Trading Signals: FEX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Fri. Jan. 23, 2015

Trading Signals: FEX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Mar. 17, 2014 - Wed. Jul. 26, 2023)

(First Trust Large Cap Core AlphaDEX Fund)
FEX latest price $43.2866 (-0.37%) ($43.2668 - $43.5245) on Fri. Jan. 23, 2015.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.94% (three month average)
RSI   48
Latest Price   $43.2866(-0.37%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   FEX advances 0.7% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   FEX advances 0.2% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Value stocks sell-off for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support FEX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
QQQ(30%)    SPY(30%)    VT(30%)    IVE(29%)    VYM(29%)
Factors Impacting FEX price   FEX will decline at least -0.47% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-30%)    TLT(-15%)    SHY(-14%)    BND(-8%)    GLD(-7%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.47% (StdDev 0.94%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -0.4%

5 Day Moving Average   $42.96(0.76%)
10 Day Moving Average   $42.73(1.3%)
20 Day Moving Average   $43(0.67%)
To recent high   -1.8%
To recent low   6.2%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. FEX price fluctuates within 1.44% (three month std-dev: 0.94%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 1 Average positive next day return: 1.32%(100%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 1 Average positive next three day return: 2.38%(100%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 1 Average positive next weekly return: 3.03%(100%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20150223

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jan_23_2015	42.09	43		42.96	42.95	43.29	43.29(-0.37%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.5	39	50	42	31	0.27	63%	0.02	-11.1	0.94%	0	0.5	48	0
2	Jan_22_2015	42.08	43	42.73	42.68	42.66	42.94	43.45(1.2%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	30	40	37	7	0.41	63%	0.02	-6.2	0.95%	0	0.7	49	0
3	Jan_21_2015	42.07	43.02	42.64	42.45	42.42	42.6	42.93(0.92%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.7	7	30	21	-35	0.19	64%	0	-2	0.95%	0	-0.1	41	0
4	Jan_20_2015	42.07	43.05	42.64	42.36	42.26	42.38	42.54(-0.13%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-15	10	5	-73	0.29	66%	0	5.8	0.98%	0	-0.8	36	0
5	Jan_16_2015	42.07	43.08	42.56	42.38	42.3	42.23	42.6(1.75%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.3	-28	-20	-5	-95	0.36	67%	0.02	12.2	0.98%	0	-0.7	38	0

6	Jan_15_2015	42.06	43.07	42.63	42.47	42.45	42.15	41.87(-1.03%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-53	-50	-35	-108	0.16	65%	-0.02	17.2	0.97%	0	-1.8	31	0
7	Jan_14_2015	42.07	43.06	42.79	42.79	42.71	42.37	42.31(-0.38%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-46	-60	-31	-89	0.25	68%	0	20.5	0.96%	0	-1.2	35	0
8	Jan_13_2015	42.07	43.03	42.94	42.85	43	42.74	42.47(-0.38%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-27	-30	-11	-74	0.23	63%	0	12.9	0.96%	0	-0.8	39	0
9	Jan_12_2015	42.07	43.01	43.09	42.78	42.96	43.04	42.63(-1.08%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-22	30	-6	-70	0.24	63%	0.02	1.1	0.99%	0	-0.5	41	0
10	Jan_9_2015	42.06	43	43.22	42.76	42.84	43.25	43.1(-0.79%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.4	1	70	19	-53	0.34	58%	0.02	-3.1	1%	0	0.1	50	0

11	Jan_8_2015	42.05	42.96	43.29	42.82	42.73	42.88	43.44(1.91%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.7	9	20	21	-27	0.22	60%	0.02	-6.6	1.04%	0	0.6	65	0
12	Jan_7_2015	42.04	42.93	43.31	42.81	42.78	42.43	42.62(1.23%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-25	-60	-27	-18	0.36	55%	0.02	-7	1.03%	0	-0.4	67	0
13	Jan_6_2015	42.03	42.94	43.42	43.06	43.07	42.57	42.11(-1.01%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-1.1	-39	-80	-56	13	0.84	53%	0	1.5	1.04%	0	-1	60	0
14	Jan_5_2015	42.03	42.99	43.58	43.45	43.47	43.13	42.54(-1.97%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1.1	-15	-50	-43	71	0.32	53%	0.02	15.4	1.03%	0	-0.5	62	0
15	Jan_2_2015	42.02	43.03	43.66	43.73	43.77	43.57	43.39(-0.04%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.4	14	-30	-20	117	0.46	58%	0.07	23.8	1%	0	0.4	61	0

16	Dec_31_2014	41.99	43.01	43.55	43.82	43.9	43.81	43.41(-0.97%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.5	23	-10	-13	131	0.18	55%	0.07	27.7	1%	0	0.5	64	0
17	Dec_30_2014	41.96	42.99	43.37	43.89	43.94	43.98	43.84(-0.52%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	33	10	3	124	0.17	55%	0.07	28	1.02%	0	1.1	58	0
18	Dec_29_2014	41.93	42.92	43.15	43.84	43.9	43.99	44.07(0.32%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	38	20	13	112	0.12	55%	0.07	23.6	1.02%	0	1.5	61	0
19	Dec_26_2014	41.9	42.87	42.92	43.73	43.78	43.9	43.92(0.2%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	33	20	15	88	0.09	56%	0.12	22.4	1.02%	0	1.4	55	0
20	Dec_24_2014	41.85	42.83	42.76	43.58	43.64	43.81	43.84(0.17%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	41	30	29	75	0.13	55%	0.07	20.2	1.03%	0	1.4	55	0

21	Dec_23_2014	41.82	42.79	42.59	43.25	43.42	43.65	43.76(0.37%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	45	50	45	44	0.37	54%	0.07	10.8	1.03%	0	1.4	53	0
22	Dec_22_2014	41.79	42.77	42.48	42.76	42.94	43.48	43.6(0.2%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	37	100	47	7	0.33	52%	0.07	-4.6	1.03%	0	1.3	55	0
23	Dec_19_2014	41.76	42.74	42.39	42.36	42.44	43.18	43.52(0.77%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.8	47	130	67	-14	0.19	52%	0.07	-18.4	1.04%	0	1.2	57	0
24	Dec_18_2014	41.73	42.71	42.33	42	42.01	42.39	43.19(2.38%)	N/A	N/A	0	2	24	60	48	-48	0.37	52%	0.02	-31.5	1.04%	0	0.8	50	0
25	Dec_17_2014	41.72	42.68	42.31	41.85	41.76	41.69	42.18(2.06%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.5	-23	-20	-1	-87	0.26	49%		-38.3	1%	0	-0.8	38	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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