Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Dec. 20, 2012

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $517.0000 (2.25%) ($504.1000 - $517.8000) on Thu. Dec. 20, 2012.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   2.99% (three month average)
RSI   65
Latest Price   $517.0000(2.25%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX advances 1.3% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX advances 3.3% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
OIH(89%)    XOP(87%)    IWM(66%)    SPY(65%)    USO(62%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -1.495% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-25%)    SHY(-5%)    IGOV(-5%)    GLD(5%)    TIP(6%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.495% (StdDev 2.99%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 2.1%

5 Day Moving Average   $501.64(3.06%)
10 Day Moving Average   $495.2(4.4%)
20 Day Moving Average   $484.04(6.81%)
To recent high   -8.8%
To recent low   20.8%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.01%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.01% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 3.23% (three month std-dev: 2.99%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 6 Average positive next day return: 1.77%(50%) Average negative next day return: -0.97%(50%) Sample size 6 Average positive next three day return: 0.87%(17%) Average negative next three day return: -0.88%(83%) Sample size 6 Average positive next weekly return: 0.92%(50%) Average negative next weekly return: -1.54%(50%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20130120

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Dec_20_2012	504.02	484.04	495.2	501.64	503.66	512.34	517(2.25%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	153	130	160	131	0.05	48%	0.11	82.4	2.99%	0	2.1	65	0
2	Dec_19_2012	503.45	481.45	490.94	495.02	494.69	508.67	505.6(-2.26%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.8	266	200	297	171	0.08	48%	0.1	92.7	2.98%	0	1.7	62	0
3	Dec_18_2012	502.93	479.11	487.48	493.14	488.23	494.99	517.3(5.33%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.8	233	70	260	152	0.09	48%	0.09	98.2	2.98%	0	2.8	68	0
4	Dec_17_2012	502.47	476.33	481.8	487.94	486.87	480.71	491.1(2.91%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.3	-10	-100	-23	29	0.05	44%	0.05	120.6	2.91%	0	1.4	66	0
5	Dec_14_2012	502.24	473.67	479.46	486.22	488.01	481.48	477.2(-1.38%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-181	-80	-222	-56	0.04	45%	0.07	88.8	2.9%	0	0.3	53	0

6	Dec_13_2012	501.9	471.51	479.28	487.5	490.06	493.03	483.9(-2.48%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	3	60	-6	30	0.07	49%	0.15	70.3	2.95%	0	0.8	48	0
7	Dec_12_2012	501.13	468.87	478.51	485.76	488.33	494.55	496.2(1%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	177	110	199	111	0.08	49%	0.18	48.2	3.01%	0	1.5	62	0
8	Dec_11_2012	500.24	466.25	476.14	480.7	481.53	487.09	491.3(1.82%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	128	90	143	83	0.07	49%	0.13	24	3.02%	0	1.4	64	0
9	Dec_10_2012	499.59	464.11	473.03	474.78	476.28	482.1	482.5(-0.23%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.5	129	100	148	70	0.05	49%	0.08	4.1	3.04%	0	1.1	58	0
10	Dec_7_2012	499.17	462.33	471.93	471.78	471.91	475.96	483.6(1.77%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	92	60	103	59	0.08	52%	0.09	-9.4	3.04%	0	1.3	69	0

11	Dec_6_2012	498.71	460.49	471.87	470.02	470.9	470.46	475.2(0.91%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	34	-0	30	47	0.06	55%	0.08	-28.6	3.11%	0	0.9	69	0
12	Dec_5_2012	498.29	460.24	471.11	470.3	472.11	467.85	470.9(1.99%)	N/A	N/A	0	0	-54	-50	-78	19	0.11	55%	0.1	-35.3	3.19%	0	0.7	69	0
13	Dec_4_2012	497.8	462.07	470.08	470.98	474.49	471.34	461.7(-1.24%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.5	-41	-20	-65	33	0.08	55%	0.11	-24.7	3.18%	0	-0	58	0
14	Dec_3_2012	497.26	463.4	470.55	470.76	473.01	476.38	467.5(-1.54%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	21	60	5	67	0.09	55%	0.13	-25.1	3.19%	0	0.2	57	0
15	Nov_30_2012	496.61	463.91	467.72	471.78	470.25	477.65	474.8(-0.38%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	131	100	135	119	0.06	55%	0.19	-24.5	3.2%	0	0.5	60	0

16	Nov_29_2012	495.67	465.14	463.52	474	468.92	469.64	476.6(0.48%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	109	-20	109	109	0.13	55%	0.18	-18.5	3.23%	0	0.5	61	0
17	Nov_28_2012	494.77	465.97	458.84	472.18	468.78	462.85	474.3(2.97%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.1	-64	-110	-88	10	0.14	55%	0.21	-26.3	3.24%	0	0.3	49	0
18	Nov_27_2012	493.74	467.01	455.8	469.2	469.81	468.2	460.6(-2.54%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-71	-20	-87	-22	0.08	55%	0.14	-36.5	3.22%	0	-0.3	35	0
19	Nov_26_2012	493.03	468.71	454.71	470.06	468.23	474.7	472.6(-2.74%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	77	90	90	36	0.1	55%	0.16	-47.1	3.2%	0	0.2	45	0
20	Nov_23_2012	492.26	469.18	452.03	462.61	465.21	471.41	485.9(3.94%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	232	110	282	83	0.07	55%	0.16	-66.3	3.19%	0	0.6	51	0

21	Nov_21_2012	491.49	469.41	447.86	451.43	452.98	461.76	467.5(1.76%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.6	96	150	136	-23	0.07	53%	0.08	-86	3.15%	0	-0.1	40	0
22	Nov_20_2012	491.1	472.33	447.95	443.55	444.5	459	459.4(-1.18%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.6	221	230	290	12	0.09	53%	0.13	-90.8	3.15%	0	-0.5	41	0
23	Nov_19_2012	490.48	476.11	452.66	440.59	439.21	444.2	464.9(6.79%)	RB	SmallLong	20	0.8	197	70	263	-2	0.13	53%	0.14	-81.2	3.14%	0	-0.4	41	0
24	Nov_16_2012	489.8	480.83	454.81	437.59	435.84	429.99	435.36(1.25%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-137	-110	-125	-171	0.13	49%	0.14	-71	3.02%	0	-1.4	33	0
25	Nov_15_2012	489.1	487.2	459.28	439.99	440.99	434.23	430(0.45%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-177	-100	-173	-187	0.1	49%		-56.7	3.04%	0	-1.5	37	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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