Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. Feb. 10, 2014

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $753.0000 (-1.36%) ($742.4000 - $763.3000) on Mon. Feb. 10, 2014.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   2.43% (three month average)
RSI   36
Latest Price   $753.0000(-1.36%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX advances 1.2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX declines -4.5% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
XLE(93%)    OIH(89%)    XOP(87%)    IWM(65%)    SPY(64%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -1.215% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-25%)    UUP(-13%)    XLF(-7%)    SHY(-5%)    IGOV(-5%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.215% (StdDev 2.43%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -1.3%

Resistance Level   $780.81
5 Day Moving Average   $739.1(1.88%)
10 Day Moving Average   $747.87(0.69%)
20 Day Moving Average   $780.81(-3.56%)
To recent high   -16.2%
To recent low   6.2%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.01%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.01% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 5.55% (three month std-dev: 2.43%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 6 Average positive next day return: 4.34%(83%) Average negative next day return: -1.45%(17%) Sample size 6 Average positive next three day return: 5.28%(67%) Average negative next three day return: -0.96%(33%) Sample size 6 Average positive next weekly return: 8.01%(33%) Average negative next weekly return: -12.91%(67%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

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i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Feb_10_2014	815.12	780.81	747.87	739.1	739.39	755.33	753(-1.36%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	303	150	389	44	0.03	44%	-0.03	-65.8	2.43%	0	-0.6	36	0
2	Feb_7_2014	815.33	785.58	748.88	730.4	731.44	741.69	763.4(3%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	345	100	447	39	0.03	44%	-0.04	-68.9	2.49%	0	-0.5	41	0
3	Feb_6_2014	815.64	789.71	749.67	727.36	725.04	723.46	741.2(4.56%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.3	-67	-20	-32	-172	0.03	42%	-0.07	-69.9	2.52%	0	-1	36	0
4	Feb_5_2014	816.23	795.47	757.59	734.78	730.85	721.19	708.9(-2.76%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-300	-110	-308	-277	0.03	38%	-0.08	-69.5	2.45%	0	-1.8	30	0
5	Feb_4_2014	816.87	803.88	771.91	747.08	745.9	726.61	729(2.75%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-399	-190	-431	-301	0.04	42%	-0.04	-66.3	2.45%	0	-1.7	31	0

6	Feb_3_2014	817.19	810.37	783.13	757.98	756.96	740.51	709.5(-5.17%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-580	-160	-653	-361	0.05	40%	-0.06	-68.1	2.48%	0	-2.4	36	0
7	Jan_31_2014	817.72	817.96	795.15	769.14	768.86	765.19	748.2(-3.87%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-221	-30	-233	-186	0.05	43%	-0.02	-76.1	2.4%	0	-1.9	33	0
8	Jan_30_2014	817.86	823.84	803.47	774.6	773.35	773.4	778.3(1.03%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-53	-0	-35	-106	0.04	44%	0	-79.5	2.35%	0	-1.4	37	0
9	Jan_29_2014	817.83	829.76	808.25	784.28	776.73	772.53	770.4(-1.67%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-226	-70	-240	-182	0.05	44%	0.01	-68.5	2.36%	0	-1.8	34	0
10	Jan_28_2014	817.71	835.08	814.6	801.28	792.9	773.3	783.5(2.38%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-363	-200	-406	-233	0.03	44%	0.03	-50.9	2.37%	0	-1.5	33	0

11	Jan_27_2014	817.44	840.64	816.9	813.08	811.25	780.94	765.3(-1.32%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.5	-786	-270	-905	-429	0.05	42%	0.04	-36.1	2.35%	0	-2.3	35	0
12	Jan_24_2014	817.13	846.75	825.88	824.9	828.56	812.5	775.5(-6.19%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.7	-651	-120	-752	-349	0.07	42%	0.05	-22	2.36%	0	-2.4	36	0
13	Jan_23_2014	816.7	851.5	833.68	835.52	838.4	841.56	826.7(-3.36%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-36	40	-31	-49	0.04	43%	0.13	-2.7	2.23%	0	-1	42	0
14	Jan_22_2014	815.66	852.77	836.57	835.14	835.63	844.63	855.4(1.53%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	226	80	280	63	0.04	45%	0.18	3.4	2.27%	0	0.1	39	0
15	Jan_21_2014	814.22	852.4	837.92	830.32	830.46	835.24	842.5(2.2%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	201	40	253	43	0.05	45%	0.18	8.2	2.27%	0	-0.4	43	0

16	Jan_17_2014	812.74	852.44	838.94	822.06	826.35	826.63	824.4(-0.51%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.1	16	20	43	-66	0.04	47%	0.16	5.9	2.28%	0	-1.2	36	0
17	Jan_16_2014	811.46	853.24	841.92	827.62	824.2	825.68	828.6(0.46%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0	-107	0	-101	-124	0.03	51%	0.13	21.7	2.28%	0	-1	40	0
18	Jan_15_2014	810.37	852.18	845.24	831.82	830.91	826.08	824.8(-0.78%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-20	-40	-1	-76	0.04	51%	0.17	22	2.35%	0	-1.2	44	0
19	Jan_14_2014	808.96	851.9	852.38	838.28	836.03	822.73	831.3(3.76%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-369	-120	-418	-221	0.05	51%	0.17	23.9	2.35%	0	-0.8	49	0
20	Jan_13_2014	807.62	850.38	856.73	847	846.37	835.74	801.2(-5.98%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.7	-386	-90	-444	-212	0.05	48%	0.12	25.9	2.32%	0	-1.8	43	0

21	Jan_10_2014	806.64	850.96	866.4	857.72	857.24	849.33	852.2(0.31%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-169	-70	-198	-82	0.03	58%	0.21	33	2.22%	0	0	55	0
22	Jan_9_2014	804.97	848.19	869.48	858.02	859.06	857	849.6(-0.88%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-175	-10	-209	-73	0.06	58%	0.24	25.2	2.32%	0	0	56	0
23	Jan_8_2014	803.03	847.07	871.2	860.5	861.46	865.16	857.1(-2.03%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	51	30	50	53	0.05	56%	0.24	23.5	2.32%	0	0.3	67	0
24	Jan_7_2014	801.11	845.85	870.76	868.84	863.65	861.13	874.9(2.35%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	18	-40	4	60	0.03	54%	0.28	30.8	2.35%	0	0.9	66	0
25	Jan_6_2014	798.9	843.49	868.2	868.7	868.96	857.75	854.8(0.13%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-221	-90	-282	-39	0.03	53%		31.6	2.36%	0	0.4	68	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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