Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Oct. 24, 2013

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $826.5000 (1.37%) ($801.3900 - $829.4800) on Thu. Oct. 24, 2013.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   2.31% (three month average)
RSI   62
Latest Price   $826.5000(1.37%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX advances 0.1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX advances 6.3% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
OIH(89%)    XOP(87%)    IWM(65%)    SPY(64%)    USO(62%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -1.155% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-25%)    SHY(-5%)    IGOV(-5%)    BNDX(-4%)    GLD(3%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.155% (StdDev 2.31%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 1.2%

5 Day Moving Average   $837.62(-1.33%)
10 Day Moving Average   $819.56(0.85%)
20 Day Moving Average   $784.12(5.4%)
To recent high   -3.3%
To recent low   25.2%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.01%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.01% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 5.28% (three month std-dev: 2.31%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 1 Average positive next day return: 2.95%(100%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 1 Average positive next three day return: 3.51%(100%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 1 Average positive next weekly return: 7.71%(100%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

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i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Oct_24_2013	723.67	784.12	819.56	837.62	835.69	820.56	826.5(1.37%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-364	-130	-476	-26	0.03	61%	0.24	47.7	2.31%	0	1	62	NAN
2	Oct_23_2013	721.95	781	812.79	837	842.16	838.7	815.3(-4.61%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.5	-168	-10	-248	71	0.03	61%	0.19	46.2	2.34%	0	0.9	64	NAN
3	Oct_22_2013	720.58	778.36	803.43	837.86	841.19	850.83	854.7(1.65%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	275	90	274	276	0.04	65%	0.22	44.2	2.27%	0	1.9	65	NAN
4	Oct_21_2013	718.97	773.48	790.17	823.62	830.31	845.61	840.8(-1.18%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.5	477	150	522	340	0.03	65%	0.23	37.2	2.26%	0	1.9	65	NAN
5	Oct_18_2013	717.33	769.24	780.26	813.96	815.19	831.56	850.8(3.33%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	532	150	592	351	0.03	69%	0.18	33.6	2.31%	0	2.6	69	NAN

6	Oct_17_2013	716.02	764.89	770.77	799.18	798.44	815.01	823.4(0.46%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	494	140	554	312	0.03	67%	0.14	26.9	2.3%	0	2.2	61	NAN
7	Oct_16_2013	715.05	762.88	762.36	785.18	784.15	798.81	819.6(4.61%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	540	130	619	304	0.04	67%	0.13	18.9	2.31%	0	2.3	58	NAN
8	Oct_15_2013	714.15	761.32	755.82	763.74	766.61	781.86	783.5(-1.14%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.9	453	150	528	226	0.04	65%	0.1	-1.1	2.26%	0	1	53	NAN
9	Oct_14_2013	713.44	760.52	752.79	751.18	748.55	769.49	792.5(2.01%)	UT	OpenLong	75	2	472	190	559	211	0.03	65%	0.12	-15.3	2.25%	0	1.5	55	NAN
10	Oct_11_2013	712.6	758.72	747.35	741.46	737.74	751.36	776.9(3.12%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.8	490	110	588	197	0.04	65%	0.08	-29.8	2.25%	0	0.9	53	NAN

11	Oct_10_2013	712.01	757.8	744.99	738.74	733.49	727.61	753.4(5.76%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.8	19	-80	37	-35	0.04	63%	0.05	-28.3	2.24%	0	-0.2	44	NAN
12	Oct_9_2013	711.68	758.25	746.11	736.72	736.74	724.11	712.4(-1.15%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.2	-433	-120	-490	-262	0.03	59%	-0.05	-24.9	2.14%	0	-2.4	26	NAN
13	Oct_8_2013	712.04	761.59	751.63	746.52	745.4	739.37	720.7(-3.12%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.6	-270	-60	-301	-177	0.03	59%	-0.05	0	2.17%	0	-2.5	26	NAN
14	Oct_7_2013	712.37	763.73	756.31	753.74	749.83	749.38	743.9(-2.54%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-61	-20	-58	-69	0.02	63%	0.03	29.8	2.14%	0	-1.5	43	NAN
15	Oct_4_2013	712.13	764.57	758.31	753.34	750.55	751.43	763.3(2.69%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.7	60	-0	84	-13	0.03	66%	0.11	46.3	2.15%	0	-0.1	52	NAN

16	Oct_3_2013	711.34	763.32	759.16	752.24	746.53	750.29	743.3(-2.38%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-30	10	-22	-55	0.04	64%	0.07	51	2.15%	0	-1.3	46	NAN
17	Oct_2_2013	710.87	763.1	764.01	757.14	748.74	749.66	761.4(0.61%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	85	-20	108	16	0.03	67%	0.08	58.7	2.12%	0	-0.1	51	NAN
18	Oct_1_2013	710.28	761.55	767.46	757.9	752.49	742.78	756.8(2.01%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-172	-110	-197	-97	0.02	67%	0.12	61.6	2.12%	0	-0.2	44	NAN
19	Sep_30_2013	709.44	759.74	768.99	759.54	757.89	747.81	741.9(-2.1%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-380	-100	-444	-189	0.04	67%	0.1	66	2.12%	0	-0.9	47	NAN
20	Sep_27_2013	708.76	758	771.23	763.76	764.92	762.21	757.8(-1.3%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-140	-20	-164	-67	0.01	67%	0.1	60.5	2.11%	0	-0	52	NAN

21	Sep_26_2013	708.02	755.42	771.79	766.98	766.61	767.96	767.8(0.34%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0	-50	10	-63	-11	0.02	67%	0.12	59.4	2.1%	0	0.5	65	NAN
22	Sep_25_2013	707.19	753.26	771.36	772.04	771.14	767.64	765.2(0.03%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.2	-37	-40	-54	13	0.02	70%	0.12	75	2.11%	0	0.4	65	NAN
23	Sep_24_2013	706.35	749.66	772.43	778.78	778.36	765.25	765(0.26%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-227	-120	-286	-49	0.02	64%	0.14	77.1	2.15%	0	0.5	67	NAN
24	Sep_23_2013	705.38	746.64	771.99	779.98	783.06	774.65	763(-1.41%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-306	-60	-383	-73	0.02	64%	0.16	82.2	2.24%	0	0.5	69	NAN
25	Sep_20_2013	704.28	743.87	771.7	779.38	783.66	791.48	773.9(-2.42%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	76	90	59	125	0.03	54%		82.5	2.23%	0	0.9	78	NAN
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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