Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Fri. Apr. 25, 2014

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $1044.7000 (-1.69%) ($1035.0000 - $1063.1000) on Fri. Apr. 25, 2014.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   2.43% (three month average)
RSI   63
Latest Price   $1044.7000(-1.69%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX advances 0.3% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX advances 7% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
XLE(93%)    OIH(89%)    XOP(87%)    XLB(67%)    IWM(65%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -1.215% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-25%)    UUP(-13%)    SHY(-5%)    IGOV(-5%)    BNDX(-4%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.215% (StdDev 2.43%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -0.9%

5 Day Moving Average   $1053.32(-0.82%)
10 Day Moving Average   $1012.5(3.18%)
20 Day Moving Average   $971.82(7.5%)
To recent high   -1.7%
To recent low   47.4%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.01%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.01% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 6% (three month std-dev: 2.43%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 3 Average positive next day return: 0.52%(33%) Average negative next day return: -0.79%(67%) Sample size 3 Average positive next three day return: 0.51%(33%) Average negative next three day return: -2.71%(67%) Sample size 3 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: -5.43%(100%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20140525

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Apr_25_2014	857.66	971.82	1012.5	1053.32	1054.69	1059.18	1044.7(-1.69%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.1	-5	30	-57	149	0.02	62%	0.27	86.5	2.43%	0	1.2	63	0
2	Apr_24_2014	855.33	963.71	998.77	1050.58	1052.92	1063.1	1062.7(0.01%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	403	70	427	330	0.02	57%	0.28	88.6	2.43%	0	1.7	64	0
3	Apr_23_2014	852.92	953.58	986.31	1038.6	1040.55	1050.21	1062.6(1.67%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	330	70	347	277	0.02	55%	0.27	87	2.57%	0	1.9	66	0
4	Apr_22_2014	850.6	943.79	972.44	1019.62	1024.49	1042.73	1045.1(-0.61%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.5	466	140	515	318	0.02	55%	0.26	84.4	2.61%	0	1.9	66	0
5	Apr_21_2014	848.39	933.92	957.92	996.72	1000.91	1030.9	1051.5(1.99%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	737	220	844	417	0.03	55%	0.27	76.5	2.62%	0	2.3	69	0

6	Apr_17_2014	846.09	923.84	946.58	965.3	970.46	1006.24	1031(2.81%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	907	270	1054	467	0.03	55%	0.24	67.2	2.62%	0	2.3	67	0
7	Apr_16_2014	844.06	914.48	938.26	939.3	939.17	970.91	1002.8(3.63%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.5	792	240	923	397	0.04	54%	0.19	59.9	2.6%	0	2	69	0
8	Apr_15_2014	842.49	906.11	931.31	926.94	920.47	934.68	967.7(3.99%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	503	90	583	263	0.04	52%	0.13	56.5	2.57%	0	1.6	69	0
9	Apr_14_2014	841.37	900.53	927.2	919.02	916.52	907.44	930.6(4.05%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	38	-80	35	47	0.03	52%	0.06	53.5	2.53%	0	0.8	62	0
10	Apr_11_2014	840.88	896.03	925.67	913.4	915.96	906.27	894.4(-0.73%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-380	-70	-459	-144	0.02	46%	0.03	42.9	2.62%	0	-0	62	0

11	Apr_10_2014	840.63	892.93	928.2	924.34	923	925.61	901(-4.25%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.5	-103	20	-142	13	0.03	46%	0.07	42.9	2.64%	0	0.2	62	0
12	Apr_9_2014	840.05	889.24	927.11	936.08	934.62	925.65	941(1.39%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	58	-70	39	115	0.02	48%	0.11	45.5	2.57%	0	1.2	71	0
13	Apr_8_2014	839.11	884.49	919.63	936.2	940	920.4	928.1(2.84%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-397	-130	-499	-91	0.02	48%	0.1	46.9	2.57%	0	1	72	0
14	Apr_7_2014	838.27	880.34	914.32	936.76	944.09	943.58	902.5(-4.91%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-239	20	-315	-10	0.03	48%	0.04	46.5	2.57%	0	0.5	61	0
15	Apr_4_2014	837.92	878.98	909.85	939.12	944.24	959.6	949.1(-1.1%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	410	130	444	308	0.03	51%	0.12	52.7	2.48%	0	1.7	76	0

16	Apr_3_2014	836.93	874.86	900.53	932.24	933.01	944.59	959.7(1.92%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.7	442	90	481	324	0.03	51%	0.15	54.1	2.49%	0	2.3	81	0
17	Apr_2_2014	835.67	869.8	889.19	916.74	920.39	928.89	941.6(1.15%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.8	329	80	352	259	0.02	48%	0.15	52.2	2.49%	0	2.2	80	0
18	Apr_1_2014	834.38	864.9	878.67	900.72	904.79	921.44	930.9(1.82%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	317	140	346	229	0.02	48%	0.11	45	2.54%	0	2.4	67	0
19	Mar_31_2014	833.45	861.56	870.98	888.86	892.29	911.9	914.3(-0.04%)	UD	OpenLong	75	1.1	557	170	633	330	0.02	50%	0.1	40.2	2.55%	0	2.2	65	0
20	Mar_28_2014	832.65	857.94	863.12	876.06	879.05	888.14	914.7(3.68%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.9	388	80	442	225	0.03	50%	0.14	25.5	2.57%	0	2.8	55	0

21	Mar_27_2014	831.47	854.98	853.88	864.3	867.8	872.69	882.2(2.4%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	82	50	91	55	0.04	48%	0.05	22.2	2.55%	0	1.7	50	0
22	Mar_26_2014	831.02	853.24	847.74	857.62	865.16	869.96	861.5(-1.16%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	212	70	250	97	0.03	48%	0.04	12	2.54%	0	0.6	48	0
23	Mar_25_2014	830.71	852.58	846.22	852.94	856.08	862.91	871.6(2.5%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	95	70	115	35	0.03	48%	0.02	8.5	2.55%	0	1.3	55	0
24	Mar_24_2014	830.54	852.07	843.42	850.38	850.7	860.37	850.3(-0.65%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	198	80	239	73	0.02	48%	0.03	15.1	2.55%	0	-0.1	44	0
25	Mar_21_2014	830.27	852.72	845.76	847.9	849.12	849.25	855.9(0.84%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	201	10	242	78	0.03	48%		23.5	2.54%	0	0.2	53	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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