Trading Signals: FEX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Fri. Feb. 24, 2017

Trading Signals: FEX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Mar. 17, 2014 - Wed. Jul. 26, 2023)

(First Trust Large Cap Core AlphaDEX Fund)
FEX latest price $50.6687 (0.29%) ($50.2877 - $50.6882) on Fri. Feb. 24, 2017.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.5% (three month average)
RSI   85
Latest Price   $50.6687(0.29%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   FEX advances 0.1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   FEX advances 1.4% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Growth stock rally for large cap. Value stock sell-off for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support FEX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
QQQ(19%)    IBB(18%)    IVW(18%)    IYT(18%)    XLV(18%)
Factors Impacting FEX price   FEX will decline at least -0.25% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-19%)    SHY(-11%)    TLT(-10%)    GDX(-7%)    VCIT(-5%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.25% (StdDev 0.5%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.7%

5 Day Moving Average   $50.6(0.14%)
10 Day Moving Average   $50.37(0.59%)
20 Day Moving Average   $49.7(1.95%)
To recent high   -0.1%
To recent low   8.1%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. FEX price fluctuates within 1.51% (three month std-dev: 0.5%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 10 Average positive next day return: 1.36%(30%) Average negative next day return: -0.58%(70%) Sample size 10 Average positive next three day return: 0.79%(50%) Average negative next three day return: -1.35%(50%) Sample size 10 Average positive next weekly return: 1.06%(60%) Average negative next weekly return: -2.09%(40%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20170324

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Feb_24_2017	47.4	49.7	50.37	50.6	50.6	50.56	50.67(0.29%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.1	44	-10	1	171	0.1	83%	0.13	63.6	0.5%	0	1.3	85	0
2	Feb_23_2017	47.34	49.63	50.26	50.53	50.54	50.56	50.52(-0.33%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	51	10	7	184	0.1	83%	0.11	69.7	0.5%	0	1.2	87	0
3	Feb_22_2017	47.29	49.55	50.12	50.5	50.46	50.64	50.69(-0.08%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	78	20	35	206	0.11	83%	0.13	77.7	0.5%	0	1.7	92	0
4	Feb_21_2017	47.23	49.46	49.96	50.39	50.36	50.44	50.73(0.66%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.5	79	10	38	202	0.12	83%	0.15	82.4	0.5%	0	2	90	0
5	Feb_17_2017	47.16	49.33	49.79	50.23	50.21	50.44	50.4(0.16%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	57	10	15	184	0.09	83%	0.13	77.3	0.5%	0	1.7	89	0

6	Feb_16_2017	47.1	49.23	49.66	50.1	50.13	50.28	50.32(-0.12%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	73	20	37	180	0.13	83%	0.11	75	0.51%	0	1.8	77	0
7	Feb_15_2017	47.05	49.13	49.51	49.94	49.97	50.13	50.38(0.51%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	75	20	48	157	0.14	84%	0.11	70.3	0.51%	0	2.2	72	0
8	Feb_14_2017	47	49.03	49.33	49.69	49.75	49.97	50.12(0.35%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	66	30	49	116	0.16	84%	0.11	66	0.51%	0	2.1	68	0
9	Feb_13_2017	46.95	48.93	49.19	49.47	49.5	49.8	49.95(0.4%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	62	40	54	87	0.1	84%	0.11	63.8	0.52%	0	2.2	72	0
10	Feb_10_2017	46.9	48.85	49.06	49.29	49.28	49.52	49.75(0.53%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1.2	56	30	50	72	0.19	85%	0.09	62.2	0.52%	0	2.3	76	0

11	Feb_9_2017	46.86	48.78	48.98	49.16	49.13	49.19	49.49(0.74%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	38	10	30	60	0.11	86%	0.11	60.8	0.52%	0	2	70	0
12	Feb_8_2017	46.81	48.73	48.94	49.02	49.06	49.04	49.13(0.18%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	20	-0	9	52	0.09	85%	0.09	56.1	0.53%	0	1.3	69	0
13	Feb_7_2017	46.77	48.68	48.93	48.93	48.97	49.04	49.04(0%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.3	20	20	8	56	0.15	87%	0.09	54.5	0.53%	0	1.1	63	0
14	Feb_6_2017	46.73	48.64	48.91	48.87	48.9	49.07	49.04(-0.18%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.5	36	30	27	63	0.22	87%	0.11	54.4	0.6%	0	1.2	66	0
15	Feb_3_2017	46.68	48.6	48.84	48.8	48.79	48.87	49.13(0.76%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	27	10	19	50	0.09	87%	0.09	59.1	0.6%	0	1.7	61	0

16	Feb_2_2017	46.64	48.56	48.77	48.77	48.68	48.73	48.75(0.16%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	4	0	-8	40	0.14	82%	0.11	67.7	0.59%	0	0.6	59	0
17	Feb_1_2017	46.59	48.54	48.73	48.85	48.78	48.7	48.68(-0.14%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.6	7	-20	-6	44	0.34	79%	0.09	77.4	0.61%	0	0.5	54	0
18	Jan_31_2017	46.55	48.51	48.7	48.95	48.87	48.64	48.74(0.08%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.7	-6	-40	-25	50	0.11	79%	0.06	80.3	0.62%	0	0.7	59	0
19	Jan_30_2017	46.52	48.46	48.66	48.96	49	48.86	48.71(-0.54%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.8	4	-20	-14	59	0.08	79%	0.11	75.8	0.62%	0	0.8	61	0
20	Jan_27_2017	46.47	48.41	48.64	48.88	48.98	49.11	48.97(-0.36%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	28	20	15	67	0.08	79%	0.06	53.9	0.61%	0	1.5	60	0

21	Jan_26_2017	46.44	48.36	48.57	48.77	48.79	49.13	49.14(-0.04%)	UD	OpenLong	75	1	50	50	44	69	0.12	79%	0.06	39	0.61%	0	2.1	66	0
22	Jan_25_2017	46.41	48.31	48.5	48.59	48.6	48.86	49.16(0.7%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.7	52	40	52	51	0.14	79%	0.09	31.4	0.61%	0	2.5	59	0
23	Jan_24_2017	46.37	48.26	48.4	48.44	48.41	48.46	48.82(1.09%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	23	10	21	29	0.11	78%	0.04	24.1	0.62%	0	2	63	0
24	Jan_23_2017	46.35	48.22	48.33	48.32	48.41	48.35	48.3(-0.24%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	2	0	-3	16	0.22	76%	0.06	11.5	0.61%	0	0.3	63	0
25	Jan_20_2017	46.32	48.21	48.34	48.36	48.33	48.36	48.41(0.34%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	12	0	4	35	0.09	76%		19.2	0.6%	0	0.8	62	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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