Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

^ ERX: Intraday Hourly Forecast Similar Waves GapOpen Research Timing Gains Losses Strategies Practice

Thu. Sep. 6, 2012

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $503.2000 (5.87%) ($484.9000 - $513.5000) on Thu. Sep. 6, 2012.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   3.75% (three month average)
RSI   44
Latest Price   $503.2000(5.87%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX advances 0.4% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX declines -2.5% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
OIH(89%)    XOP(87%)    IWM(66%)    SPY(65%)    USO(62%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -1.875% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-26%)    SHY(-5%)    IGOV(-4%)    TIP(6%)    GLD(6%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.875% (StdDev 3.75%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 3.6%

5 Day Moving Average   $484.98(3.76%)
10 Day Moving Average   $491.32(2.42%)
20 Day Moving Average   $499.05(0.83%)
To recent high   -2.4%
To recent low   52.7%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.01%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.01% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 2.26% (three month std-dev: 3.75%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20121006

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Sep_6_2012	427.97	499.05	491.32	484.98	486.39	487.38	503.2(5.87%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.6	105	20	135	14	0.14	69%	0.1	11.1	3.75%	0	0.4	44	NAN
2	Sep_5_2012	427.54	498.74	491.56	483.12	482.33	479.86	475.3(-0.88%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-109	-40	-116	-87	0.06	68%	0.03	20.9	3.85%	0	-2.1	41	NAN
3	Sep_4_2012	427.42	498.74	494.57	488.42	487.26	485.4	479.5(-2.12%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-37	-30	-34	-45	0.14	68%	0.04	57.6	3.85%	0	-2.1	41	NAN
4	Aug_31_2012	427.23	499.88	497.58	492.7	492.05	484.8	489.9(2.7%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-77	-110	-84	-56	0.1	64%	0.05	59.7	3.92%	0	-0.8	44	NAN
5	Aug_30_2012	427.01	499.16	499.83	495.06	495.55	489.13	477(-3.42%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-139	-90	-158	-82	0.07	59%	0.09	46.9	3.93%	0	-1.3	33	NAN

6	Aug_29_2012	426.64	497.79	503.81	498.2	498.93	499.3	493.9(-1.57%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-36	10	-39	-27	0.06	61%	0.13	48.9	4.07%	0	-0.2	43	NAN
7	Aug_28_2012	426.1	496.41	504.6	501.18	499.31	501.98	501.8(0.18%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0	30	30	37	9	0.06	61%	0.08	61.1	4.09%	0	0.3	54	NAN
8	Aug_27_2012	425.75	494.25	504.71	501.72	499.83	498.57	500.9(-0.16%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0	5	-30	7	0	0.06	61%	0.18	72	4.12%	0	0.3	56	NAN
9	Aug_24_2012	424.99	492.88	505.09	503.38	501.88	496.65	501.7(1.83%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-70	-80	-84	-26	0.08	61%	0.04	83.3	4.12%	0	0.4	67	NAN
10	Aug_23_2012	424.83	491.28	505.97	505.6	505.64	501.1	492.7(-3.16%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-84	-60	-105	-20	0.09	61%	-0	85.5	4.12%	0	0.1	66	NAN

11	Aug_22_2012	424.85	489.1	507.55	510.16	509.39	507.11	508.8(0.85%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0	-27	-40	-46	30	0.08	61%	-0.01	76	4.1%	0	0.7	84	NAN
12	Aug_21_2012	424.9	484.43	506.49	508.44	510.79	510.19	504.5(-0.92%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	17	10	3	58	0.1	63%	-0.06	63	4.1%	0	0.6	68	NAN
13	Aug_20_2012	425.14	479.93	505.64	507.98	508	511.68	509.2(-0.7%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	26	50	11	72	0.05	63%	-0.01	58.9	4.17%	0	0.9	72	NAN
14	Aug_17_2012	425.18	475.98	502.43	506.98	507.09	511.4	512.8(-0.52%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	103	60	101	108	0.06	63%	0.02	61.8	4.18%	0	1.1	63	NAN
15	Aug_16_2012	425.09	472.37	498.44	506.54	504.86	504.32	515.5(3.06%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	45	-20	32	83	0.09	63%	0.03	68.9	4.19%	0	1.3	65	NAN

16	Aug_15_2012	424.96	468.46	491.34	504.84	503.17	502.78	500.2(-0.4%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.1	-11	-20	-33	55	0.07	61%	-0.05	78.6	4.19%	0	1	69	NAN
17	Aug_14_2012	425.19	465.14	487.7	504.26	503.47	505.4	502.2(-0.4%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	59	20	44	102	0.06	59%	-0.09	85.6	4.24%	0	1.2	77	NAN
18	Aug_13_2012	425.57	461.16	483.1	502.76	500.56	503.56	504.2(-1.25%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	70	30	54	118	0.08	59%	-0.05	91.5	4.28%	0	1.3	77	NAN
19	Aug_10_2012	425.79	456.42	479.72	496.82	497.06	501.54	510.6(0.71%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	111	60	100	142	0.1	59%	0	89.3	4.29%	0	1.7	70	NAN
20	Aug_9_2012	425.79	451.06	475.23	488.94	490.49	497.56	507(1.95%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	133	110	127	149	0.11	59%	-0.09	83	4.29%	0	1.7	65	NAN

21	Aug_8_2012	426.16	444.92	468.88	475.74	482.49	492.59	497.3(0.53%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	193	190	204	160	0.13	59%	-0.15	69	4.29%	0	1.6	64	NAN
22	Aug_7_2012	426.8	439.47	460.33	468.72	469.55	483.41	494.7(4.26%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	177	210	190	137	0.15	59%	-0.22	56.1	4.3%	0	1.7	65	NAN
23	Aug_6_2012	427.74	433.46	451.86	460.78	461.81	472.4	474.5(0.7%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	197	170	218	133	0.07	59%	-0.24	48.3	4.27%	0	1.3	64	NAN
24	Aug_3_2012	428.77	429.32	447.21	460.32	458.69	455.69	471.2(6.85%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	58	-60	53	72	0.15	54%	-0.2	48.8	4.35%	0	1.4	67	NAN
25	Aug_2_2012	429.63	425.54	444	459.78	458.6	451.21	441(-4.59%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.7	-113	-120	-151	3	0.13	51%		56.9	4.31%	0	0.6	63	NAN
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

Click to see actual return for next trading day.