Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Wed. Apr. 2, 2014

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $941.6000 (1.15%) ($923.9000 - $945.8000) on Wed. Apr. 2, 2014.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   2.49% (three month average)
RSI   80
Latest Price   $941.6000(1.15%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX advances 1.8% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX advances 4.9% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
XLE(93%)    OIH(89%)    XOP(87%)    XLB(67%)    IWM(65%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -1.245% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-25%)    UUP(-13%)    SHY(-5%)    IGOV(-5%)    BNDX(-4%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.245% (StdDev 2.49%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 1.6%

5 Day Moving Average   $916.74(2.71%)
10 Day Moving Average   $889.19(5.89%)
20 Day Moving Average   $869.8(8.25%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   32.8%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.01%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.01% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 3.72% (three month std-dev: 2.49%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 9 Average positive next day return: 2.18%(56%) Average negative next day return: -1.89%(44%) Sample size 9 Average positive next three day return: 2.11%(56%) Average negative next three day return: -4.67%(44%) Sample size 9 Average positive next weekly return: 3.96%(44%) Average negative next weekly return: -3.42%(56%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20140502

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Apr_2_2014	835.67	869.8	889.19	916.74	920.39	928.89	941.6(1.15%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.8	329	80	352	259	0.02	48%	0.15	52.2	2.49%	0	2.2	80	NAN
2	Apr_1_2014	834.38	864.9	878.67	900.72	904.79	921.44	930.9(1.82%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	317	140	346	229	0.02	48%	0.11	45	2.54%	0	2.4	67	NAN
3	Mar_31_2014	833.45	861.56	870.98	888.86	892.29	911.9	914.3(-0.04%)	UD	OpenLong	75	1.1	557	170	633	330	0.02	50%	0.1	40.2	2.55%	0	2.2	65	NAN
4	Mar_28_2014	832.65	857.94	863.12	876.06	879.05	888.14	914.7(3.68%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.9	388	80	442	225	0.03	50%	0.14	25.5	2.57%	0	2.8	55	NAN
5	Mar_27_2014	831.47	854.98	853.88	864.3	867.8	872.69	882.2(2.4%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	82	50	91	55	0.04	48%	0.05	22.2	2.55%	0	1.7	50	NAN

6	Mar_26_2014	831.02	853.24	847.74	857.62	865.16	869.96	861.5(-1.16%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	212	70	250	97	0.03	48%	0.04	12	2.54%	0	0.6	48	NAN
7	Mar_25_2014	830.71	852.58	846.22	852.94	856.08	862.91	871.6(2.5%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	95	70	115	35	0.03	48%	0.02	8.5	2.55%	0	1.3	55	NAN
8	Mar_24_2014	830.54	852.07	843.42	850.38	850.7	860.37	850.3(-0.65%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	198	80	239	73	0.02	48%	0.03	15.1	2.55%	0	-0.1	44	NAN
9	Mar_21_2014	830.27	852.72	845.76	847.9	849.12	849.25	855.9(0.84%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	201	10	242	78	0.03	48%	0.03	23.5	2.54%	0	0.2	53	NAN
10	Mar_20_2014	830.05	851.43	847.25	841.72	842.84	841.03	848.8(1.28%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.5	-102	-10	-112	-70	0.03	48%	0.01	25	2.56%	0	-0.2	47	NAN

11	Mar_19_2014	829.97	851.44	848.97	836.2	839.54	848.99	838.1(-2.41%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	87	90	111	15	0.04	48%	-0.03	35.3	2.56%	0	-0.8	49	NAN
12	Mar_18_2014	830.2	851.32	850.31	838.22	837.1	844.66	858.8(2.49%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	270	60	326	103	0.03	50%	0.02	51.8	2.54%	0	0.4	53	NAN
13	Mar_17_2014	830.03	849.89	851.4	835.84	833.94	830.09	837.9(1.56%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-70	-40	-74	-58	0.02	50%	-0	67.8	2.58%	0	-0.7	44	NAN
14	Mar_14_2014	830.05	849.08	852.5	843.86	840.57	829.54	825(0.46%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-1	-266	-100	-307	-144	0.03	52%	-0	90.2	2.58%	0	-1.3	41	NAN
15	Mar_13_2014	830.07	847.55	856.51	853.84	852.44	837.79	821.2(-3.18%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.5	-328	-130	-386	-153	0.04	52%	0.01	96.2	2.6%	0	-1.2	52	NAN

16	Mar_12_2014	830.01	845.8	859.89	863.22	862.11	851.6	848.2(0.15%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-303	-90	-361	-128	0.03	54%	-0.01	103.8	2.57%	0	0.1	51	NAN
17	Mar_11_2014	830.08	842.8	860.2	863.62	867.22	867.09	846.9(-3.54%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-75	10	-94	-16	0.04	51%	0.01	102.5	2.58%	0	0.1	55	NAN
18	Mar_10_2014	830.01	838.53	862.12	868.8	865.69	872.62	878(0.35%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	105	50	112	84	0.02	54%	0.03	97.9	2.59%	0	1.1	63	NAN
19	Mar_7_2014	829.73	832.95	860.51	862.52	865.29	867.36	874.9(0.78%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	210	30	234	136	0.03	54%	0.07	90.7	2.58%	0	1.1	65	NAN
20	Mar_6_2014	829.19	826.48	855.94	860.06	859.74	858.75	868.1(2.11%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.2	-52	-10	-76	19	0.04	54%	0.06	78.2	2.6%	0	1	70	NAN

21	Mar_5_2014	828.69	818.87	853.89	856.44	859.21	863.21	850.2(-2.59%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	83	40	79	96	0.04	54%	0.08	60.7	2.59%	0	0.7	70	NAN
22	Mar_4_2014	827.99	813.07	852.34	856.16	856.52	860.74	872.8(3.09%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	147	40	150	139	0.04	55%	0.1	52.4	2.57%	0	1.2	73	NAN
23	Mar_3_2014	827.16	805.06	847.89	854.6	852.99	855.21	846.6(-1.85%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	52	10	31	113	0.05	53%	0.09	44.6	2.54%	0	0.8	75	NAN
24	Feb_28_2014	826.43	800.17	845.23	858.1	854.95	852.3	862.6(1.48%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	72	-30	47	145	0.03	53%	0.14	44.3	2.49%	0	1.2	75	NAN
25	Feb_27_2014	825.29	795.67	837.84	851.14	854.17	850.76	850(0.14%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0	-70	-20	-120	82	0.03	53%		38.1	2.51%	0	1.1	77	NAN
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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