Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

^ ERX: Intraday Hourly Forecast Similar Waves GapOpen Research Timing Gains Losses Strategies Practice

Mon. May. 20, 2013

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $752.9000 (4.44%) ($722.1000 - $756.8000) on Mon. May. 20, 2013.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   3.26% (three month average)
RSI   74
Latest Price   $752.9000(4.44%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX advances 2.2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX advances 5.8% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
OIH(89%)    XOP(87%)    IWM(66%)    SPY(65%)    USO(62%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -1.63% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-25%)    SHY(-5%)    IGOV(-5%)    GLD(4%)    TIP(7%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.63% (StdDev 3.26%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 4.3%

5 Day Moving Average   $712.04(5.74%)
10 Day Moving Average   $697.56(7.93%)
20 Day Moving Average   $660.28(14.03%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   41.1%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.01%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.01% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 7.47% (three month std-dev: 3.26%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 15 Average positive next day return: 1.81%(27%) Average negative next day return: -2.43%(73%) Sample size 15 Average positive next three day return: 4.23%(40%) Average negative next three day return: -3.64%(60%) Sample size 15 Average positive next weekly return: 5.79%(40%) Average negative next weekly return: -7.39%(60%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20130620

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	May_20_2013	617.12	660.28	697.56	712.04	708.07	724.05	752.9(4.44%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	447	140	494	304	0.08	52%	0.5	86.3	3.26%	0	1.9	74	0
2	May_17_2013	614.07	650.64	688.8	696.46	695.9	700.05	720.9(5.15%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	207	40	215	182	0.07	52%	0.41	78.5	3.33%	0	1.4	73	0
3	May_16_2013	611.59	641.84	682.15	687.18	686.2	692.1	685.6(-1.71%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	66	60	49	118	0.05	49%	0.34	63.9	3.3%	0	0.9	72	0
4	May_15_2013	609.5	635.13	676.36	687.14	681.39	691.75	697.5(-0.82%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	190	80	192	183	0.07	48%	0.15	50.8	3.32%	0	1.2	74	0
5	May_14_2013	608.59	627.07	666.91	685.04	679.4	680.3	703.3(4.19%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	159	-20	156	167	0.05	48%	0.37	40.4	3.34%	0	1.5	76	0

6	May_13_2013	606.35	620.28	659.3	680.96	677.9	671.03	675(0.07%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.1	-86	-80	-135	61	0.03	46%	0.3	33	3.31%	0	1.1	77	0
7	May_10_2013	604.55	614.05	654.05	679.84	680.38	678.51	674.5(-1.59%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.1	-34	-20	-80	104	0.05	46%	0.27	26.7	3.27%	0	1.2	80	0
8	May_9_2013	602.91	611.3	647.09	675.96	679.04	684.76	685.4(-0.23%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	157	70	140	206	0.04	46%	0.31	26.5	3.29%	0	1.5	85	0
9	May_8_2013	601.04	609.26	638.92	663.36	669.12	682.25	687(0.6%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.5	301	160	310	273	0.04	47%	0.3	25.1	3.31%	0	1.7	83	0
10	May_7_2013	599.27	606.77	630.32	645.56	651.62	673.33	682.9(2.02%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.9	410	260	441	318	0.06	47%	0.33	19.3	3.33%	0	1.8	84	0

11	May_6_2013	597.27	603.99	619.9	634.6	632.76	656	669.4(2.18%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	460	250	503	331	0.05	47%	0.34	12.5	3.32%	0	1.6	68	0
12	May_3_2013	595.27	601.24	609.01	624.9	621.57	629.91	655.1(5.25%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	359	80	387	276	0.08	47%	0.3	1.9	3.29%	0	1.4	70	0
13	May_2_2013	593.49	598.77	597.81	614.42	614.29	609.51	622.4(4.08%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.2	3	-60	-21	73	0.08	44%	0.22	-12.2	3.25%	0	0.7	48	0
14	May_1_2013	592.17	597.92	590.47	610.84	610.75	613.23	598(-4.79%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.4	-74	30	-100	4	0.09	42%	0.19	-22.4	3.23%	0	0	40	0
15	Apr_30_2013	591.06	598.53	584.45	612	611.62	619.08	628.1(1.16%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	207	80	239	109	0.07	44%	0.26	-27.1	3.17%	0	0.8	45	0

16	Apr_29_2013	589.54	599.04	578.32	602.46	605.48	608.27	620.9(3.02%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	150	50	183	49	0.06	47%	0.24	-32.5	3.18%	0	0.6	46	0
17	Apr_26_2013	588.11	600.49	570.96	590.48	594.31	604.17	602.7(-0.3%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.3	103	140	141	-11	0.07	47%	0.23	-39.2	3.2%	0	0.1	47	0
18	Apr_25_2013	586.78	603.14	572.58	578.42	583.13	602.69	604.5(0.12%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	349	260	435	90	0.08	47%	0.24	-42.4	3.22%	0	0	49	0
19	Apr_24_2013	585.39	606.01	576.76	566.96	568.23	584.45	603.8(4.03%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	373	210	465	95	0.08	47%	0.25	-45.3	3.24%	0	-0.1	50	0
20	Apr_23_2013	583.91	608.71	580.44	552.9	554.51	563.58	580.4(3.46%)	RB	SmallLong	20	0.6	188	120	252	-5	0.1	45%	0.2	-49.5	3.21%	0	-0.6	46	0

21	Apr_22_2013	582.74	611.8	585.84	551.06	547.06	552.01	561(3.43%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.2	40	40	80	-80	0.1	45%	0.15	-52.2	3.18%	0	-1.1	36	0
22	Apr_19_2013	581.84	616.27	592.14	548.86	549.81	545.44	542.4(-0.88%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-64	-50	-38	-141	0.07	42%	0.12	-57.8	3.17%	0	-1.7	31	0
23	Apr_18_2013	581.15	621.21	599.67	566.12	557.31	542.11	547.2(2.57%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-394	-240	-431	-283	0.12	42%	0.13	-56.4	3.2%	0	-1.8	31	0
24	Apr_17_2013	580.39	626.44	606.45	588.42	580.63	554.19	533.5(-6.6%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.5	-515	-360	-579	-324	0.11	42%	0.13	-46.9	3.2%	0	-2.5	26	0
25	Apr_16_2013	579.63	631.94	615.12	611.92	609.33	572.51	571.2(3.85%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-1.4	-677	-440	-775	-381	0.07	46%		-40.1	3.09%	0	-2	32	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

Click to see actual return for next trading day.