Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Feb. 14, 2013

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $660.1000 (2.36%) ($636.0800 - $665.3000) on Thu. Feb. 14, 2013.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   2.49% (three month average)
RSI   67
Latest Price   $660.1000(2.36%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX advances 1.1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX advances 2.5% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
OIH(89%)    XOP(87%)    IWM(66%)    SPY(65%)    USO(62%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -1.245% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-25%)    SHY(-5%)    IGOV(-5%)    GLD(5%)    TIP(6%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.245% (StdDev 2.49%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 3%

5 Day Moving Average   $644.04(2.49%)
10 Day Moving Average   $635.63(3.85%)
20 Day Moving Average   $616.68(7.04%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   54.2%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.01%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.01% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 4.31% (three month std-dev: 2.49%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 7 Average positive next day return: 2.29%(43%) Average negative next day return: -3.28%(57%) Sample size 7 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: -2.78%(100%) Sample size 7 Average positive next weekly return: 1.68%(43%) Average negative next weekly return: -3.85%(57%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20130314

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Feb_14_2013	523.66	616.68	635.63	644.04	641.45	646.64	660.1(2.36%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	188	40	203	141	0.05	84%	0.28	104.9	2.49%	0	1.6	67	0
2	Feb_13_2013	522.2	611	630.92	637.34	637.7	639.18	644.9(0.95%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	109	20	112	100	0.05	84%	0.22	96.4	2.54%	0	1.2	69	0
3	Feb_12_2013	521.06	605.85	628.21	634.48	633.36	636.26	638.8(0.88%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	49	30	39	78	0.04	84%	0.17	89.7	2.55%	0	1.1	69	0
4	Feb_11_2013	520.16	600.63	627.3	632.28	630.36	636.23	633.2(-1.55%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	145	60	149	134	0.05	84%	0.14	82.7	2.55%	0	1	65	0
5	Feb_8_2013	519.42	595.69	624.18	628.5	627.71	630.45	643.2(2.65%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	172	30	179	151	0.07	77%	0.16	75.4	2.54%	0	1.3	72	0

6	Feb_7_2013	518.57	590.02	620.25	626	622.71	624.5	626.6(-0.63%)	UD	OpenLong	65	0	20	0	-3	90	0.06	67%	0.14	74	2.63%	0	1	74	0
7	Feb_6_2013	517.83	584.6	616.62	623.46	622.44	624.97	630.6(0.45%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	107	20	98	135	0.07	69%	0.12	68.4	2.84%	0	1.2	77	0
8	Feb_5_2013	517.21	578.97	611.91	621.02	620.12	620.93	627.8(2.2%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	37	0	12	112	0.08	69%	0.09	69.8	2.89%	0	1.2	78	0
9	Feb_4_2013	516.76	573.74	607.98	621.74	620.62	619.91	614.3(-2.6%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	38	-10	6	134	0.07	69%	0.03	80.1	2.89%	0	1	78	0
10	Feb_1_2013	516.62	569.72	603.9	618.88	621.32	619.32	630.7(2.74%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	58	-10	27	151	0.1	64%	0.11	87	2.95%	0	1.6	83	0

11	Jan_31_2013	516.07	564	596.46	613.62	615.9	621.33	613.9(-0.73%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	44	70	9	148	0.06	64%	0.13	91.9	2.93%	0	1.3	82	0
12	Jan_30_2013	515.39	559.16	589.78	608.44	612.29	623.31	618.4(-2.06%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	316	140	328	280	0.09	64%	0.16	94.8	2.93%	0	1.6	86	0
13	Jan_29_2013	514.56	552.5	581.92	601.14	602.45	610.48	631.4(5.23%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.9	257	100	260	249	0.11	64%	0.22	92.3	2.94%	0	2.3	91	0
14	Jan_28_2013	513.43	543.79	571.72	592.5	593.33	601.26	600(-0.73%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	196	100	190	212	0.07	62%	0.14	81.4	2.9%	0	1.7	82	0
15	Jan_25_2013	512.69	537.79	564.89	586.66	587.05	594.43	604.4(2.79%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	258	90	266	233	0.09	62%	0.21	66.9	2.89%	0	1.9	75	0

16	Jan_24_2013	511.63	531.6	557.18	576.78	577.66	585.4	588(1.05%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	196	100	197	191	0.08	62%	0.23	56.8	2.89%	0	1.6	77	0
17	Jan_23_2013	510.44	526.53	549.88	568.04	569.26	579.66	581.9(-1.07%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	268	130	288	209	0.06	56%	0.21	51	2.91%	0	1.7	76	0
18	Jan_22_2013	509.36	522.31	543.29	559.36	558.6	569.93	588.2(3.05%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.9	286	140	311	209	0.08	56%	0.2	50.2	3.05%	0	2.1	85	0
19	Jan_18_2013	508.33	518.37	536.44	547.86	546.81	558.86	570.8(2.85%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.8	257	150	277	196	0.08	51%	0.2	51.2	3.07%	0	1.9	87	0
20	Jan_17_2013	507.34	514.86	532.46	540	538.74	547.28	555(1.97%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	257	100	275	201	0.09	53%	0.13	50.6	3.05%	0	1.6	72	0

21	Jan_16_2013	506.7	512.72	528.66	534.76	532.36	534.75	544.3(1.08%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	120	20	113	139	0.08	56%	0.09	54.1	3.07%	0	1.4	69	0
22	Jan_15_2013	506.25	509.98	525.99	528.88	529.13	530.2	538.5(1.47%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	57	20	40	108	0.06	56%	0.08	51.9	3.14%	0	1.3	65	0
23	Jan_14_2013	505.85	506.91	520.87	524.56	525.89	529.96	530.7(-0.15%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	78	60	68	107	0.04	56%	0.06	46.7	3.13%	0	1.1	58	0
24	Jan_11_2013	505.55	504.55	513.98	523.12	522.21	528.05	531.5(0.51%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	110	70	112	102	0.04	56%	0.08	46.3	3.14%	0	1.3	53	0
25	Jan_10_2013	505.14	502.66	508.96	523.86	520.75	521.81	528.8(2.7%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	85	-0	85	86	0.07	52%		54.9	3.15%	0	1.3	56	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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