Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Wed. Apr. 27, 2016

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $315.1000 (5.46%) ($303.0000 - $317.8000) on Wed. Apr. 27, 2016.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   5.15% (three month average)
RSI   82
Latest Price   $315.1000(5.46%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX advances 1.9% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX advances 10% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Value stock rally for large cap. Value stock rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
XLE(92%)    OIH(90%)    XOP(86%)    IWD(74%)    IVE(72%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -2.575% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-23%)    TLT(-23%)    UUP(-17%)    IBUY(-9%)    IGOV(-4%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -2.575% (StdDev 5.15%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 3.8%

5 Day Moving Average   $295.54(6.62%)
10 Day Moving Average   $283.53(11.13%)
20 Day Moving Average   $260.23(21.09%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   101%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.03%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.03% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 11.02% (three month std-dev: 5.15%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 14 Average positive next day return: 2.76%(43%) Average negative next day return: -4.96%(57%) Sample size 14 Average positive next three day return: 5.44%(50%) Average negative next three day return: -6.29%(50%) Sample size 14 Average positive next weekly return: 7.59%(57%) Average negative next weekly return: -9.33%(43%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20160527

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Apr_27_2016	217.36	260.23	283.53	295.54	295.43	301.98	315.1(5.46%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.7	158	150	152	177	0.56	63%	0.32	61.3	5.15%	0	1.9	82	INF
2	Apr_26_2016	216.66	256	277.92	290.08	289.59	290.6	298.8(4.73%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	64	20	39	137	0.36	64%	0.2	59.4	5.13%	0	1.6	77	INF
3	Apr_25_2016	216.22	252.59	273.75	286.38	286.71	288.89	285.3(-3.26%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	57	60	28	143	0.57	59%	-0.02	55.9	5.26%	0	1.3	79	INF
4	Apr_22_2016	216.27	249.77	269.07	282.12	283.4	288.58	294.9(3.98%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.5	118	140	102	167	0.46	62%	0	48	5.56%	0	1.9	79	INF
5	Apr_21_2016	216.27	246.52	263.48	273.58	273.26	284.53	283.6(-1.46%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.5	114	290	101	151	0.5	64%	-0.15	37.6	5.75%	0	1.7	74	INF

6	Apr_20_2016	216.59	243.75	257.78	269.46	265.35	278.23	287.8(2.68%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	172	290	173	168	0.5	61%	-0.28	32.3	5.83%	0	2.3	69	INF
7	Apr_19_2016	217.2	241.45	251.79	264.04	260.24	262	280.3(6.17%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	112	0	106	128	0.42	59%	-0.28	33.8	5.95%	0	2.3	67	INF
8	Apr_18_2016	217.82	239.67	245.32	259.56	256.3	252.48	264(4.68%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.3	-18	-140	-42	53	0.5	58%	-0.34	37.2	5.98%	0	1.7	64	INF
9	Apr_15_2016	218.56	238.93	240.92	254.02	256.01	258.49	252.2(-4.11%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	19	90	7	56	0.33	55%	0.16	33.6	6.01%	0	1	61	INF
10	Apr_14_2016	218.2	238.78	238.18	251.46	252.56	260.13	263(0.88%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	89	220	92	80	0.31	58%	-0.38	39.8	6.11%	0	1.8	65	INF

11	Apr_13_2016	219.04	237.58	235.11	243.96	246.83	253.53	260.7(1.09%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	105	230	115	73	0.43	56%	-0.43	35	6.3%	0	1.9	65	INF
12	Apr_12_2016	219.99	235.95	232.18	237.62	238.63	244.99	257.9(9.14%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.8	69	200	79	39	0.6	56%	-0.35	31.4	6.38%	0	2	53	INF
13	Apr_11_2016	220.76	234.52	229.41	229.16	232.41	240.13	236.3(-1.29%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.7	78	280	97	21	0.45	53%	-0.41	8.4	6.29%	0	0.2	41	INF
14	Apr_8_2016	221.67	234.5	228.77	225.9	226.19	232.26	239.4(6.16%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.3	62	190	83	0	0.51	53%	-0.44	5.1	6.34%	0	0.5	40	INF
15	Apr_7_2016	222.66	233.55	228.03	222.98	222.22	224.69	225.5(-1.53%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.2	18	70	35	-33	0.44	51%	-0.58	-1.8	6.33%	0	-0.8	31	INF

16	Apr_6_2016	223.95	233.35	228.58	224.92	221.83	220.11	229(6.22%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.4	-21	-100	-11	-51	0.54	49%	-0.48	7.9	6.4%	0	-0.4	42	INF
17	Apr_5_2016	225.02	232.48	230.25	226.04	224.5	219.75	215.6(-2%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-59	-170	-58	-61	0.38	49%	-0.59	15.9	6.53%	0	-1.4	44	INF
18	Apr_4_2016	226.36	233.69	233.71	229.62	229.71	223.54	220(-2.14%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-50	-190	-51	-45	0.41	49%	-0.42	48.9	6.53%	0	-1.2	46	INF
19	Apr_1_2016	227.32	233.98	237.05	231.8	230.68	229.25	224.8(-4.42%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-57	-60	-63	-40	0.4	49%	-0.42	71.7	6.52%	0	-0.8	45	INF
20	Mar_31_2016	228.28	233.74	239.8	233.58	232.73	235.89	235.2(0.26%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	33	80	39	16	0.41	49%	-0.47	88.9	6.55%	0	0.1	63	INF

21	Mar_30_2016	229.36	232.48	240.54	232.74	230.74	232.1	234.6(0.47%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	15	20	16	13	0.51	49%	-0.59	89.1	6.55%	0	0.2	63	INF
22	Mar_29_2016	230.71	230.58	240.25	235.32	230.69	229.58	233.5(1.13%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.1	-16	-90	-25	10	0.51	49%	-0.57	85.9	6.57%	0	0.2	68	INF
23	Mar_28_2016	232.03	228.16	240.21	238.7	235.5	229.38	230.9(-1.2%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.4	-32	-220	-45	7	0.31	47%	-1.26	72.9	6.57%	0	0.1	49	INF
24	Mar_24_2016	234.98	226.08	240.9	243.24	240.14	231.81	233.7(1.17%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-83	-280	-110	-3	0.53	47%	-0.67	69.5	6.61%	0	0.3	57	INF
25	Mar_23_2016	236.57	223.69	239.77	246.94	246.94	241.63	231(-6.67%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.7	-46	-150	-69	24	0.48	50%		70.6	6.62%	0	0.3	58	INF
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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