Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Tue. Aug. 21, 2012

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $504.5000 (-0.92%) ($501.0000 - $523.4800) on Tue. Aug. 21, 2012.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   4.1% (three month average)
RSI   68
Latest Price   $504.5000(-0.92%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX advances 0.1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX advances 3.9% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
OIH(89%)    XOP(87%)    IWM(66%)    SPY(65%)    USO(62%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -2.05% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-26%)    SHY(-5%)    IGOV(-4%)    TIP(6%)    GLD(6%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -2.05% (StdDev 4.1%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -2.2%

5 Day Moving Average   $508.44(-0.77%)
10 Day Moving Average   $506.49(-0.39%)
20 Day Moving Average   $484.43(4.14%)
To recent high   -2.1%
To recent low   55%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.02%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.02% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 6.59% (three month std-dev: 4.1%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 1 Average positive next day return: 1.1%(100%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 1 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: -1.24%(100%) Sample size 1 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: -2%(100%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20120921

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Aug_21_2012	424.9	484.43	506.49	508.44	510.79	510.19	504.5(-0.92%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	17	10	3	58	0.1	63%	-0.06	63	4.1%	0	0.6	68	NAN
2	Aug_20_2012	425.14	479.93	505.64	507.98	508	511.68	509.2(-0.7%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	26	50	11	72	0.05	63%	-0.01	58.9	4.17%	0	0.9	72	NAN
3	Aug_17_2012	425.18	475.98	502.43	506.98	507.09	511.4	512.8(-0.52%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	103	60	101	108	0.06	63%	0.02	61.8	4.18%	0	1.1	63	NAN
4	Aug_16_2012	425.09	472.37	498.44	506.54	504.86	504.32	515.5(3.06%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	45	-20	32	83	0.09	63%	0.03	68.9	4.19%	0	1.3	65	NAN
5	Aug_15_2012	424.96	468.46	491.34	504.84	503.17	502.78	500.2(-0.4%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.1	-11	-20	-33	55	0.07	61%	-0.05	78.6	4.19%	0	1	69	NAN

6	Aug_14_2012	425.19	465.14	487.7	504.26	503.47	505.4	502.2(-0.4%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	59	20	44	102	0.06	59%	-0.09	85.6	4.24%	0	1.2	77	NAN
7	Aug_13_2012	425.57	461.16	483.1	502.76	500.56	503.56	504.2(-1.25%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	70	30	54	118	0.08	59%	-0.05	91.5	4.28%	0	1.3	77	NAN
8	Aug_10_2012	425.79	456.42	479.72	496.82	497.06	501.54	510.6(0.71%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	111	60	100	142	0.1	59%	0	89.3	4.29%	0	1.7	70	NAN
9	Aug_9_2012	425.79	451.06	475.23	488.94	490.49	497.56	507(1.95%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	133	110	127	149	0.11	59%	-0.09	83	4.29%	0	1.7	65	NAN
10	Aug_8_2012	426.16	444.92	468.88	475.74	482.49	492.59	497.3(0.53%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	193	190	204	160	0.13	59%	-0.15	69	4.29%	0	1.6	64	NAN

11	Aug_7_2012	426.8	439.47	460.33	468.72	469.55	483.41	494.7(4.26%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	177	210	190	137	0.15	59%	-0.22	56.1	4.3%	0	1.7	65	NAN
12	Aug_6_2012	427.74	433.46	451.86	460.78	461.81	472.4	474.5(0.7%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	197	170	218	133	0.07	59%	-0.24	48.3	4.27%	0	1.3	64	NAN
13	Aug_3_2012	428.77	429.32	447.21	460.32	458.69	455.69	471.2(6.85%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	58	-60	53	72	0.15	54%	-0.2	48.8	4.35%	0	1.4	67	NAN
14	Aug_2_2012	429.63	425.54	444	459.78	458.6	451.21	441(-4.59%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.7	-113	-120	-151	3	0.13	51%	-0.26	56.9	4.31%	0	0.6	63	NAN
15	Aug_1_2012	430.77	424.02	443.89	460.48	462.68	461.7	462.2(1.58%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	22	-0	1	84	0.14	54%	-0.26	66.2	4.31%	0	1.4	74	NAN

16	Jul_31_2012	431.88	422.1	440.95	449.96	456.92	465.99	455(-3.64%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	129	190	128	130	0.13	54%	-0.22	74.8	4.34%	0	1.2	71	NAN
17	Jul_30_2012	432.85	419.26	437.74	440.82	443.72	463.65	472.2(0.79%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1.2	260	330	283	192	0.09	54%	-0.2	80.6	4.34%	0	2	79	NAN
18	Jul_27_2012	433.71	415.39	431.3	432.12	430.48	447.85	468.5(5.4%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.6	313	270	347	209	0.19	54%	-0.21	90.3	4.35%	0	2.3	70	NAN
19	Jul_26_2012	434.62	410.26	424.71	426.76	421.04	423.79	444.5(8.52%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	123	10	126	115	0.25	52%	-0.24	94.3	4.29%	0	1.6	64	NAN
20	Jul_25_2012	435.68	406.1	418.83	425.7	420.94	413.11	409.6(0.07%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.7	-86	-160	-118	11	0.16	50%	-0.3	83.2	4.17%	0	0.2	50	NAN

21	Jul_24_2012	436.98	402.98	417.15	430.62	427.99	418.3	409.3(-4.53%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-112	-180	-148	-3	0.24	50%	-0.36	67	4.18%	0	0.2	44	NAN
22	Jul_23_2012	438.58	399.32	414.16	433.36	430.71	428.78	428.7(-2.94%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.2	-65	-50	-93	18	0.14	52%	-0.33	53.1	4.15%	0	1	59	NAN
23	Jul_20_2012	440.05	395.54	410.55	429.48	429.28	437.69	441.7(0.57%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	121	140	128	98	0.14	52%	-0.35	43	4.14%	0	1.5	62	NAN
24	Jul_19_2012	441.58	390.72	405.85	422.06	421.17	432.65	439.2(1.15%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	206	180	230	135	0.22	52%	-0.31	33.1	4.14%	0	1.6	69	NAN
25	Jul_18_2012	442.97	388.11	402.58	411.04	410.82	420.88	434.2(2.65%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	206	170	231	130	0.17	52%		31.3	4.14%	0	1.6	70	NAN
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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