Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

^ ERX: Intraday Hourly Forecast Similar Waves GapOpen Research Timing Gains Losses Strategies Practice

Tue. Mar. 26, 2013

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $663.1000 (3.3%) ($649.0000 - $663.6000) on Tue. Mar. 26, 2013.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   2.75% (three month average)
RSI   62
Latest Price   $663.1000(3.3%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX advances 0.9% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX advances 0.2% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
OIH(89%)    XOP(87%)    IWM(66%)    SPY(65%)    USO(62%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -1.375% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-25%)    SHY(-5%)    IGOV(-5%)    GLD(5%)    TIP(7%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.375% (StdDev 2.75%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 1.6%

5 Day Moving Average   $646.44(2.58%)
10 Day Moving Average   $650.68(1.91%)
20 Day Moving Average   $641.91(3.3%)
To recent high   -1.4%
To recent low   45.2%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.01%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.01% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 2.97% (three month std-dev: 2.75%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 5 Average positive next day return: 1.18%(60%) Average negative next day return: -1.23%(40%) Sample size 5 Average positive next three day return: 3.59%(80%) Average negative next three day return: -1.28%(20%) Sample size 5 Average positive next weekly return: 6.59%(60%) Average negative next weekly return: -1.8%(40%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20130426

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Mar_26_2013	554.93	641.91	650.68	646.44	647.03	652.86	663.1(3.3%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	132	70	154	66	0.05	66%	0.32	53.9	2.75%	0	1.1	62	0
2	Mar_25_2013	553.14	638.5	649.32	640.4	643.64	646.82	641.9(-0.9%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	103	50	121	49	0.05	64%	0.31	24.4	2.74%	0	0.2	58	0
3	Mar_22_2013	551.45	635.5	650.06	642.82	641.72	641.21	647.7(2.14%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.2	-7	-10	-13	10	0.05	64%	0.27	14.9	2.76%	0	0.5	64	0
4	Mar_21_2013	549.97	634.39	650.1	647.66	643.68	640.46	634.1(-1.75%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-106	-50	-134	-20	0.05	64%	0.26	14	2.77%	0	-0	59	0
5	Mar_20_2013	548.55	633.11	650.83	655.32	652.28	642.24	645.4(1.97%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.4	-99	-120	-132	2	0.04	64%	0.19	15.8	2.79%	0	0.5	62	0

6	Mar_19_2013	547.53	631.78	649.43	655.42	656.74	646.9	632.92(-3.22%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-237	-100	-296	-60	0.1	64%	0.17	11.9	2.8%	0	0	58	0
7	Mar_18_2013	546.62	633.03	649.26	659.04	658.3	662.33	654(-2.66%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.2	-41	40	-71	50	0.07	69%	0.3	20.9	2.78%	0	0.9	78	0
8	Mar_15_2013	544.97	632.13	645.58	657.86	657.92	666.58	671.9(-0.07%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.6	278	90	301	210	0.07	71%	0.34	19.4	2.81%	0	1.7	91	0
9	Mar_14_2013	543.11	631.15	640.18	652.98	650.75	654.28	672.4(4.1%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	140	30	141	136	0.07	71%	0.37	20.9	2.83%	0	1.8	62	0
10	Mar_13_2013	541.11	629.46	634.8	646.16	646.53	649.26	645.9(-0.78%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	82	30	75	104	0.05	69%	0.3	17	2.81%	0	0.8	62	0

11	Mar_12_2013	539.5	628.96	632.3	642.7	643.26	647.23	651(0.45%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	120	50	121	117	0.05	69%	0.23	15.1	2.83%	0	1	58	0
12	Mar_11_2013	538.24	627.92	626.6	637.92	638.04	643.81	648.1(0.09%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	122	60	132	92	0.07	69%	0.21	13.1	2.83%	0	1	46	0
13	Mar_8_2013	537.09	627.48	619.6	631.2	633.85	639.3	647.5(1.44%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	192	70	224	97	0.06	69%	0.16	7.1	2.81%	0	1	51	0
14	Mar_7_2013	536.23	626.33	617.03	625.42	625.23	632.26	638.3(1.54%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	107	80	130	38	0.05	69%	0.14	1.9	2.83%	0	0.6	45	0
15	Mar_6_2013	535.46	625.86	613.61	621.92	619.82	628.4	628.6(0.24%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	164	90	203	48	0.05	69%	0.16	-0.3	2.83%	0	0.1	47	0

16	Mar_5_2013	534.6	625.8	612.42	620.42	617.81	618.2	627.1(2.05%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	148	-10	187	32	0.08	69%	0.21	-3.2	2.83%	0	0.1	48	0
17	Mar_4_2013	533.47	625.21	615.19	613.48	612.52	611.24	614.5(-0.66%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-42	-20	-35	-62	0.06	69%	0.2	-9.7	2.83%	0	-0.5	47	0
18	Mar_1_2013	532.4	626.06	617.44	605.76	606.31	617.43	618.6(-0.35%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.6	47	130	74	-35	0.08	69%	0.19	-14.6	2.83%	0	-0.4	46	0
19	Feb_28_2013	531.38	625.94	621.16	607.26	605.18	613.8	620.8(-0.05%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.7	280	90	345	85	0.06	69%	0.22	-6.9	2.81%	0	-0.3	50	0
20	Feb_27_2013	530.21	625.89	623.36	604.24	604.19	595.2	621.1(4.84%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.8	-33	-100	-23	-64	0.08	69%	0.16	-2.8	2.82%	0	-0.2	49	0

21	Feb_26_2013	529.35	626.41	625.04	603.84	604.18	596.55	592.4(2.87%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-406	-90	-461	-239	0.14	67%	0.11	6.3	2.79%	0	-1.7	45	0
22	Feb_25_2013	528.79	627.13	629.46	617.66	617.85	613.18	575.9(-8.02%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-2.2	-102	-50	-113	-69	0.11	65%	0.08	33.7	2.8%	0	-2.6	45	0
23	Feb_22_2013	528.38	628.97	636.72	630.32	629.34	611.82	626.1(3.37%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-247	-200	-292	-113	0.06	76%	0.17	76.5	2.63%	0	-0.2	50	0
24	Feb_21_2013	527.48	627.29	637.01	637.12	636.39	622.53	605.7(-2.16%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.7	-507	-160	-603	-219	0.08	75%	0.17	89.9	2.62%	0	-1.2	51	0
25	Feb_20_2013	526.61	626.46	639.95	644.96	647.72	646.86	619.1(-6.41%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1.3	-56	0	-78	12	0.09	75%		103.7	2.61%	0	-0.4	52	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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