Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

^ ERX: Intraday Hourly Forecast Similar Waves GapOpen Research Timing Gains Losses Strategies Practice

Fri. Jan. 18, 2013

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $570.8000 (2.85%) ($553.0000 - $570.8000) on Fri. Jan. 18, 2013.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   3.07% (three month average)
RSI   87
Latest Price   $570.8000(2.85%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX advances 1.5% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX advances 4.4% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
OIH(89%)    XOP(87%)    IWM(66%)    SPY(65%)    USO(62%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -1.535% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-25%)    SHY(-5%)    IGOV(-5%)    GLD(5%)    TIP(6%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.535% (StdDev 3.07%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 2.8%

5 Day Moving Average   $547.86(4.19%)
10 Day Moving Average   $536.44(6.41%)
20 Day Moving Average   $518.37(10.11%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   33.3%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.01%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.01% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 5.35% (three month std-dev: 3.07%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 12 Average positive next day return: 2.48%(42%) Average negative next day return: -2.95%(58%) Sample size 12 Average positive next three day return: 1.68%(50%) Average negative next three day return: -2.69%(50%) Sample size 12 Average positive next weekly return: 2.32%(33%) Average negative next weekly return: -3.21%(67%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20130218

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jan_18_2013	508.33	518.37	536.44	547.86	546.81	558.86	570.8(2.85%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.8	257	150	277	196	0.08	51%	0.2	51.2	3.07%	0	1.9	87	0
2	Jan_17_2013	507.34	514.86	532.46	540	538.74	547.28	555(1.97%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	257	100	275	201	0.09	53%	0.13	50.6	3.05%	0	1.6	72	0
3	Jan_16_2013	506.7	512.72	528.66	534.76	532.36	534.75	544.3(1.08%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	120	20	113	139	0.08	56%	0.09	54.1	3.07%	0	1.4	69	0
4	Jan_15_2013	506.25	509.98	525.99	528.88	529.13	530.2	538.5(1.47%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	57	20	40	108	0.06	56%	0.08	51.9	3.14%	0	1.3	65	0
5	Jan_14_2013	505.85	506.91	520.87	524.56	525.89	529.96	530.7(-0.15%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	78	60	68	107	0.04	56%	0.06	46.7	3.13%	0	1.1	58	0

6	Jan_11_2013	505.55	504.55	513.98	523.12	522.21	528.05	531.5(0.51%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	110	70	112	102	0.04	56%	0.08	46.3	3.14%	0	1.3	53	0
7	Jan_10_2013	505.14	502.66	508.96	523.86	520.75	521.81	528.8(2.7%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	85	-0	85	86	0.07	52%	0.04	54.9	3.15%	0	1.3	56	0
8	Jan_9_2013	504.93	500.69	504.38	521.8	521.15	516.38	514.9(-0.39%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.4	-38	-70	-55	14	0.06	52%	0.02	62.1	3.22%	0	0.7	49	0
9	Jan_8_2013	504.82	499.07	501.8	522.52	521.42	519.69	516.9(-1.26%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.3	-61	-30	-83	4	0.06	52%	0.02	68	3.22%	0	0.9	57	0
10	Jan_7_2013	504.74	497.38	500.08	516.1	520.76	525.93	523.5(-2.19%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	169	100	189	109	0.06	52%	0.02	61.7	3.21%	0	1.3	62	0

11	Jan_4_2013	504.63	494.92	498.96	502.76	506.96	523.15	535.2(3.22%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.7	245	250	283	130	0.09	54%	0.04	43.9	3.2%	0	2.2	62	0
12	Jan_3_2013	504.42	491.6	495.49	491.78	490.82	515.6	518.5(0%)	UT	HoldLong	50	1.6	418	350	492	194	0.16	50%	0.04	30	3.2%	0	1.6	55	0
13	Jan_2_2013	504.23	488.75	494.87	484.7	480.67	490.78	518.5(6.95%)	UT	OpenLong	75	2.1	374	120	442	168	0.19	50%	0.03	19	3.24%	0	1.9	56	0
14	Dec_31_2012	504.06	486.14	491.9	478.82	475.02	466.04	484.8(6.13%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.4	-123	-160	-139	-75	0.18	46%	-0.05	7.7	3.11%	0	-0.1	52	0
15	Dec_28_2012	504.33	485.7	491.39	482.22	481.41	470.57	456.8(-4.89%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.6	-283	-160	-328	-147	0.12	42%	-0.1	10.3	3.01%	0	-1.8	44	0

16	Dec_27_2012	504.85	486.9	494.6	494.26	490.35	484	480.3(-0.58%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-194	-110	-232	-78	0.13	48%	-0.04	37.2	2.95%	0	-0.4	54	0
17	Dec_26_2012	505.03	486.7	496.35	499.32	498.73	492.24	483.1(-1.23%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-111	-90	-141	-20	0.05	48%	0.04	51.8	3.01%	0	-0.2	57	0
18	Dec_24_2012	504.83	485.73	497.38	506.16	504.52	496.7	489.1(-2.53%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-125	-120	-166	-2	0.03	48%	0.04	60.6	3.02%	0	0.2	62	0
19	Dec_21_2012	504.65	484.94	496.96	506.56	506.95	505.23	501.8(-2.94%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.3	-49	-20	-79	41	0.11	48%	0.12	73.2	3.01%	0	1.1	64	0
20	Dec_20_2012	504.02	484.04	495.2	501.64	503.66	512.34	517(2.25%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	153	130	160	131	0.05	48%	0.11	82.4	2.99%	0	2.1	65	0

21	Dec_19_2012	503.45	481.45	490.94	495.02	494.69	508.67	505.6(-2.26%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.8	266	200	297	171	0.08	48%	0.1	92.7	2.98%	0	1.7	62	0
22	Dec_18_2012	502.93	479.11	487.48	493.14	488.23	494.99	517.3(5.33%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.8	233	70	260	152	0.09	48%	0.09	98.2	2.98%	0	2.8	68	0
23	Dec_17_2012	502.47	476.33	481.8	487.94	486.87	480.71	491.1(2.91%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.3	-10	-100	-23	29	0.05	44%	0.05	120.6	2.91%	0	1.4	66	0
24	Dec_14_2012	502.24	473.67	479.46	486.22	488.01	481.48	477.2(-1.38%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-181	-80	-222	-56	0.04	45%	0.07	88.8	2.9%	0	0.3	53	0
25	Dec_13_2012	501.9	471.51	479.28	487.5	490.06	493.03	483.9(-2.48%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	3	60	-6	30	0.07	49%		70.3	2.95%	0	0.8	48	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

Click to see actual return for next trading day.