Trading Signals: FEX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. Aug. 18, 2014

Trading Signals: FEX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Mar. 17, 2014 - Wed. Jul. 26, 2023)

(First Trust Large Cap Core AlphaDEX Fund)
FEX latest price $41.6456 (0.78%) ($41.4756 - $41.6833) on Mon. Aug. 18, 2014.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.56% (three month average)
RSI   46
Latest Price   $41.6456(0.78%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   FEX advances 0.3% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   FEX advances 0.2% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support FEX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
QQQ(32%)    SPY(32%)    VT(31%)    XLV(31%)    XLB(29%)
Factors Impacting FEX price   FEX will decline at least -0.28% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-32%)    TLT(-16%)    SHY(-14%)    TIP(-7%)    GLD(-7%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.28% (StdDev 0.56%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.2%

5 Day Moving Average   $41.27(0.91%)
10 Day Moving Average   $41(1.57%)
20 Day Moving Average   $41.27(0.91%)
To recent high   -1.4%
To recent low   5.5%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. FEX price fluctuates within 1.26% (three month std-dev: 0.56%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 1 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: -0.35%(100%) Sample size 1 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: -1.34%(100%) Sample size 1 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: -6.24%(100%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20140918

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Aug_18_2014	40.67		41	41.27	41.31	41.46	41.65(0.78%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	35	30	36	32	0.11	42%	0.07	-19.8	0.56%	0	0.7	46	0
2	Aug_15_2014	40.64	41.27	40.94	41.14	41.14	41.29	41.32(0.02%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.3	15	30	24	-11	0.1	36%	0.05	-26.6	0.56%	0	0.1	39	0
3	Aug_14_2014	40.62	41.27	40.88	41.05	41.08	41.15	41.32(0.41%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.5	18	10	38	-44	0.31	36%	0.07	-31.3	0.57%	0	0.1	40	0
4	Aug_13_2014	40.59	41.29	40.83	40.86	40.92	41.15	41.15(0.58%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.5	-16	20	16	-110	0.11	36%	0.02	-42.7	0.57%	0	-0.3	34	0
5	Aug_12_2014	40.58	41.33	40.87	40.75	40.79	41	40.91(-0.28%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-16	40	24	-135	0.14	39%	0.05	-47.4	0.57%	0	-0.8	32	0

6	Aug_11_2014	40.56	41.37	40.94	40.7	40.69	40.84	41.02(0.35%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.6	-17	30	25	-144	0.1	39%	0.05	-50.4	0.59%	0	-0.6	35	0
7	Aug_8_2014	40.54	41.41	41.02	40.71	40.62	40.58	40.88(1.29%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-36	-10	2	-151	0.12	39%	0.02	-52.3	0.59%	0	-1	37	0
8	Aug_7_2014	40.53	41.45	41.11	40.68	40.69	40.54	40.36(-0.54%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-59	-30	-22	-171	0.17	33%	0.02	-59.4	0.57%	0	-2.1	27	0
9	Aug_6_2014	40.52	41.53	41.28	40.78	40.74	40.66	40.58(-0.16%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-70	-20	-43	-152	0.13	33%	0.02	-65.5	0.57%	0	-2	40	0
10	Aug_5_2014	40.51	41.59	41.43	41	40.89	40.84	40.64(-1.03%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-52	-20	-30	-116	0.26	33%	0.02	-63.6	0.57%	0	-2.3	33	0

11	Aug_4_2014	40.5	41.65	41.57	41.21	41.13	40.83	41.07(0.74%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-49	-60	-36	-87	0.23	36%	0.02	-59.3	0.56%	0	-1.6	42	0
12	Aug_1_2014	40.49	41.7	41.64	41.38	41.37	40.93	40.77(-0.19%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.8	-82	-80	-81	-86	0.29	31%	0	-47.6	0.55%	0	-2.7	35	0
13	Jul_31_2014	40.49	41.77	41.75	41.6	41.66	41.43	40.84(-1.95%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-2.7	-63	-30	-68	-47	0.3	31%	0.02	-28.4	0.55%	0	-3.3	40	0
14	Jul_30_2014	40.48	41.83	41.82	41.86	41.86	41.81	41.66(-0.14%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1.1	-14	-10	-20	4	0.09	38%	0.02	2.2	0.49%	0	-0.9	51	0
15	Jul_29_2014	40.47	41.83	41.82	41.93	41.95	41.88	41.71(-0.5%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1.2	-3	-10	-11	22	0.08	38%	0.02	26.7	0.5%	0	-0.8	47	0

16	Jul_28_2014	40.46	41.83	41.85	41.98	41.98	41.92	41.92(0.14%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	3	-10	-8	34	0.12	40%	0.05	35.6	0.49%	0	0.3	55	0
17	Jul_25_2014	40.44	41.86	41.84	41.94	41.99	42.03	41.86(-0.63%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.4	10	10	3	29	0.26	36%	0.02	28.9	0.49%	0	0	48	0
18	Jul_24_2014	40.43	41.85	41.83	41.93	41.93	42.04	42.13(0.2%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	27	20	29	22	0.21	39%	0.05	26.7	0.5%	0	1.5	46	0
19	Jul_23_2014	40.41	41.83	41.78	41.78	41.82	41.96	42.04(0.27%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.4	15	30	24	-12	0.08	39%	0.05	7	0.5%	0	1.2	50	0
20	Jul_22_2014	40.39	41.81	41.75	41.75	41.72	41.81	41.93(0.45%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.9	8	10	18	-24	0.15	39%	0.05	6.7	0.5%	0	0.6	46	0

21	Jul_21_2014	40.37	41.81	41.73	41.71	41.71	41.68	41.74(-0.11%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.2	-10	-10	1	-43	0.09	39%	0.02	15.6	0.5%	0	-0.3	49	0
22	Jul_18_2014	40.36	41.81	41.75	41.73	41.72	41.64	41.79(0.98%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.3	-19	-10	-11	-43	0.08	39%	0.05	35.6	0.5%	0	-0.1	50	0
23	Jul_17_2014	40.34	41.8	41.79	41.71	41.77	41.74	41.38(-1.31%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.7	-19	-0	-13	-35	0.12	31%	0.02	53.3	0.49%	0	-2.2	46	0
24	Jul_16_2014	40.33	41.82	41.85	41.77	41.78	41.81	41.93(0.48%)	N/A	N/A	0	1	3	10	8	-11	0.12	46%	0.05	89.5	0.46%	0	0.7	55	0
25	Jul_15_2014	40.31	41.79	41.86	41.75	41.7	41.8	41.73(-0.25%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	4	10	5	1	0.11	43%		77.8	0.47%	0	-0.3	56	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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