Trading Signals: FEX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Oct. 30, 2014

Trading Signals: FEX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Mar. 17, 2014 - Wed. Jul. 26, 2023)

(First Trust Large Cap Core AlphaDEX Fund)
FEX latest price $42.6369 (3.11%) ($42.4475 - $42.6643) on Thu. Oct. 30, 2014.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.95% (three month average)
RSI   74
Latest Price   $42.6369(3.11%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   FEX advances 0.9% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   FEX advances 3.1% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support FEX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
QQQ(31%)    SPY(31%)    VT(31%)    XLV(30%)    XLB(29%)
Factors Impacting FEX price   FEX will decline at least -0.475% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-31%)    TLT(-16%)    SHY(-14%)    GLD(-7%)    TIP(-6%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.475% (StdDev 0.95%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.1%

5 Day Moving Average   $41.48(2.79%)
10 Day Moving Average   $40.85(4.37%)
20 Day Moving Average   $40.34(5.69%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   10.1%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. FEX price fluctuates within 2.43% (three month std-dev: 0.95%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 1 Average positive next day return: 0.86%(100%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 1 Average positive next three day return: 1.47%(100%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 1 Average positive next weekly return: 1.18%(100%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20141130

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Oct_30_2014	41.43	40.34	40.85	41.48	41.51	41.97	42.64(3.11%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	107	80	68	224	0.08	54%	0.02	16.9	0.95%	0	2.3	74	INF
2	Oct_29_2014	41.42	40.22	40.51	41.1	41.09	41.29	41.35(-0.16%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	70	30	31	185	0.17	49%	0	3.8	0.87%	0	1.3	60	INF
3	Oct_28_2014	41.42	40.17	40.26	40.88	40.94	41.05	41.42(1.24%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	51	20	24	131	0.24	49%	0	-10.1	0.87%	0	1.5	51	INF
4	Oct_27_2014	41.42	40.15	40.01	40.72	40.76	40.89	40.91(-0.38%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	41	30	22	97	0.53	47%	0	-17.4	0.86%	0	0.9	53	INF
5	Oct_24_2014	41.42	40.15	39.79	40.48	40.62	40.83	41.06(0.75%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	46	50	45	50	0.28	46%	0	-26.6	0.86%	0	1	49	INF

6	Oct_23_2014	41.42	40.17	39.62	40.12	40.25	40.64	40.76(1.21%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.7	31	80	44	-10	0.48	46%	0	-41.5	0.85%	0	0.7	46	INF
7	Oct_22_2014	41.42	40.19	39.52	39.83	39.89	40.4	40.27(-0.82%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.5	34	90	60	-44	0.43	44%	0	-54.1	0.84%	0	0.1	46	INF
8	Oct_21_2014	41.42	40.26	39.56	39.53	39.59	39.87	40.6(2.24%)	RB	SmallLong	20	1.1	39	50	73	-64	0.45	44%	0	-62.6	0.84%	0	0.4	49	INF
9	Oct_20_2014	41.42	40.3	39.51	39.2	38.92	39.38	39.71(1.08%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.5	-20	60	21	-144	0.18	40%	-0.02	-72.1	0.79%	0	-0.6	37	INF
10	Oct_17_2014	41.43	40.39	39.61	39	38.81	39.32	39.28(0%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.3	-0	80	55	-166	0.23	38%	-0.05	-75.2	0.78%	0	-1	31	INF

11	Oct_16_2014	41.45	40.54	39.77	39.03	38.76	38.46	39.28(1.27%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-51	-70	-4	-191	0.23	39%	-0.02	-71.7	0.8%	0	-1.2	31	INF
12	Oct_15_2014	41.46	40.69	39.9	39.18	38.86	38.31	38.79(-0.35%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-135	-120	-102	-235	1.2	36%	-0.02	-69	0.78%	0	-1.7	29	INF
13	Oct_14_2014	41.47	40.87	40.09	39.6	39.56	39.06	38.93(0.54%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-90	-90	-55	-196	0.21	36%	-0.07	-62.7	0.78%	0	-1.9	26	INF
14	Oct_13_2014	41.5	41.04	40.32	39.87	39.94	39.42	38.72(-1.87%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.2	-108	-90	-82	-187	0.24	36%	-0.02	-61.1	0.78%	0	-2.5	28	INF
15	Oct_10_2014	41.51	41.21	40.6	40.3	40.29	40.06	39.45(-1.35%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-82	-40	-60	-148	0.46	38%	-0.02	-62.4	0.75%	0	-2.3	30	INF

16	Oct_9_2014	41.52	41.34	40.81	40.61	40.61	40.47	39.99(-2.27%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-41	-20	-16	-114	0.29	40%	0	-62.1	0.74%	0	-1.9	30	INF
17	Oct_8_2014	41.52	41.46	40.94	40.73	40.73	40.52	40.92(1.65%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.3	-40	-40	-10	-131	0.21	43%	0.05	-64.3	0.68%	0	-0.8	34	INF
18	Oct_7_2014	41.5	41.52	41.02	40.66	40.71	40.74	40.26(-1.44%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-65	10	-33	-162	0.19	38%	0	-70.4	0.66%	0	-2	28	INF
19	Oct_6_2014	41.5	41.62	41.15	40.85	40.8	40.94	40.85(-0.42%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0	-31	20	7	-145	0.33	40%	0.05	-71.9	0.64%	0	-1.3	31	INF
20	Oct_3_2014	41.48	41.7	41.24	40.96	40.89	40.69	41.02(1.05%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-42	-40	-9	-142	0.41	40%	0.02	-68.3	0.64%	0	-1.2	39	INF

21	Oct_2_2014	41.47	41.78	41.36	41.05	40.99	40.66	40.59(0.07%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-79	-60	-55	-149	0.83	37%	0.02	-64.7	0.63%	0	-2.1	32	INF
22	Oct_1_2014	41.46	41.87	41.53	41.17	41.22	41.1	40.56(-1.56%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.2	-66	-20	-45	-130	0.4	37%	0	-65.6	0.63%	0	-2.6	28	INF
23	Sep_30_2014	41.46	41.97	41.7	41.43	41.38	41.32	41.21(-0.53%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-30	-10	-10	-90	0.21	40%	0.02	-61.8	0.61%	0	-1.8	36	INF
24	Sep_29_2014	41.45	42.04	41.81	41.49	41.45	41.34	41.42(-0.11%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-35	-20	-18	-84	0.19	40%	0.05	-61.1	0.61%	0	-1.5	40	INF
25	Sep_26_2014	41.43	42.1	41.86	41.56	41.54	41.44	41.47(0.64%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-45	-20	-29	-91	0.19	40%		-54.4	0.61%	0	-1.7	36	INF
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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