Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Aug. 1, 2013

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $761.0000 (4.98%) ($743.3000 - $763.0000) on Thu. Aug. 1, 2013.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   2.92% (three month average)
RSI   62
Latest Price   $761.0000(4.98%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX advances 0.4% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX advances 1.2% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
OIH(89%)    XOP(87%)    IWM(66%)    SPY(65%)    USO(62%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -1.46% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-25%)    SHY(-5%)    IGOV(-5%)    BNDX(-4%)    GLD(3%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.46% (StdDev 2.92%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 2.3%

5 Day Moving Average   $733.74(3.72%)
10 Day Moving Average   $741.81(2.59%)
20 Day Moving Average   $722.47(5.33%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   27.7%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.01%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.01% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 3.75% (three month std-dev: 2.92%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 3 Average positive next day return: 1.51%(100%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 3 Average positive next three day return: 3.36%(67%) Average negative next three day return: -2.22%(33%) Sample size 3 Average positive next weekly return: 6.11%(33%) Average negative next weekly return: -1.98%(67%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

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i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Aug_1_2013	665.64	722.47	741.81	733.74	731.41	740.15	761(4.98%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	294	70	339	160	0.04	57%	0.18	88	2.92%	0	1.4	62	0
2	Jul_31_2013	664.47	716.74	738.62	731.12	727.1	723.11	724.9(0.89%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.2	-10	-50	-20	20	0.05	55%	0.11	78.8	2.89%	0	0.3	57	0
3	Jul_30_2013	663.71	712.91	737.48	732.66	729.59	722.67	718.48(-0.64%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-174	-80	-215	-50	0.04	55%	0.11	75.5	2.96%	0	0.2	62	0
4	Jul_29_2013	662.99	709.26	736.16	740.62	736.04	731.09	723.1(-2.44%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-142	-70	-181	-23	0.04	55%	0.12	81.5	2.96%	0	0.4	58	0
5	Jul_26_2013	662.22	704.68	735.54	746.9	744.36	736.5	741.2(-0.9%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.1	-97	-80	-135	17	0.03	55%	0.16	79.5	2.96%	0	0.9	68	0

6	Jul_25_2013	661.17	699.41	732.99	750.86	749.8	741	747.9(2.09%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.1	-161	-90	-216	6	0.05	55%	0.18	81.7	2.95%	0	1.1	72	0
7	Jul_24_2013	659.95	693.53	728.91	747.3	752.68	752.21	732.6(-3.39%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.3	-17	20	-51	87	0.05	57%	0.16	73.1	2.95%	0	0.9	74	0
8	Jul_23_2013	658.88	687.93	724.66	742.54	747.46	758.6	758.3(0.5%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	230	120	237	209	0.03	61%	0.22	59.5	2.94%	0	1.5	82	0
9	Jul_22_2013	657.41	679.85	718.55	730.72	734.43	753.15	754.5(-0.85%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.5	390	190	425	284	0.03	62%	0.21	42.1	2.97%	0	1.6	83	0
10	Jul_19_2013	656.02	673.2	710.84	722.44	721.13	736.33	761(4.23%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.9	404	140	440	294	0.05	62%	0.22	35.7	2.98%	0	2	86	0

11	Jul_18_2013	654.59	665.92	701.03	713.14	712.65	715.7	730.1(3.01%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	209	30	212	201	0.05	60%	0.17	26.2	2.95%	0	1.6	79	0
12	Jul_17_2013	653.48	662.91	692.51	708.42	708.51	705.94	708.8(1.37%)	N/A	N/A	0	0	-17	-30	-54	94	0.04	55%	0.18	29	2.95%	0	1.2	77	0
13	Jul_16_2013	652.29	661.94	686.07	703.98	708.11	709.6	699.2(-1.95%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	28	30	-1	113	0.04	56%	0.19	31.2	3.08%	0	1	78	0
14	Jul_15_2013	651.03	660.93	680.32	703.94	705.75	711.09	713.1(-0.2%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	143	60	130	181	0.02	50%	0.14	31.7	3.09%	0	1.5	87	0
15	Jul_12_2013	650.15	657.88	671.59	696.92	700.42	706.63	714.5(1.13%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	161	80	158	170	0.03	48%	0.17	22.8	3.49%	0	1.7	72	0

16	Jul_11_2013	649.04	655.64	663.26	686.96	693.38	700.41	706.5(2.9%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	199	100	206	179	0.04	48%	0.14	16.6	3.54%	0	1.6	72	0
17	Jul_10_2013	648.14	652.31	655.31	674.24	680.69	694.21	686.6(-1.77%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	220	170	239	163	0.05	48%	0.04	4.2	3.53%	0	1.2	50	0
18	Jul_9_2013	647.89	650.72	648.39	665.24	666.58	686.34	699(3.1%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	340	210	390	191	0.04	48%	0.08	-7.8	3.52%	0	1.7	47	0
19	Jul_8_2013	647.36	649.76	637.94	653.22	654.06	667.16	678(2%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	322	140	380	148	0.04	48%	0.06	-21	3.52%	0	1	47	0
20	Jul_5_2013	646.96	650.26	632.26	642.54	644.48	646.81	664.7(3.39%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	119	30	148	31	0.05	48%	0.01	-27.8	3.51%	0	0.5	51	0

21	Jul_3_2013	646.89	650.42	627.55	636.2	637.57	640.95	642.9(0.2%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-27	40	-16	-59	0.04	46%	0.01	-42.4	3.46%	0	-0.3	43	0
22	Jul_2_2013	646.85	651.08	630.48	633.46	637.67	642.14	641.6(0.42%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	118	70	153	12	0.05	46%	0.01	-55.4	3.53%	0	-0.3	51	0
23	Jul_1_2013	646.77	652.92	635.42	628.72	633.45	634.2	638.9(2.29%)	RB	SmallLong	20	0.3	54	30	77	-16	0.05	46%	-0.01	-64.9	3.54%	0	-0.5	47	0
24	Jun_28_2013	646.81	655.6	639.62	620.08	626.98	633.2	624.6(-1.33%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.2	47	100	73	-32	0.05	46%	-0	-74.9	3.53%	0	-1	40	0
25	Jun_27_2013	646.83	658.37	643.01	620.16	619.16	632.71	633(0.6%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	153	150	201	10	0.06	46%		-76.7	3.53%	0	-0.8	40	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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