Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Jul. 19, 2012

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $439.2000 (1.15%) ($431.0000 - $442.9000) on Thu. Jul. 19, 2012.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   4.14% (three month average)
RSI   69
Latest Price   $439.2000(1.15%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX advances 2.7% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX advances 3% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
OIH(89%)    XOP(87%)    IWM(66%)    SPY(66%)    USO(62%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -2.07% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-26%)    SHY(-5%)    IGOV(-4%)    TIP(6%)    GLD(6%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -2.07% (StdDev 4.14%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -0.4%

5 Day Moving Average   $422.06(4.06%)
10 Day Moving Average   $405.85(8.22%)
20 Day Moving Average   $390.72(12.41%)
To recent high   -14.5%
To recent low   35%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.02%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.02% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 7.98% (three month std-dev: 4.14%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 2 Average positive next day return: 7.56%(100%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 2 Average positive next three day return: 9.48%(100%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 2 Average positive next weekly return: 10.18%(100%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20120819

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jul_19_2012	441.58	390.72	405.85	422.06	421.17	432.65	439.2(1.15%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	206	180	230	135	0.22	52%	-0.31	33.1	4.14%	0	1.6	69	NAN
2	Jul_18_2012	442.97	388.11	402.58	411.04	410.82	420.88	434.2(2.65%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	206	170	231	130	0.17	52%	-0.37	31.3	4.14%	0	1.6	70	NAN
3	Jul_17_2012	444.62	385.93	401.42	401.96	399.14	409.7	423(3.35%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	162	160	176	121	0.18	53%	-0.41	29.5	4.12%	0	1.4	73	NAN
4	Jul_16_2012	446.43	383.6	398.86	392.24	391.5	400.76	409.28(1.16%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	170	160	184	129	0.13	53%	-0.45	25.6	4.15%	0	1	73	NAN
5	Jul_13_2012	448.43	382.42	397.71	388.88	386.88	388.59	404.6(5.34%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	90	20	86	100	0.13	52%	-0.44	27.1	4.15%	0	0.9	64	NAN

6	Jul_12_2012	450.4	380.66	394.2	387.46	385.79	382.24	384.1(-1.21%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.1	-41	-80	-70	45	0.17	52%	-0.46	27.2	4.13%	0	0.1	62	NAN
7	Jul_11_2012	452.48	379.25	392.28	392.9	389.64	385.17	388.8(3.85%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.2	-79	-110	-115	28	0.26	52%	-0.44	31.1	4.21%	0	0.4	50	NAN
8	Jul_10_2012	454.49	378.09	388.04	400.98	397.43	389.35	374.4(-4.61%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1.1	-85	-170	-122	26	0.22	50%	-0.18	46.8	4.18%	0	-0.1	46	NAN
9	Jul_9_2012	455.31	377.14	384.27	406.08	405.66	394.12	392.5(-1.26%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.5	-106	-200	-145	12	0.2	50%	-0.41	57.2	4.2%	0	0.6	54	NAN
10	Jul_6_2012	457.17	375.78	380.38	407.38	406.74	405.51	397.5(-3.36%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.4	-94	-30	-129	10	0.18	50%	-0.38	67.4	4.22%	0	0.8	52	NAN

11	Jul_5_2012	458.91	374.12	375.32	401.32	406.42	417.2	411.3(-4.17%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	198	220	221	129	0.13	50%	-0.49	65	4.24%	0	1.5	59	NAN
12	Jul_3_2012	461.17	371.6	372.86	391.12	392.36	407.98	429.2(7.33%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.6	251	290	286	147	0.19	48%	-0.25	55.9	4.2%	0	2.4	65	NAN
13	Jul_2_2012	462.32	366.66	368.72	373.46	376.07	395.64	399.9(0.23%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	308	390	361	150	0.15	47%	-0.29	25.5	4.11%	0	1.5	58	NAN
14	Jun_29_2012	463.65	362.95	366.26	359.38	360.72	376.75	399(8.66%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.8	315	320	375	135	0.33	47%	-0.33	-3.3	4.1%	0	1.6	61	NAN
15	Jun_28_2012	465.17	359.32	364.67	349.92	344.99	356.5	367.2(1.92%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	139	190	172	40	0.17	43%	-0.4	-28.5	3.95%	0	0.4	52	NAN

16	Jun_27_2012	467.02	358.48	364.97	345.66	342.84	344.69	360.3(5.69%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	78	10	103	4	0.22	42%	-0.42	-41.7	3.96%	0	0.1	50	NAN
17	Jun_26_2012	469	358.45	364.48	352.24	346.63	333.48	340.9(3.46%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-199	-310	-226	-118	0.22	40%	-0.44	-35.2	3.89%	0	-0.8	46	NAN
18	Jun_25_2012	471.08	361.08	367.23	363.52	361.31	341	329.5(-6.31%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.5	-316	-410	-375	-140	0.28	40%	-0.42	-19.5	3.88%	0	-1.4	54	NAN
19	Jun_22_2012	473.09	363.67	370.15	373.68	376.74	359.78	351.7(1.68%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-1	-285	-290	-349	-93	0.16	41%	-0.32	-3.3	3.84%	0	-0.6	61	NAN
20	Jun_21_2012	474.61	365.22	371.83	381.2	383.77	381.61	345.9(-12.03%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-1.7	-140	-20	-188	6	0.29	40%	-0.32	9.6	3.89%	0	-0.9	60	NAN

21	Jun_20_2012	476.11	367.17	374.21	386.2	387.12	393.71	393.2(-1.03%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	184	130	184	183	0.15	42%	-0.2	18.1	3.63%	0	1.2	62	NAN
22	Jun_19_2012	477.06	366.32	371.17	378.26	379.26	385.94	397.3(4.47%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	155	130	155	154	0.19	42%	-0.22	8.1	3.66%	0	1.5	59	NAN
23	Jun_18_2012	478.1	365.42	364.8	371.9	370.54	380.54	380.3(-2.31%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	145	180	155	113	0.2	41%	-0.27	-3.7	3.62%	0	0.7	45	NAN
24	Jun_15_2012	479.39	364.37	359.5	366.34	366.12	372.58	389.3(4.96%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	178	120	205	97	0.21	42%	-0.26	-24.6	3.65%	0	1.3	52	NAN
25	Jun_14_2012	480.63	363.19	353.19	361.66	362.05	360.55	370.9(4.92%)	RB	SmallLong	20	0.5	13	-30	21	-13	0.17	39%		-45.6	3.59%	0	0.4	47	NAN
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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