Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Jun. 27, 2013

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $633.0000 (0.6%) ($632.5000 - $650.5000) on Thu. Jun. 27, 2013.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   3.53% (three month average)
RSI   40
Latest Price   $633.0000(0.6%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX advances 0.4% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX declines -4.1% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
OIH(89%)    XOP(87%)    IWM(66%)    SPY(65%)    USO(62%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -1.765% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-25%)    SHY(-5%)    IGOV(-5%)    BNDX(-4%)    GLD(4%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.765% (StdDev 3.53%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -0.9%

Resistance Level   $658.37
5 Day Moving Average   $620.16(2.07%)
10 Day Moving Average   $643.01(-1.56%)
20 Day Moving Average   $658.37(-3.85%)
To recent high   -15.9%
To recent low   18.7%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.01%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.01% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 4.85% (three month std-dev: 3.53%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 4 Average positive next day return: 0.42%(50%) Average negative next day return: -1.57%(50%) Sample size 4 Average positive next three day return: 4.87%(50%) Average negative next three day return: -0.89%(50%) Sample size 4 Average positive next weekly return: 5.01%(50%) Average negative next weekly return: -2.79%(50%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20130727

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jun_27_2013	646.83	658.37	643.01	620.16	619.16	632.71	633(0.6%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	153	150	201	10	0.06	46%	0	-76.7	3.53%	0	-0.8	40	NAN
2	Jun_26_2013	646.81	662.63	647.36	617.68	615.74	620.76	629.2(1.83%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	141	50	187	2	0.08	47%	0	-74.5	3.53%	0	-1	45	NAN
3	Jun_25_2013	646.79	667.4	649.21	627.7	617.96	605.6	617.9(3.73%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-227	-190	-249	-162	0.09	47%	0	-67.4	3.54%	0	-1.4	46	NAN
4	Jun_24_2013	646.76	673	653.67	643.94	637.14	610.71	595.7(-4.69%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.4	-438	-320	-502	-247	0.12	46%	-0.05	-61	3.52%	0	-2.3	39	NAN
5	Jun_21_2013	647.11	678.98	663.41	662.02	661.54	630.33	625(0.71%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-1.2	-519	-330	-604	-265	0.1	47%	0.02	-56.4	3.48%	0	-1.8	40	NAN

6	Jun_20_2013	647	683.8	670.66	668.66	675.52	663.58	620.6(-8.64%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.7	-428	-90	-500	-210	0.14	47%	0	-49.3	3.48%	0	-2.3	43	NAN
7	Jun_19_2013	646.98	689	676.37	680.24	683.76	692.76	679.3(-2.83%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	127	110	151	55	0.06	50%	0.08	-39.4	3.32%	0	-0.4	43	NAN
8	Jun_18_2013	646.49	692.19	674.17	673.36	676.59	687.47	699.1(1.89%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	222	130	271	76	0.04	50%	0.16	-35.5	3.32%	0	0.2	44	NAN
9	Jun_17_2013	645.48	694.53	671.9	665.44	668.54	674.76	686.1(4.24%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	133	80	173	13	0.06	50%	0.13	-28.4	3.33%	0	-0.3	42	NAN
10	Jun_14_2013	644.64	696.2	672.4	666.1	664.39	665.72	658.2(-2.99%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-29	10	-16	-67	0.04	50%	0.11	-21.2	3.29%	0	-1.2	42	NAN

11	Jun_13_2013	643.93	697.87	674.55	673.64	671.1	662.31	678.5(5.21%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-72	-100	-67	-87	0.05	50%	0.15	-15.3	3.31%	0	-0.7	43	NAN
12	Jun_12_2013	642.94	698.95	678.35	672.28	677.34	663.05	644.9(-2.21%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-235	-130	-258	-167	0.05	47%	0.09	-15.2	3.25%	0	-1.8	35	NAN
13	Jun_11_2013	642.36	702.17	686.52	674.42	677.06	679.89	659.5(-4.34%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-178	40	-190	-143	0.06	47%	0.03	-11.4	3.23%	0	-1.6	32	NAN
14	Jun_10_2013	642.19	703.35	693.53	678.52	677.58	691.64	689.4(-0.93%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	241	140	303	54	0.04	49%	0.19	-6.6	3.19%	0	-0.5	35	NAN
15	Jun_7_2013	640.96	702.84	695.48	679.66	677.58	674.23	695.9(3.6%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.6	128	-20	171	-1	0.05	49%	0.23	-1.9	3.19%	0	-0.3	46	NAN

16	Jun_6_2013	639.51	702.45	697.58	676.18	674.28	663.53	671.7(2.46%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-245	-120	-268	-176	0.06	47%	0.21	5.1	3.16%	0	-1.2	50	NAN
17	Jun_5_2013	638.2	703.48	702.61	686.16	683.49	674.34	655.6(-3.59%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.2	-277	-110	-311	-175	0.07	47%	0.19	32.2	3.15%	0	-1.9	45	NAN
18	Jun_4_2013	636.99	705.23	711.98	700.48	697	685.04	680(-2.17%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-198	-140	-227	-111	0.06	49%	0.24	63.6	3.12%	0	-1.1	47	NAN
19	Jun_3_2013	635.45	705.03	719.28	710.56	706.96	692.65	695.1(2.45%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-318	-160	-378	-137	0.06	49%	0.27	84.3	3.11%	0	-0.4	57	NAN
20	May_31_2013	633.76	703.34	722.16	713.5	718.69	708.96	678.5(-5.97%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.3	-180	-70	-220	-58	0.07	49%	0.24	90.7	3.12%	0	-0.9	55	NAN

21	May_30_2013	632.22	701.09	723.77	721.6	720.29	721.28	721.6(-0.77%)	N/A	N/A	0	0	-56	0	-79	13	0.04	53%	0.34	88.2	3.05%	0	0.7	61	NAN
22	May_29_2013	630.09	695.31	721.65	721.46	716.44	728.41	727.2(-0.44%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	102	100	106	90	0.05	53%	0.35	73	3.07%	0	0.8	61	NAN
23	May_28_2013	627.92	690.5	719.36	725.6	720.34	719.31	730.4(2.9%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	180	-30	194	139	0.06	53%	0.49	79.9	3.07%	0	1	63	NAN
24	May_24_2013	624.86	685.14	714.11	730.1	724.83	704.46	709.8(-1.28%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-276	-220	-345	-69	0.06	52%	0.31	83.6	3.22%	0	0.6	63	NAN
25	May_23_2013	622.91	680.05	711.01	732.32	733.47	721.36	719(-0.26%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-298	-110	-373	-71	0.07	52%		88.7	3.24%	0	0.9	69	NAN
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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