Trading Signals: FEX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Wed. Feb. 4, 2015

Trading Signals: FEX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Mar. 17, 2014 - Wed. Jul. 26, 2023)

(First Trust Large Cap Core AlphaDEX Fund)
FEX latest price $43.5245 (-0.65%) ($43.4389 - $43.8200) on Wed. Feb. 4, 2015.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.93% (three month average)
RSI   61
Latest Price   $43.5245(-0.65%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   FEX advances 0.4% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   FEX advances 0.8% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Value stocks sell-off for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support FEX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
QQQ(30%)    SPY(30%)    VT(30%)    IVE(29%)    XLV(29%)
Factors Impacting FEX price   FEX will decline at least -0.465% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-30%)    TLT(-15%)    SHY(-14%)    GLD(-7%)    BND(-7%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.465% (StdDev 0.93%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -0.2%

5 Day Moving Average   $43.14(0.89%)
10 Day Moving Average   $43.18(0.8%)
20 Day Moving Average   $42.93(1.38%)
To recent high   -1.2%
To recent low   5.3%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. FEX price fluctuates within 1.14% (three month std-dev: 0.93%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 1 Average positive next day return: 1.21%(100%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 1 Average positive next three day return: 2.87%(100%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 1 Average positive next weekly return: 2.76%(100%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20150304

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Feb_4_2015	42.16	42.93	43.18	43.14	43.1	43.56	43.52(-0.65%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.8	47	70	41	65	0.16	55%	0.02	7	0.93%	0	1.2	61	0
2	Feb_3_2015	42.15	42.86	43.11	42.95	42.88	43.11	43.81(1.81%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.7	41	30	36	55	0.51	55%	0.05	-20.5	0.92%	0	1.9	61	0
3	Feb_2_2015	42.13	42.79	42.99	42.83	42.74	43.11	43.03(1.45%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.4	0	-20	-9	28	0.23	52%	0.02	-44.8	0.9%	0	0.5	54	0
4	Jan_30_2015	42.12	42.8	42.95	42.93	42.85	42.64	42.41(-1.21%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1.1	-15	-40	-27	23	0.15	53%	0	-41.8	0.89%	0	-0.8	44	0
5	Jan_29_2015	42.12	42.85	42.91	43.11	43.04	42.84	42.93(0.87%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.4	-12	-40	-22	17	0.34	55%	0.02	-34.5	0.96%	0	0.2	44	0

6	Jan_28_2015	42.11	42.89	42.91	43.21	43.21	43.06	42.56(-1.54%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1.3	-5	-20	-15	25	0.28	57%	0	-26.3	0.96%	0	-0.7	51	0
7	Jan_27_2015	42.11	42.96	42.85	43.28	43.27	43.25	43.23(-0.66%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	14	-0	4	44	0.24	61%	0.02	-16.3	0.95%	0	0.5	61	0
8	Jan_26_2015	42.1	42.99	42.79	43.15	43.15	43.36	43.52(0.53%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	25	30	19	41	0.22	61%	0.02	-15.3	0.94%	0	0.9	58	0
9	Jan_23_2015	42.09	43	42.79	42.96	42.95	43.29	43.29(-0.37%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.5	39	50	42	31	0.27	63%	0.02	-11.1	0.94%	0	0.5	48	0
10	Jan_22_2015	42.08	43	42.73	42.68	42.66	42.94	43.45(1.2%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	30	40	37	7	0.41	63%	0.02	-6.2	0.95%	0	0.7	49	0

11	Jan_21_2015	42.07	43.02	42.64	42.45	42.42	42.6	42.93(0.92%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.7	7	30	21	-35	0.19	64%	0	-2	0.95%	0	-0.1	41	0
12	Jan_20_2015	42.07	43.05	42.64	42.36	42.26	42.38	42.54(-0.13%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-15	10	5	-73	0.29	66%	0	5.8	0.98%	0	-0.8	36	0
13	Jan_16_2015	42.07	43.08	42.56	42.38	42.3	42.23	42.6(1.75%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.3	-28	-20	-5	-95	0.36	67%	0.02	12.2	0.98%	0	-0.7	38	0
14	Jan_15_2015	42.06	43.07	42.63	42.47	42.45	42.15	41.87(-1.03%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-53	-50	-35	-108	0.16	65%	-0.02	17.2	0.97%	0	-1.8	31	0
15	Jan_14_2015	42.07	43.06	42.79	42.79	42.71	42.37	42.31(-0.38%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-46	-60	-31	-89	0.25	68%	0	20.5	0.96%	0	-1.2	35	0

16	Jan_13_2015	42.07	43.03	42.94	42.85	43	42.74	42.47(-0.38%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-27	-30	-11	-74	0.23	63%	0	12.9	0.96%	0	-0.8	39	0
17	Jan_12_2015	42.07	43.01	43.09	42.78	42.96	43.04	42.63(-1.08%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-22	30	-6	-70	0.24	63%	0.02	1.1	0.99%	0	-0.5	41	0
18	Jan_9_2015	42.06	43	43.22	42.76	42.84	43.25	43.1(-0.79%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.4	1	70	19	-53	0.34	58%	0.02	-3.1	1%	0	0.1	50	0
19	Jan_8_2015	42.05	42.96	43.29	42.82	42.73	42.88	43.44(1.91%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.7	9	20	21	-27	0.22	60%	0.02	-6.6	1.04%	0	0.6	65	0
20	Jan_7_2015	42.04	42.93	43.31	42.81	42.78	42.43	42.62(1.23%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-25	-60	-27	-18	0.36	55%	0.02	-7	1.03%	0	-0.4	67	0

21	Jan_6_2015	42.03	42.94	43.42	43.06	43.07	42.57	42.11(-1.01%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-1.1	-39	-80	-56	13	0.84	53%	0	1.5	1.04%	0	-1	60	0
22	Jan_5_2015	42.03	42.99	43.58	43.45	43.47	43.13	42.54(-1.97%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1.1	-15	-50	-43	71	0.32	53%	0.02	15.4	1.03%	0	-0.5	62	0
23	Jan_2_2015	42.02	43.03	43.66	43.73	43.77	43.57	43.39(-0.04%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.4	14	-30	-20	117	0.46	58%	0.07	23.8	1%	0	0.4	61	0
24	Dec_31_2014	41.99	43.01	43.55	43.82	43.9	43.81	43.41(-0.97%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.5	23	-10	-13	131	0.18	55%	0.07	27.7	1%	0	0.5	64	0
25	Dec_30_2014	41.96	42.99	43.37	43.89	43.94	43.98	43.84(-0.52%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	33	10	3	124	0.17	55%		28	1.02%	0	1.1	58	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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