Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Jun. 23, 2016

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $322.0000 (5.06%) ($312.4000 - $322.0000) on Thu. Jun. 23, 2016.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   3.45% (three month average)
RSI   65
Latest Price   $322.0000(5.06%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX advances 2.5% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX declines -0.3% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based rally for large cap. Broad based rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
XLE(92%)    OIH(90%)    XOP(86%)    IWD(74%)    IVE(72%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -1.725% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-23%)    TLT(-23%)    UUP(-17%)    IGOV(-5%)    SHY(-3%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.725% (StdDev 3.45%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 2.2%

5 Day Moving Average   $306.88(4.93%)
10 Day Moving Average   $299.29(7.59%)
20 Day Moving Average   $299.91(7.37%)
To recent high   -0.7%
To recent low   49.4%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.01%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.01% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 4.25% (three month std-dev: 3.45%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 14 Average positive next day return: 3.24%(43%) Average negative next day return: -1.9%(57%) Sample size 14 Average positive next three day return: 3.28%(64%) Average negative next three day return: -6.4%(36%) Sample size 14 Average positive next weekly return: 2.76%(64%) Average negative next weekly return: -10.3%(36%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20160723

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jun_23_2016	251.04	299.91	299.29	306.88	309.51	314.41	322(5.06%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	136	140	161	59	0.25	74%	0.54	48	3.45%	0	1.7	65	0
2	Jun_22_2016	249.69	298.48	298.27	299.48	303.13	308.11	306.5(-1.67%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.6	101	150	123	35	0.43	72%	0.55	43	3.51%	0	0.7	59	0
3	Jun_21_2016	248.32	297.32	299.52	295.98	295.31	304.61	311.7(3.55%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	111	210	133	43	0.29	72%	0.5	33.4	3.51%	0	1.2	60	0
4	Jun_20_2016	247.08	295.66	300.38	291.82	291.45	298.14	301(2.66%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	177	160	210	79	0.28	70%	0.42	23.1	3.49%	0	0.4	58	0
5	Jun_17_2016	246.05	294.68	300.66	290.08	287.65	286.01	293.2(2.88%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	11	-70	14	1	0.37	70%	0.45	23.9	3.48%	0	-0.1	52	0

6	Jun_16_2016	244.95	293.92	300.15	290.64	288	284.75	285(-1.38%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-107	-110	-124	-56	0.55	70%	0.49	23.9	3.5%	0	-0.7	49	0
7	Jun_15_2016	243.76	293.56	300.84	296.92	293.43	289.3	289(-0.65%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-76	-130	-92	-26	0.3	70%	0.49	36.5	3.55%	0	-0.3	48	0
8	Jun_14_2016	242.56	293.35	301.24	303.58	299.62	291.25	290.9(-0.48%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-145	-230	-181	-36	0.33	70%	0.58	54.6	3.55%	0	-0.2	57	0
9	Jun_13_2016	241.17	292.87	301.28	310.24	309.1	297.55	292.3(-1.25%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.3	-152	-270	-198	-14	0.23	70%	0.48	74.9	3.56%	0	-0	60	0
10	Jun_10_2016	240.01	291.7	301.52	312.6	314.74	307.99	296(-6.45%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-1.1	-119	-130	-163	13	0.29	73%	0.59	73.5	3.67%	0	0.3	61	0

11	Jun_9_2016	238.61	290.8	301.25	310.52	314.01	320.65	316.4(-1.83%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	70	180	57	107	0.2	80%	0.74	70.6	3.56%	0	1.7	74	0
12	Jun_8_2016	236.86	288.64	299.02	305	307.01	321.5	322.3(-0.59%)	UD	OpenLong	75	1.2	271	350	296	197	0.32	68%	0.72	67.4	3.59%	0	2.3	79	0
13	Jun_7_2016	235.17	286.02	294.92	298.64	296.54	307.36	324.2(6.61%)	UT	OpenLong	75	2	234	230	259	158	0.3	68%	0.39	62	3.94%	0	3	71	0
14	Jun_6_2016	234.26	282.67	290.12	291.58	288.85	292.51	304.1(6.48%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	94	60	101	74	0.32	65%	0.6	38.1	3.95%	0	2.1	66	0
15	Jun_3_2016	232.86	280.93	287.68	289.34	287.41	285.73	285.6(-1.11%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.4	7	-60	-2	35	0.27	62%	0.45	21.5	3.89%	0	0.5	67	0

16	Jun_2_2016	231.81	280.31	286.85	290.56	288.24	285.19	288.8(-0.59%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.2	-52	-100	-73	10	0.29	66%	0.56	11.1	3.91%	0	0.9	58	0
17	Jun_1_2016	230.52	279.17	285.53	291.92	290.98	289.09	290.5(0.55%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.1	-22	-60	-38	28	0.41	66%	0.51	-8.5	4.01%	0	1.2	61	0
18	May_31_2016	229.34	278.45	284.78	290.34	292.73	291.29	288.9(-1.37%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	13	-10	2	47	0.35	66%	0.71	-23.9	3.97%	0	1.1	62	0
19	May_27_2016	227.73	278.79	283.84	288.2	290.26	292.88	292.9(0.41%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	23	80	12	54	0.29	66%	0.44	-20.4	4.1%	0	1.3	71	0
20	May_26_2016	226.73	278.94	281.24	285.7	287.06	294.18	291.7(-1.32%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.5	109	190	116	87	0.25	66%	0.37	-23.5	4.13%	0	1.1	61	0

21	May_25_2016	225.89	279.28	279.69	282.56	282.71	287.65	295.6(4.6%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	129	120	141	91	0.32	66%	0.26	-20.6	4.12%	0	1.2	61	0
22	May_24_2016	225.3	279.97	277.43	278.38	277.18	279.94	282.6(1.58%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	36	60	34	41	0.31	64%	0.22	-20.2	4.09%	0	0.2	60	0
23	May_23_2016	224.81	280.67	276.38	278.54	276.14	277.77	278.2(-0.78%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	32	20	30	38	0.3	56%	0.25	-14.1	4.1%	0	-0.2	51	0
24	May_20_2016	224.26	281.02	274.61	278.82	277.56	274.42	280.4(1.59%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	5	-90	4	9	0.25	60%	0.21	-6.8	4.37%	0	-0	41	0
25	May_19_2016	223.79	281.68	273.6	276	277.55	274.51	276(0.47%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0	-65	-60	-72	-43	0.43	60%		1.2	4.4%	0	-0.4	39	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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