Trading Signals: FEX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. Dec. 5, 2016

Trading Signals: FEX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Mar. 17, 2014 - Wed. Jul. 26, 2023)

(First Trust Large Cap Core AlphaDEX Fund)
FEX latest price $47.2436 (0.81%) ($47.0879 - $47.3409) on Mon. Dec. 5, 2016.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.76% (three month average)
RSI   69
Latest Price   $47.2436(0.81%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   FEX advances 0.1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   FEX advances 0.5% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based rally for large cap. Broad based rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support FEX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
QQQ(19%)    IBB(18%)    IBUY(18%)    IVW(18%)    IWF(18%)
Factors Impacting FEX price   FEX will decline at least -0.38% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-19%)    SHY(-11%)    TLT(-10%)    GDX(-7%)    VCIT(-5%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.38% (StdDev 0.76%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.3%

5 Day Moving Average   $47.04(0.43%)
10 Day Moving Average   $47.1(0.3%)
20 Day Moving Average   $46.58(1.42%)
To recent high   -0.3%
To recent low   7.8%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. FEX price fluctuates within 1.61% (three month std-dev: 0.76%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 5 Average positive next day return: 1.39%(20%) Average negative next day return: -0.64%(80%) Sample size 5 Average positive next three day return: 1.39%(20%) Average negative next three day return: -0.97%(80%) Sample size 5 Average positive next weekly return: 1.38%(40%) Average negative next weekly return: -1.6%(60%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20170105

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Dec_5_2016	45.43	46.58	47.1	47.04	47.09	47.05	47.24(0.81%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	15	-0	7	39	0.1	61%	0.04	95.7	0.76%	0	0.9	69	0
2	Dec_2_2016	45.41	46.42	47.1	47.01	47.08	46.97	46.86(-0.06%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.2	-5	-10	-19	39	0.07	60%	0.04	72.8	0.76%	0	0.5	70	0
3	Dec_1_2016	45.39	46.28	47.05	47.12	47.15	47.13	46.89(-0.41%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	9	-0	-11	69	0.15	60%	0.04	64.4	0.76%	0	0.6	72	0
4	Nov_30_2016	45.37	46.14	47.02	47.12	47.24	47.18	47.09(-0.08%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	26	-10	2	99	0.11	60%	0.04	58.2	0.75%	0	0.8	79	0
5	Nov_29_2016	45.35	46	46.97	47.19	47.21	47.17	47.13(0.08%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0	27	-0	-6	126	0.17	60%	0.04	55.9	0.75%	0	0.9	84	0

6	Nov_28_2016	45.33	45.88	46.89	47.17	47.19	47.29	47.09(-0.66%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	46	20	10	153	0.08	60%	0.07	54.2	0.76%	0	1	84	0
7	Nov_25_2016	45.3	45.75	46.77	47.09	47.12	47.25	47.4(0.33%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	64	20	22	190	0.12	60%	0.13	51.9	0.75%	0	1.4	93	0
8	Nov_23_2016	45.24	45.6	46.62	46.98	46.97	47.1	47.24(0.27%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	70	20	21	215	0.14	60%	0.09	50.8	0.75%	0	1.4	93	0
9	Nov_22_2016	45.2	45.46	46.44	46.82	46.85	47	47.12(0.23%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	75	20	23	230	0.17	60%	0.04	48.8	0.75%	0	1.5	89	0
10	Nov_21_2016	45.18	45.34	46.23	46.72	46.69	46.84	47.01(0.69%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	76	20	23	236	0.11	60%	0.07	50.2	0.75%	0	1.6	81	0

11	Nov_18_2016	45.15	45.23	46.02	46.56	46.57	46.7	46.69(-0.29%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	77	20	26	231	0.11	60%	0.07	52.9	0.75%	0	1.5	72	0
12	Nov_17_2016	45.12	45.13	45.74	46.4	46.42	46.54	46.83(0.82%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	73	20	27	211	0.23	60%	0.09	53.8	0.75%	0	1.9	75	0
13	Nov_16_2016	45.08	45.02	45.45	46.2	46.2	46.44	46.45(-0.38%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	67	40	27	188	0.1	58%	0.11	55.1	0.74%	0	1.8	73	0
14	Nov_15_2016	45.03	44.94	45.2	46.01	46.04	46.3	46.62(0.84%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	86	40	57	171	0.28	58%	0.11	54.9	0.74%	0	2.3	71	0
15	Nov_14_2016	44.98	44.83	44.95	45.67	45.7	45.96	46.23(0.74%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	64	40	43	127	0.11	56%	0.09	48.9	0.74%	0	2.2	67	0

16	Nov_11_2016	44.94	44.73	44.78	45.39	45.36	45.78	45.89(0.15%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	71	60	61	102	0.27	54%	0.04	35.5	0.73%	0	2.1	59	0
17	Nov_10_2016	44.92	44.66	44.63	44.97	45.07	45.43	45.82(0.77%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.8	74	60	78	60	0.21	54%	0.04	10.5	0.74%	0	2.5	61	0
18	Nov_9_2016	44.9	44.59	44.48	44.57	44.59	44.93	45.47(1.17%)	N/A	N/A	0	2.3	34	50	45	-0	1.03	52%	0.04	-25.3	0.73%	0	2.3	56	0
19	Nov_8_2016	44.88	44.54	44.38	44.27	44.31	44.71	44.95(0.3%)	N/A	N/A	0	2	28	70	49	-35	0.18	49%	0.04	-61.8	0.72%	0	1.2	48	0
20	Nov_7_2016	44.86	44.52	44.35	44.13	44.12	44.25	44.81(2.29%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.8	6	20	27	-58	0.14	49%	0.02	-72.3	0.72%	0	0.8	51	0

21	Nov_4_2016	44.85	44.54	44.36	44.1	44.09	43.91	43.81(0%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.8	-38	-30	-24	-79	0.13	40%	0.02	-74.1	0.66%	0	-1.9	42	0
22	Nov_3_2016	44.84	44.61	44.47	44.23	44.27	44	43.81(-0.33%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-43	-40	-36	-63	0.1	40%	0.02	-71.1	0.66%	0	-2.2	39	0
23	Nov_2_2016	44.83	44.69	44.58	44.36	44.42	44.27	43.96(-0.75%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.2	-39	-20	-37	-43	0.17	37%	0.02	-64.5	0.67%	0	-2.1	41	0
24	Nov_1_2016	44.82	44.75	44.68	44.51	44.57	44.54	44.29(-0.76%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-11	-0	-10	-13	0.28	39%	0.02	-64.2	0.68%	0	-1.5	42	0
25	Oct_31_2016	44.81	44.79	44.72	44.6	44.62	44.57	44.63(0.35%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-8	-10	-10	-1	0.11	41%		-59.7	0.67%	0	-0.5	50	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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