Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Fri. Sep. 14, 2012

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $601.1000 (3.89%) ($587.0000 - $617.5000) on Fri. Sep. 14, 2012.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   3.75% (three month average)
RSI   73
Latest Price   $601.1000(3.89%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX advances 2.6% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX advances 6.9% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
OIH(89%)    XOP(87%)    IWM(66%)    SPY(65%)    USO(62%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -1.875% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-26%)    SHY(-5%)    IGOV(-4%)    TIP(6%)    GLD(6%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.875% (StdDev 3.75%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 2.3%

5 Day Moving Average   $558.46(7.64%)
10 Day Moving Average   $529.38(13.55%)
20 Day Moving Average   $514.87(16.75%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   82.4%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.01%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.01% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 6.18% (three month std-dev: 3.75%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 5 Average positive next day return: 2.46%(40%) Average negative next day return: -1.5%(60%) Sample size 5 Average positive next three day return: 6.43%(40%) Average negative next three day return: -1.77%(60%) Sample size 5 Average positive next weekly return: 5.11%(40%) Average negative next weekly return: -4.07%(60%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20121014

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Sep_14_2012	433.35	514.87	529.38	558.46	561.84	581.48	601.1(3.89%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	438	260	483	303	0.16	72%	0.27	46.8	3.75%	0	2.7	73	NAN
2	Sep_13_2012	432.2	510.08	516.57	544.2	544.3	556.81	578.6(5.37%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	276	160	301	202	0.19	71%	0.24	45.7	3.77%	0	2.8	72	NAN
3	Sep_12_2012	431.17	505.8	507.53	529.12	532.71	542.2	549.1(1.74%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	232	150	258	155	0.09	71%	0.2	37.9	3.76%	0	2.3	60	NAN
4	Sep_11_2012	430.29	503.22	502.32	514.36	519.65	531.8	539.7(3.04%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.6	211	190	241	121	0.09	68%	0.2	20.9	3.77%	0	2.3	59	NAN
5	Sep_10_2012	429.41	501.23	497.99	502.32	505.3	523.22	523.8(-1.13%)	UD	OpenLong	75	1.6	261	270	306	124	0.07	68%	0.16	9.8	3.8%	0	1.6	54	NAN

6	Sep_7_2012	428.71	500.39	495.42	495.54	493.69	507.51	529.8(5.29%)	UT	OpenLong	75	2.6	281	180	334	120	0.12	68%	0.17	9.7	3.8%	0	2.3	54	NAN
7	Sep_6_2012	427.97	499.05	491.32	484.98	486.39	487.38	503.2(5.87%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.6	105	20	135	14	0.14	69%	0.1	11.1	3.75%	0	0.4	44	NAN
8	Sep_5_2012	427.54	498.74	491.56	483.12	482.33	479.86	475.3(-0.88%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-109	-40	-116	-87	0.06	68%	0.03	20.9	3.85%	0	-2.1	41	NAN
9	Sep_4_2012	427.42	498.74	494.57	488.42	487.26	485.4	479.5(-2.12%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-37	-30	-34	-45	0.14	68%	0.04	57.6	3.85%	0	-2.1	41	NAN
10	Aug_31_2012	427.23	499.88	497.58	492.7	492.05	484.8	489.9(2.7%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-77	-110	-84	-56	0.1	64%	0.05	59.7	3.92%	0	-0.8	44	NAN

11	Aug_30_2012	427.01	499.16	499.83	495.06	495.55	489.13	477(-3.42%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-139	-90	-158	-82	0.07	59%	0.09	46.9	3.93%	0	-1.3	33	NAN
12	Aug_29_2012	426.64	497.79	503.81	498.2	498.93	499.3	493.9(-1.57%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-36	10	-39	-27	0.06	61%	0.13	48.9	4.07%	0	-0.2	43	NAN
13	Aug_28_2012	426.1	496.41	504.6	501.18	499.31	501.98	501.8(0.18%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0	30	30	37	9	0.06	61%	0.08	61.1	4.09%	0	0.3	54	NAN
14	Aug_27_2012	425.75	494.25	504.71	501.72	499.83	498.57	500.9(-0.16%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0	5	-30	7	0	0.06	61%	0.18	72	4.12%	0	0.3	56	NAN
15	Aug_24_2012	424.99	492.88	505.09	503.38	501.88	496.65	501.7(1.83%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-70	-80	-84	-26	0.08	61%	0.04	83.3	4.12%	0	0.4	67	NAN

16	Aug_23_2012	424.83	491.28	505.97	505.6	505.64	501.1	492.7(-3.16%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-84	-60	-105	-20	0.09	61%	-0	85.5	4.12%	0	0.1	66	NAN
17	Aug_22_2012	424.85	489.1	507.55	510.16	509.39	507.11	508.8(0.85%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0	-27	-40	-46	30	0.08	61%	-0.01	76	4.1%	0	0.7	84	NAN
18	Aug_21_2012	424.9	484.43	506.49	508.44	510.79	510.19	504.5(-0.92%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	17	10	3	58	0.1	63%	-0.06	63	4.1%	0	0.6	68	NAN
19	Aug_20_2012	425.14	479.93	505.64	507.98	508	511.68	509.2(-0.7%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	26	50	11	72	0.05	63%	-0.01	58.9	4.17%	0	0.9	72	NAN
20	Aug_17_2012	425.18	475.98	502.43	506.98	507.09	511.4	512.8(-0.52%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	103	60	101	108	0.06	63%	0.02	61.8	4.18%	0	1.1	63	NAN

21	Aug_16_2012	425.09	472.37	498.44	506.54	504.86	504.32	515.5(3.06%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	45	-20	32	83	0.09	63%	0.03	68.9	4.19%	0	1.3	65	NAN
22	Aug_15_2012	424.96	468.46	491.34	504.84	503.17	502.78	500.2(-0.4%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.1	-11	-20	-33	55	0.07	61%	-0.05	78.6	4.19%	0	1	69	NAN
23	Aug_14_2012	425.19	465.14	487.7	504.26	503.47	505.4	502.2(-0.4%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	59	20	44	102	0.06	59%	-0.09	85.6	4.24%	0	1.2	77	NAN
24	Aug_13_2012	425.57	461.16	483.1	502.76	500.56	503.56	504.2(-1.25%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	70	30	54	118	0.08	59%	-0.05	91.5	4.28%	0	1.3	77	NAN
25	Aug_10_2012	425.79	456.42	479.72	496.82	497.06	501.54	510.6(0.71%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	111	60	100	142	0.1	59%		89.3	4.29%	0	1.7	70	NAN
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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