Trading Signals: EWJ Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Mar. 4, 2004

Trading Signals: EWJ Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(iShares MSCI Japan ETF)
EWJ latest price $39.4000 (-0.2%) ($39.4000 - $39.6400) on Thu. Mar. 4, 2004.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.2% (three month average)
RSI   61
Latest Price   $39.4000(-0.2%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   EWJ advances 0.8% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   EWJ advances 1.4% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support EWJ advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
EEM(75%)    SPY(75%)    EWG(73%)    EWY(71%)    IWM(69%)
Factors Impacting EWJ price   EWJ will decline at least -0.6% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-22%)    SHY(-15%)    TIP(-6%)    REMX(1%)    LQD(18%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.6% (StdDev 1.2%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -0.1%

5 Day Moving Average   $39.47(-0.18%)
10 Day Moving Average   $38.75(1.68%)
20 Day Moving Average   $38.56(2.18%)
To recent high   -1.6%
To recent low   10.8%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. EWJ price fluctuates within 1.69% (three month std-dev: 1.2%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

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i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Mar_4_2004	37.64	38.56	38.75	39.47	39.58	39.42	39.4(-0.2%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	28	-20	13	74	1.87	63%	0.05	43.2	1.2%	0	1.3	61	0
2	Mar_3_2004	37.62	38.47	38.66	39.17	39.4	39.53	39.48(-0.3%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.5	26	40	16	54	1.73	63%	0	24.9	1.2%	0	1.6	58	0
3	Mar_2_2004	37.62	38.42	38.56	38.82	39	39.75	39.6(-1.1%)	UD	OpenLong	75	1.3	48	150	48	46	3.16	63%	0.05	6.9	1.21%	0	1.9	61	0
4	Mar_1_2004	37.6	38.38	38.49	38.46	38.51	39.27	40.04(3.09%)	UT	OpenLong	75	2.9	64	140	70	44	3.75	67%	0.05	-16.8	1.2%	0	3	67	0
5	Feb_27_2004	37.58	38.29	38.3	38.11	38	38.26	38.84(2.53%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.8	24	40	31	3	1.8	63%	0.03	-51.4	1.19%	0	1.3	54	0

6	Feb_26_2004	37.57	38.28	38.23	37.95	37.92	38.26	37.88(0.42%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-12	-30	-8	-23	1.95	59%	0.03	-78.4	1.16%	0	-1	51	0
7	Feb_25_2004	37.56	38.31	38.29	38.07	38.01	37.75	37.72(-0.32%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-26	-50	-30	-12	1.55	59%	0	-83.8	1.16%	0	-1.6	54	0
8	Feb_24_2004	37.56	38.38	38.35	38.26	38.26	38.1	37.84(-1.15%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-18	-30	-24	-1	1.72	63%	0	-70.2	1.16%	0	-1.4	43	0
9	Feb_23_2004	37.56	38.47	38.37	38.5	38.5	38.27	38.28(0.63%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.5	-6	-40	-11	11	1.35	63%	0	-41.8	1.18%	0	-0.4	44	0
10	Feb_20_2004	37.56	38.51	38.38	38.52	38.65	38.42	38.04(-1.14%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1	-10	-30	-16	8	3.4	63%	0.03	-34.6	1.18%	0	-1	45	0

11	Feb_19_2004	37.55	38.59	38.37	38.52	38.73	38.72	38.48(-0.41%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.1	-1	10	-3	6	1.45	63%	0.05	-24.3	1.18%	0	-0.2	48	0
12	Feb_18_2004	37.53	38.63	38.29	38.54	38.6	38.88	38.64(-1.02%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	10	60	13	2	1.15	63%	0.11	-16.9	1.18%	0	0	52	0
13	Feb_17_2004	37.49	38.63	38.28	38.46	38.47	38.73	39.04(1.67%)	RB	SmallLong	20	1	24	50	33	-2	1.88	56%	0.16	-19	1.17%	0	0.6	47	0
14	Feb_13_2004	37.43	38.66	38.25	38.23	38.27	38.32	38.4(0.73%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-3	10	8	-36	1	49%	0.11	-27.5	1.24%	0	-0.4	37	0
15	Feb_12_2004	37.39	38.68	38.27	38.22	38.11	38.32	38.12(-0.94%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.2	-11	10	1	-46	1.11	53%	0.08	-33.3	1.24%	0	-0.9	42	0

16	Feb_11_2004	37.36	38.72	38.32	38.18	38.12	38.22	38.48(0.63%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.5	-1	10	17	-54	1.18	49%	0.08	-36	1.26%	0	-0.4	39	0
17	Feb_10_2004	37.33	38.73	38.31	38	38.05	38.01	38.24(0.84%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.4	-23	-0	-2	-85	0.59	49%	0.05	-51	1.29%	0	-0.9	41	0
18	Feb_9_2004	37.31	38.77	38.4	38.09	37.94	38.03	37.92(-1.15%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-33	0	-15	-87	1.12	49%	0.05	-50.3	1.3%	0	-1.5	39	0
19	Feb_6_2004	37.29	38.83	38.57	38.28	38.14	38.09	38.36(1.16%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.2	-14	-20	3	-63	1.07	46%	0.05	-44.1	1.29%	0	-0.9	43	0
20	Feb_5_2004	37.27	38.87	38.64	38.34	38.31	37.85	37.92(0.96%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-34	-90	-23	-65	1.8	46%	0.05	-36	1.33%	0	-1.8	46	0

21	Feb_4_2004	37.25	38.93	38.82	38.48	38.49	38.2	37.56(-2.9%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.9	-38	-50	-33	-52	1.53	46%	0.03	-26.8	1.32%	0	-2.9	41	0
22	Feb_3_2004	37.24	39.02	39.01	38.65	38.72	38.76	38.68(-0.51%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-10	10	-5	-23	0.71	50%	0.11	-7.6	1.28%	0	-0.9	52	0
23	Feb_2_2004	37.2	39.02	39.08	38.74	38.75	38.77	38.88(0.62%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.4	-9	0	-6	-16	2.34	50%	0.11	24.2	1.29%	0	-0.5	47	0
24	Jan_30_2004	37.16	39.02	39.11	38.91	38.88	38.68	38.64(0%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.7	-11	-40	-13	-4	0.96	47%	0.13	59.8	1.31%	0	-1.1	49	0
25	Jan_29_2004	37.11	39.06	39.12	39	39.18	38.74	38.64(0.63%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-1	-22	-60	-26	-10	1.56	47%		83.2	1.31%	0	-1.1	45	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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