Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

^ ERX: Intraday Hourly Forecast Similar Waves GapOpen Research Timing Gains Losses Strategies Practice

Mon. Oct. 20, 2014

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $737.6000 (2.59%) ($706.8000 - $744.4000) on Mon. Oct. 20, 2014.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   3.27% (three month average)
RSI   26
Latest Price   $737.6000(2.59%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX advances 1.8% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX declines -12.2% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
XLE(93%)    OIH(89%)    XOP(87%)    XLB(67%)    IWM(66%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -1.635% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-29%)    TLT(-26%)    UUP(-13%)    IGOV(-6%)    SHY(-5%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.635% (StdDev 3.27%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 3%

Resistance Level   $837.82
5 Day Moving Average   $694.56(6.2%)
10 Day Moving Average   $736.6(0.14%)
20 Day Moving Average   $837.82(-11.96%)
To recent high   -43.9%
To recent low   13.3%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.01%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.01% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 15.01% (three month std-dev: 3.27%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 2 Average positive next day return: 1.95%(50%) Average negative next day return: -6.73%(50%) Sample size 2 Average positive next three day return: 11.57%(50%) Average negative next three day return: -1.65%(50%) Sample size 2 Average positive next weekly return: 12.39%(50%) Average negative next weekly return: -1.02%(50%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

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i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Oct_20_2014	1128.23	837.82	736.6	694.56	689.98	728.19	737.6(2.59%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	454	370	600	16	0.17	26%	-0.33	-67.4	3.27%	0	-0.8	26	0
2	Oct_17_2014	1132.01	851.64	749.95	682.04	676.77	697.63	719(2.66%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	564	190	740	37	0.27	25%	-0.35	-68.9	3.24%	0	-1	21	0
3	Oct_16_2014	1136	868.79	765.63	687.26	672.81	651.78	700.4(5.39%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-316	-280	-292	-389	0.41	28%	-0.34	-67	3.25%	0	-1.3	17	0
4	Oct_15_2014	1139.9	887.31	784.03	702.54	696.14	655.91	664.6(2.06%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-950	-430	-1038	-687	0.49	25%	-0.37	-66	3.22%	0	-1.7	17	0
5	Oct_14_2014	1144.11	908.75	807.95	744.82	740.5	693.85	651.2(-3.53%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.7	-1006	-460	-1110	-692	0.39	26%	-0.44	-61.8	3.2%	0	-2	13	0

6	Oct_13_2014	1149.14	932	839.27	784.72	784.63	736.37	675(-9.41%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-1	-1058	-430	-1182	-686	0.25	27%	-0.35	-61	3.22%	0	-2.2	14	0
7	Oct_10_2014	1153.2	952.42	872	826.76	823.41	787.16	745.1(-4.08%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.8	-978	-320	-1097	-622	0.17	28%	-0.29	-63	3.04%	0	-2.1	17	0
8	Oct_9_2014	1156.59	968.11	898.12	854.62	856.22	832.89	776.8(-11.32%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.9	-581	-190	-635	-419	0.15	30%	-0.27	-67.9	3.02%	0	-2.1	16	0
9	Oct_8_2014	1159.67	984.46	918	876.74	873.81	859.66	876(2.97%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0	-426	-120	-449	-355	0.12	34%	-0.15	-72.1	2.74%	0	-1.3	20	0
10	Oct_7_2014	1161.42	995.34	931.36	881.44	881.31	879.55	850.7(-3.9%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.4	-340	-10	-345	-326	0.06	31%	-0.18	-77.9	2.7%	0	-1.8	13	0

11	Oct_6_2014	1163.52	1008.17	947.66	903.16	896.77	887.95	885.2(0.09%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-183	-90	-161	-247	0.07	32%	-0.14	-80.9	2.68%	0	-1.6	13	0
12	Oct_3_2014	1165.17	1019.89	961.25	925.54	917.66	883.07	884.4(-0.34%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.5	-639	-290	-703	-447	0.08	32%	-0.15	-80.1	2.7%	0	-1.8	24	0
13	Oct_2_2014	1166.92	1034.17	979.51	949.24	941.7	905.6	887.4(-1.35%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-1030	-290	-1172	-604	0.13	32%	-0.18	-79.3	2.7%	0	-2	30	0
14	Oct_1_2014	1169.02	1047.38	998.12	965.14	968.33	952.25	899.5(-6.23%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-586	-110	-653	-384	0.09	32%	-0.17	-80.6	2.7%	0	-2.1	27	0
15	Sep_30_2014	1170.98	1062.29	1017.22	987.92	982.96	977.8	959.3(-3.79%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-218	-50	-226	-192	0.07	34%	-0.1	-79.7	2.61%	0	-1.5	32	0

16	Sep_29_2014	1172.21	1073.63	1031.69	998.28	990.92	984.41	997.1(-0.58%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0	-181	-70	-186	-165	0.05	36%	-0.05	-81.8	2.57%	0	-1.2	34	0
17	Sep_26_2014	1172.84	1085.06	1038.72	1002.86	1000.33	988.13	1002.9(3.72%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0	-311	-90	-338	-231	0.06	36%	-0.05	-70.5	2.57%	0	-1.2	33	0
18	Sep_25_2014	1173.43	1095.34	1043.18	1015.8	1012.96	997.43	966.9(-4.59%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.7	-512	-120	-570	-336	0.05	35%	-0.12	-63.6	2.52%	0	-1.8	21	0
19	Sep_24_2014	1174.87	1107.76	1056.3	1036.56	1034.33	1012.54	1013.4(0.23%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-499	-150	-559	-320	0.05	34%	-0.06	-57.8	2.49%	0	-1.4	30	0
20	Sep_23_2014	1175.55	1118.09	1064.29	1051.22	1053.23	1028.49	1011.1(-0.87%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-681	-160	-773	-405	0.05	34%	-0.06	-50.6	2.59%	0	-1.6	25	0

21	Sep_22_2014	1176.21	1127.82	1073.53	1070.04	1072.76	1056.11	1020(-4.46%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-513	-100	-577	-322	0.04	34%	-0.04	-42.9	2.59%	0	-1.7	28	0
22	Sep_19_2014	1176.63	1135.71	1083.35	1079.26	1085.55	1077.96	1067.6(-0.29%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-154	-30	-150	-164	0.03	40%	0.01	-41.1	2.58%	0	-1.1	27	0
23	Sep_18_2014	1176.5	1142.12	1092.85	1074.36	1079.68	1089.41	1070.7(-1.47%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-52	80	-26	-128	0.03	41%	0.01	-39.5	2.59%	0	-1.2	32	0
24	Sep_17_2014	1176.41	1148.34	1100.09	1078.9	1075.41	1093.14	1086.7(-1.67%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	393	110	499	75	0.04	41%	0.02	-35.2	2.61%	0	-1.1	33	0
25	Sep_16_2014	1176.18	1153.37	1110.19	1079.82	1070.6	1069.95	1105.2(3.67%)	RB	SmallLong	20	0.5	179	-30	249	-30	0.05	41%		-32.1	2.6%	0	-0.9	33	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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