Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

^ ERX: Intraday Hourly Forecast Similar Waves GapOpen Research Timing Gains Losses Strategies Practice

Wed. Sep. 18, 2013

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $798.9000 (3.62%) ($763.9000 - $808.1000) on Wed. Sep. 18, 2013.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   2.5% (three month average)
RSI   73
Latest Price   $798.9000(3.62%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX advances 0.6% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX advances 3.9% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
OIH(89%)    XOP(87%)    IWM(66%)    SPY(65%)    USO(62%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -1.25% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-25%)    SHY(-5%)    IGOV(-5%)    BNDX(-4%)    GLD(3%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.25% (StdDev 2.5%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 3.9%

5 Day Moving Average   $770.52(3.68%)
10 Day Moving Average   $762.17(4.82%)
20 Day Moving Average   $733.28(8.95%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   34.1%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.01%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.01% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 4.78% (three month std-dev: 2.5%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 21 Average positive next day return: 1.54%(48%) Average negative next day return: -1.78%(52%) Sample size 21 Average positive next three day return: 3.67%(57%) Average negative next three day return: -3.43%(43%) Sample size 21 Average positive next weekly return: 5.89%(57%) Average negative next weekly return: -4.22%(43%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20131018

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Sep_18_2013	700.74	733.28	762.17	770.52	770.66	775.85	798.9(3.62%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	210	50	220	181	0.05	57%	0.25	62.1	2.5%	0	1.9	73	0
2	Sep_17_2013	699	726.82	754.82	765.84	766.59	767.53	771(1.45%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	71	10	54	122	0.02	57%	0.22	53.9	2.47%	0	1.3	76	0
3	Sep_16_2013	697.47	721.34	749.43	763.32	765.78	765.48	760(-0.08%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	58	10	38	116	0.03	57%	0.23	42.7	2.52%	0	1.1	67	0
4	Sep_13_2013	695.86	717.92	743.65	762.86	762.32	765.65	760.6(-0.2%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	57	30	38	115	0.02	61%	0.23	39	2.55%	0	1.3	66	0
5	Sep_12_2013	694.27	714.84	737.82	757.72	758.84	766.08	762.1(-1.73%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	221	70	233	186	0.02	61%	0.23	32	2.62%	0	1.5	70	0

6	Sep_11_2013	692.65	712.15	733.73	751.96	750.85	758.98	775.5(2.25%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.8	226	70	235	197	0.03	57%	0.29	27.7	2.63%	0	2.1	79	0
7	Sep_10_2013	690.66	709.09	724.89	742.16	743.46	751.6	758.4(0.09%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	254	80	272	200	0.04	57%	0.29	19.9	2.68%	0	1.8	72	0
8	Sep_9_2013	688.65	706.8	719.03	733.54	734.72	742.73	757.7(3.1%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	228	80	241	187	0.03	57%	0.32	7.3	2.68%	0	2.1	74	0
9	Sep_6_2013	686.45	704.94	713.47	721.74	726.63	735.33	734.9(0.22%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	242	100	263	180	0.03	57%	0.28	-10.9	2.69%	0	1.4	59	0
10	Sep_5_2013	684.54	704.62	709.01	714.84	718.06	726.72	733.3(0.94%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	213	100	233	153	0.02	54%	0.3	-25.1	2.71%	0	1.3	56	0

11	Sep_4_2013	682.5	703.87	701.94	712.78	711.87	717.94	726.5(1.57%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	169	60	186	116	0.03	54%	0.23	-28.9	2.75%	0	1.1	52	0
12	Sep_3_2013	680.91	703.82	696.41	705.06	709.77	709.4	715.3(2.38%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	122	20	139	70	0.03	54%	0.32	-36.5	2.76%	0	0.5	47	0
13	Aug_30_2013	678.72	705.01	690.98	702.38	703.27	705.8	698.7(-0.24%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-79	30	-91	-44	0.03	50%	0.06	-31.6	2.84%	0	-0.3	45	0
14	Aug_29_2013	678.31	707.38	690.34	703.76	704.51	710.14	700.4(-3.13%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	161	60	194	63	0.04	50%	0.07	-26.3	2.84%	0	-0.3	43	0
15	Aug_28_2013	677.81	710.18	690.32	701.84	701.99	700.74	723(5.1%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	99	-10	125	22	0.07	52%	0.12	-26.4	2.81%	0	0.5	45	0

16	Aug_27_2013	676.97	710.14	688.79	689.44	694.58	698.88	687.9(-1.99%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-21	70	-9	-56	0.04	49%	0.09	-40.4	2.76%	0	-0.8	40	0
17	Aug_26_2013	676.33	711.77	691.98	686.12	688.46	703.24	701.9(-0.52%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.6	282	160	349	79	0.03	49%	0.13	-51.5	2.77%	0	-0.4	41	0
18	Aug_23_2013	675.43	712.84	693.37	677.72	678.62	690.28	705.6(2.14%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	292	120	368	65	0.03	49%	0.14	-64.6	2.78%	0	-0.3	38	0
19	Aug_22_2013	674.46	714.53	695.23	675.34	672.45	673.68	690.8(4.51%)	RB	SmallLong	20	0.6	49	-0	85	-60	0.04	46%	0.12	-68.6	2.76%	0	-0.9	32	0
20	Aug_21_2013	673.66	717.36	699.35	677.74	675.62	666.96	661(-1.53%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.6	-186	-100	-190	-175	0.05	43%	0.02	-65.4	2.74%	0	-2.1	17	0

21	Aug_20_2013	673.52	721.2	705.88	688.36	684.83	671.23	671.3(1.73%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-352	-150	-389	-239	0.04	46%	0.02	-56.5	2.73%	0	-2	37	0
22	Aug_19_2013	673.38	725.66	712.03	698.72	697.49	684.28	659.9(-4.87%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.7	-351	-140	-394	-221	0.04	46%	-0.02	-39	2.78%	0	-2.9	36	0
23	Aug_16_2013	673.52	730.63	720.84	710.66	709.32	698.43	693.7(-1.29%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-261	-110	-296	-157	0.03	53%	0.05	-21.7	2.79%	0	-2	42	0
24	Aug_15_2013	673.2	734.06	726.52	717.72	715.74	710.71	702.8(-1.58%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-218	-60	-249	-125	0.04	53%	0.05	0.5	2.8%	0	-2	39	0
25	Aug_14_2013	672.85	735.64	732.3	724.18	722.59	720.21	714.1(-1.24%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-43	-30	-47	-31	0.04	56%		19	2.79%	0	-1.4	40	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

Click to see actual return for next trading day.