	NAN
22	Jun_16_2008	90.52	88.05	86.78	86.2	86.33	86.58	87.01(1.37%)	RB	SmallLong	20	0.4	22	20	37	-24	7	40%	-0.03	-11.8	1.66%	0	-0.5	42	NAN
23	Jun_13_2008	90.55	88.15	86.87	86.4	85.92	85.49	85.83(0.27%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-46	-50	-40	-63	8.43	42%	-0.04	-5.5	1.65%	0	-1.2	34	NAN
24	Jun_12_2008	90.59	88.23	87.04	87.04	86.63	86.09	85.6(-1.63%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-31	-60	-23	-55	9.83	42%	-0.03	3.3	1.66%	0	-1.4	34	NAN
25	Jun_11_2008	90.62	88.24	87.15	87.21	87.37	86.34	87.02(1.72%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-34	-80	-21	-72	10.16	42%		4.6	1.66%	0	-0.6	34	NAN
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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