Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Aug. 14, 2014

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $1122.0000 (-1.75%) ($1117.7000 - $1151.5000) on Thu. Aug. 14, 2014.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   2.38% (three month average)
RSI   31
Latest Price   $1122.0000(-1.75%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX advances 0.4% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX declines -4.1% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
XLE(93%)    OIH(89%)    XOP(87%)    XLB(67%)    IWM(66%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -1.19% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-30%)    TLT(-25%)    UUP(-13%)    SHY(-5%)    IGOV(-5%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.19% (StdDev 2.38%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -2%

Resistance Level   $1197.37
5 Day Moving Average   $1141.62(-1.72%)
10 Day Moving Average   $1136.84(-1.31%)
20 Day Moving Average   $1197.37(-6.29%)
To recent high   -16.9%
To recent low   7.1%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.01%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.01% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 5.95% (three month std-dev: 2.38%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 2 Average positive next day return: 0.23%(50%) Average negative next day return: -0.45%(50%) Sample size 2 Average positive next three day return: 0.75%(50%) Average negative next three day return: -0.92%(50%) Sample size 2 Average positive next weekly return: 2.02%(100%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20140914

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Aug_14_2014	1134.16	1197.37	1136.84	1141.62	1145.54	1139.36	1122(-1.75%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-47	-30	-25	-113	0.03	52%	0.24	-41.7	2.38%	0	-1.1	31	0
2	Aug_13_2014	1131.5	1203.7	1140.88	1137.4	1145.19	1140.93	1142(0.87%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-150	-10	-135	-193	0.02	52%	0.24	-44.3	2.36%	0	-0.9	30	0
3	Aug_12_2014	1128.74	1211.7	1150.02	1133.52	1138.04	1151.71	1132.1(-2.07%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0	45	100	99	-116	0.02	52%	0.25	-46.8	2.37%	0	-1.1	30	0
4	Aug_11_2014	1125.87	1217.86	1162.42	1129.78	1134.21	1149.46	1156(0%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.4	469	110	601	74	0.03	52%	0.27	-51.6	2.36%	0	-0.9	35	0
5	Aug_8_2014	1122.81	1223.49	1173.32	1136.72	1128.31	1124.38	1156(5%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-19	-50	24	-148	0.04	49%	0.28	-51.7	2.36%	0	-1	40	0

6	Aug_7_2014	1119.67	1227.77	1185.47	1132.52	1135.75	1118.95	1100.9(-1.93%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-349	-90	-363	-305	0.04	48%	0.24	-60	2.34%	0	-1.9	33	0
7	Aug_6_2014	1116.99	1236.46	1206.69	1144.98	1141.21	1132.24	1122.6(0.83%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-629	-60	-700	-415	0.04	48%	0.24	-63.4	2.35%	0	-1.9	37	0
8	Aug_5_2014	1114.3	1245.68	1225.53	1169.18	1160.83	1152.55	1113.4(-6.49%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-332	-70	-358	-252	0.05	48%	0.25	-59.6	2.35%	0	-2.5	30	0
9	Aug_4_2014	1111.49	1254.38	1243.62	1199.5	1191.14	1150.19	1190.7(4.91%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-709	-260	-812	-400	0.05	52%	0.34	-56.7	2.2%	0	-1.4	45	0
10	Aug_1_2014	1107.76	1259.17	1250.99	1216.34	1218.26	1169.11	1135(-2.42%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.9	-1707	-280	-1991	-856	0.05	48%	0.29	-50.4	2.12%	0	-2.9	36	0

11	Jul_31_2014	1104.55	1268.42	1264.26	1246.5	1252.36	1232.09	1163.2(-6.47%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-2.5	-1022	-100	-1196	-498	0.05	50%	0.29	-39.6	2.11%	0	-3.1	44	0
12	Jul_30_2014	1101.34	1275.62	1273.76	1276.82	1276.02	1267.4	1243.6(-1.69%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.4	-288	-50	-343	-122	0.06	55%	0.37	-21.1	1.94%	0	-1.3	49	0
13	Jul_29_2014	1097.29	1278.63	1279.94	1290.12	1288.8	1272.63	1265(-0.78%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-355	-90	-428	-136	0.03	55%	0.36	0.5	1.93%	0	-0.6	45	0
14	Jul_28_2014	1093.34	1280.4	1278.82	1294.28	1296.08	1284.65	1274.9(-0.85%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-464	-60	-556	-187	0.02	55%	0.37	-3.7	1.93%	0	-0.2	51	0
15	Jul_25_2014	1089.26	1281.53	1278.06	1291.06	1298.16	1304.98	1285.8(-2.21%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	96	50	105	70	0.02	55%	0.39	-14.8	1.92%	0	0.2	51	0

16	Jul_24_2014	1085	1282.02	1273.21	1284.56	1287.58	1307.51	1314.8(0.36%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	587	120	690	279	0.02	57%	0.44	-22	1.91%	0	1.3	49	0
17	Jul_23_2014	1080.26	1280.73	1267.61	1270.34	1271.32	1291.35	1310.1(1.89%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.7	604	110	718	263	0.02	57%	0.41	-35.9	1.91%	0	1.2	51	0
18	Jul_22_2014	1075.8	1278.5	1265.75	1269.28	1265.18	1267.64	1285.8(2.14%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	355	0	426	143	0.02	57%	0.42	-33.1	1.91%	0	0.3	47	0
19	Jul_21_2014	1071.31	1281.31	1264.29	1261.92	1265.68	1251.29	1258.8(0.44%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-256	-70	-288	-159	0.02	56%	0.38	-18.6	1.9%	0	-0.8	44	0
20	Jul_18_2014	1067.27	1285.08	1266.49	1263.3	1264.77	1262.73	1253.3(0.77%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-424	-10	-485	-240	0.02	56%	0.39	1.3	1.91%	0	-1.1	44	0

21	Jul_17_2014	1063.16	1287.46	1271.96	1259.46	1266.9	1280.08	1243.7(-4.68%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.6	382	90	464	137	0.04	58%	0.38	14.9	1.93%	0	-1.5	42	0
22	Jul_16_2014	1059.13	1289.17	1277.48	1263.34	1258.95	1266.81	1304.8(4.47%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.5	364	30	442	131	0.03	65%	0.43	35.9	1.84%	0	0.6	52	0
23	Jul_15_2014	1054.64	1286.14	1276.73	1262.38	1253.72	1253.73	1249(-1.32%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-95	-20	-100	-81	0.03	64%	0.37	45.3	1.81%	0	-1.3	48	0
24	Jul_14_2014	1050.71	1286.42	1282.07	1267.48	1263.86	1251.09	1265.7(2.56%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-126	-80	-135	-98	0.02	67%	0.43	62.7	1.85%	0	-0.7	36	0
25	Jul_11_2014	1046.24	1284.75	1285.42	1270.68	1267.63	1253.71	1234.1(-2.3%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-707	-80	-817	-375	0.04	65%		69	1.89%	0	-1.6	33	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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