Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Mar. 6, 2014

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $868.1000 (2.11%) ($851.3000 - $870.9000) on Thu. Mar. 6, 2014.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   2.6% (three month average)
RSI   70
Latest Price   $868.1000(2.11%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX advances 0.4% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX advances 2.2% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
XLE(93%)    OIH(89%)    XOP(87%)    IWM(65%)    XLF(65%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -1.3% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-25%)    UUP(-13%)    SHY(-5%)    IGOV(-5%)    BNDX(-4%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.3% (StdDev 2.6%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 1.9%

5 Day Moving Average   $860.06(0.93%)
10 Day Moving Average   $855.94(1.42%)
20 Day Moving Average   $826.48(5.04%)
To recent high   -3.4%
To recent low   22.5%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.01%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.01% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 4.95% (three month std-dev: 2.6%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 5 Average positive next day return: 2.16%(40%) Average negative next day return: -0.58%(60%) Sample size 5 Average positive next three day return: 2.28%(80%) Average negative next three day return: -0.46%(20%) Sample size 5 Average positive next weekly return: 2.06%(80%) Average negative next weekly return: -2.73%(20%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

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i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Mar_6_2014	829.19	826.48	855.94	860.06	859.74	858.75	868.1(2.11%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.2	-52	-10	-76	19	0.04	54%	0.06	78.2	2.6%	0	1	70	0
2	Mar_5_2014	828.69	818.87	853.89	856.44	859.21	863.21	850.2(-2.59%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	83	40	79	96	0.04	54%	0.08	60.7	2.59%	0	0.7	70	0
3	Mar_4_2014	827.99	813.07	852.34	856.16	856.52	860.74	872.8(3.09%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	147	40	150	139	0.04	55%	0.1	52.4	2.57%	0	1.2	73	0
4	Mar_3_2014	827.16	805.06	847.89	854.6	852.99	855.21	846.6(-1.85%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	52	10	31	113	0.05	53%	0.09	44.6	2.54%	0	0.8	75	0
5	Feb_28_2014	826.43	800.17	845.23	858.1	854.95	852.3	862.6(1.48%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	72	-30	47	145	0.03	53%	0.14	44.3	2.49%	0	1.2	75	0

6	Feb_27_2014	825.29	795.67	837.84	851.14	854.17	850.76	850(0.14%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0	-70	-20	-120	82	0.03	53%	0.17	38.1	2.51%	0	1.1	77	0
7	Feb_26_2014	823.86	791.48	830.85	850.82	852.84	857.6	848.8(-1.87%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	81	50	50	172	0.03	53%	0.16	31.3	2.52%	0	1.2	81	0
8	Feb_25_2014	822.53	787.89	824.4	847.48	848.91	857.57	865(0.1%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	274	80	273	277	0.03	52%	0.15	25	2.51%	0	1.7	77	0
9	Feb_24_2014	821.26	782.55	813.38	840.2	842.49	848.07	864.1(4.39%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	259	50	254	273	0.07	52%	0.13	16.2	2.53%	0	1.9	79	0
10	Feb_21_2014	820.21	777.66	803.15	830.76	834.84	840.25	827.8(-2.43%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	200	60	186	243	0.04	51%	0.11	5.1	2.48%	0	1.3	64	0

11	Feb_20_2014	819.33	777.04	794.76	822.2	825.69	836.91	848.4(1.96%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	343	110	361	290	0.03	51%	0.11	-1	2.49%	0	1.9	60	0
12	Feb_19_2014	818.43	776.56	780.96	807.66	809.38	829.44	832.1(0.42%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	424	180	468	293	0.04	51%	0.1	-8.7	2.47%	0	1.4	59	0
13	Feb_18_2014	817.64	776.41	770.5	797.64	796.64	814.46	828.6(1.43%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	607	150	692	350	0.03	49%	0.19	-10.9	2.47%	0	1.3	56	0
14	Feb_14_2014	816.13	775.65	758.44	782.52	782.85	789.33	816.9(4.06%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	322	60	370	179	0.05	49%	0.06	-24.7	2.48%	0	1	57	0
15	Feb_13_2014	815.63	775.73	750.92	771.82	770.69	778.83	785(1.2%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	103	70	120	52	0.03	48%	0.03	-34	2.43%	0	0.2	51	0

16	Feb_12_2014	815.42	777.42	749.54	763.06	765.85	776.38	775.7(-0.81%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	389	110	465	160	0.03	47%	0.01	-42.4	2.45%	0	-0	41	0
17	Feb_11_2014	815.31	779.95	748.48	749.7	752.12	762.55	782(3.85%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	246	110	311	51	0.03	47%	0.02	-53.9	2.48%	0	0	38	0
18	Feb_10_2014	815.12	780.81	747.87	739.1	739.39	755.33	753(-1.36%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	303	150	389	44	0.03	44%	-0.03	-65.8	2.43%	0	-0.6	36	0
19	Feb_7_2014	815.33	785.58	748.88	730.4	731.44	741.69	763.4(3%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	345	100	447	39	0.03	44%	-0.04	-68.9	2.49%	0	-0.5	41	0
20	Feb_6_2014	815.64	789.71	749.67	727.36	725.04	723.46	741.2(4.56%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.3	-67	-20	-32	-172	0.03	42%	-0.07	-69.9	2.52%	0	-1	36	0

21	Feb_5_2014	816.23	795.47	757.59	734.78	730.85	721.19	708.9(-2.76%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-300	-110	-308	-277	0.03	38%	-0.08	-69.5	2.45%	0	-1.8	30	0
22	Feb_4_2014	816.87	803.88	771.91	747.08	745.9	726.61	729(2.75%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-399	-190	-431	-301	0.04	42%	-0.04	-66.3	2.45%	0	-1.7	31	0
23	Feb_3_2014	817.19	810.37	783.13	757.98	756.96	740.51	709.5(-5.17%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-580	-160	-653	-361	0.05	40%	-0.06	-68.1	2.48%	0	-2.4	36	0
24	Jan_31_2014	817.72	817.96	795.15	769.14	768.86	765.19	748.2(-3.87%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-221	-30	-233	-186	0.05	43%	-0.02	-76.1	2.4%	0	-1.9	33	0
25	Jan_30_2014	817.86	823.84	803.47	774.6	773.35	773.4	778.3(1.03%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-53	-0	-35	-106	0.04	44%		-79.5	2.35%	0	-1.4	37	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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