Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. Dec. 5, 2016

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $397.8000 (2.61%) ($393.0100 - $407.0000) on Mon. Dec. 5, 2016.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   4.16% (three month average)
RSI   73
Latest Price   $397.8000(2.61%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX advances 3% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX advances 6.1% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based rally for large cap. Broad based rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
XLE(92%)    OIH(90%)    XOP(86%)    IWD(74%)    IVE(72%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -2.08% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-23%)    VIXM(-22%)    UUP(-17%)    IPO(-5%)    IGOV(-5%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -2.08% (StdDev 4.16%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.3%

5 Day Moving Average   $376.62(5.62%)
10 Day Moving Average   $367.64(8.2%)
20 Day Moving Average   $348.37(14.19%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   39.5%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.02%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.02% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 7.38% (three month std-dev: 4.16%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 4 Average positive next day return: 0.78%(50%) Average negative next day return: -1.83%(50%) Sample size 4 Average positive next three day return: 1.29%(50%) Average negative next three day return: -0.68%(50%) Sample size 4 Average positive next weekly return: 1.7%(75%) Average negative next weekly return: -1.21%(25%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20170105

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Dec_5_2016	318.82	348.37	367.64	376.62	388.62	392.44	397.8(2.61%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	166	160	169	156	0.21	74%	0.25	81	4.16%	0	1.9	73	INF
2	Dec_2_2016	318.03	343.1	361.44	365.72	371.11	390.09	387.7(0.68%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	130	400	131	126	0.19	74%	0.22	65.4	4.18%	0	1.7	73	INF
3	Dec_1_2016	317.34	338.54	355.86	359.96	362.79	384.8	385.1(0.94%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	407	450	460	246	0.36	74%	0.22	56.5	4.19%	0	1.9	65	INF
4	Nov_30_2016	316.63	333.92	350.99	355.88	353.79	352.14	381.5(15.26%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	158	-50	169	126	0.62	72%	0.19	48.8	4.21%	0	2	65	INF
5	Nov_29_2016	316.04	329.93	347.09	351.38	349.89	340.78	331(-3.58%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-205	-190	-261	-35	0.28	68%	0.1	45	3.77%	0	0	60	INF

6	Nov_28_2016	315.74	328.71	346.39	357.12	357.19	355.45	343.3(-4.35%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.6	-20	-30	-50	72	0.27	68%	0.14	47.9	3.74%	0	0.6	64	INF
7	Nov_25_2016	315.3	327.21	343.85	355.76	357.8	358.99	358.9(-1.59%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	71	40	53	124	0.12	71%	0.29	44.3	3.7%	0	1.4	76	INF
8	Nov_23_2016	314.4	324.97	341.03	350.46	352.38	358.94	364.7(1.59%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	94	150	79	139	0.22	71%	0.23	37.4	3.67%	0	1.9	75	INF
9	Nov_22_2016	313.69	322.52	337.22	345.18	347.58	356.61	359(-0.19%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.7	185	200	184	186	0.24	71%	0.14	30.7	3.67%	0	1.9	75	INF
10	Nov_21_2016	313.24	320.28	332.53	342.54	343.6	345.81	359.7(6.89%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	155	50	149	171	0.27	71%	0.15	29.6	3.7%	0	2.4	68	INF

11	Nov_18_2016	312.76	318.19	327.53	334.46	338.95	338.54	336.5(1.23%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	36	30	14	102	0.17	70%	0.09	21.2	3.61%	0	1.3	64	INF
12	Nov_17_2016	312.47	317.51	323.38	330.06	333.39	341.38	332.4(-1.74%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	81	200	73	103	0.23	70%	0.11	14.3	3.68%	0	1.1	57	INF
13	Nov_16_2016	312.14	317.34	319.97	329.9	327.82	339.36	338.3(-2.17%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.6	202	230	218	153	0.3	70%	0.18	16	3.67%	0	1.5	58	INF
14	Nov_15_2016	311.59	316.88	315.53	327.9	324.9	325.39	345.8(8.3%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	156	-20	169	117	0.31	70%	0.27	13.3	3.66%	0	2.2	59	INF
15	Nov_14_2016	310.75	315.39	311.13	321.24	320.86	316.29	319.3(1.53%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-84	-100	-106	-18	0.22	68%	0.1	-7	3.53%	0	0.3	50	INF

16	Nov_11_2016	310.43	315.2	309.58	319.58	320.09	324.41	314.5(-5.16%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.4	18	100	18	17	0.29	69%	-0.02	-22.8	3.53%	0	-0.1	45	INF
17	Nov_10_2016	310.5	315.52	309.39	315.22	317.24	325.43	331.6(1.01%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	192	200	229	82	0.36	73%	0.08	-37	3.5%	0	1.3	51	INF
18	Nov_9_2016	310.25	315.1	307.57	308.3	308.15	315.78	328.3(5.06%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.7	129	170	163	27	0.32	73%	0.05	-57.5	3.52%	0	1.1	45	INF
19	Nov_8_2016	310.08	315.11	306.38	301.38	301.78	309.05	312.5(0.48%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.9	124	170	165	-1	0.21	71%	0.04	-72.3	3.47%	0	-0.2	34	INF
20	Nov_7_2016	309.97	316.2	306.75	299.78	297.26	300.53	311(6.25%)	RB	SmallLong	20	0.8	59	50	91	-36	0.24	71%	0.06	-63.7	3.5%	0	-0.4	45	INF

21	Nov_4_2016	309.79	317.91	307.75	298.44	296.93	294.51	292.7(-1.45%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-47	-70	-33	-89	0.29	69%	0.03	-61.2	3.44%	0	-1.8	36	INF
22	Nov_3_2016	309.71	320	311.08	302.64	300.64	293.99	297(1.12%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-128	-170	-132	-115	0.24	71%	0.03	-57.2	3.43%	0	-1.7	35	INF
23	Nov_2_2016	309.63	322.11	314.6	306.64	305.98	299.34	293.7(-3.55%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-168	-160	-184	-121	0.44	71%	0.01	-47.1	3.5%	0	-2.2	29	INF
24	Nov_1_2016	309.6	324.36	318.64	311.92	313.04	307.29	304.5(0.07%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-96	-120	-103	-73	0.32	66%	0.04	-36.4	3.48%	0	-1.8	31	INF
25	Oct_31_2016	309.48	325.39	320.32	314.64	315.53	312.63	304.3(-3%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-107	-60	-117	-77	0.27	66%		-15.8	3.7%	0	-2.1	28	INF
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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