Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

^ ERX: Intraday Hourly Forecast Similar Waves GapOpen Research Timing Gains Losses Strategies Practice

Wed. Apr. 18, 2012

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $460.9000 (-0.6%) ($456.0000 - $468.3000) on Wed. Apr. 18, 2012.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   2.88% (three month average)
RSI   40
Latest Price   $460.9000(-0.6%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX advances 0.9% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX declines -5.6% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
OIH(89%)    XOP(87%)    IWM(67%)    SPY(66%)    USO(62%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -1.44% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-27%)    SHY(-5%)    IGOV(-2%)    TIP(5%)    GLD(6%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.44% (StdDev 2.88%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.6%

Resistance Level   $488.76
5 Day Moving Average   $456.08(1.06%)
10 Day Moving Average   $460.37(0.12%)
20 Day Moving Average   $488.76(-5.7%)
To recent high   -23.9%
To recent low   4.7%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.01%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.01% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 6.89% (three month std-dev: 2.88%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 1 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: -0.04%(100%) Sample size 1 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: -3.96%(100%) Sample size 1 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: -5.99%(100%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20120518

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Apr_18_2012	510.29	488.76	460.37	456.08	455.56	460.2	460.9(-0.6%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.1	90	70	140	-60	0.11	38%	0.07	-76.5	2.88%	0	-0.8	40	0
2	Apr_17_2012	509.92	493.55	465.13	451.98	454.31	453.24	463.7(5.1%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.3	32	-0	75	-98	0.2	38%	0.12	-76	2.94%	0	-0.8	36	0
3	Apr_16_2012	509.31	499.41	471.01	447.34	451.52	450.93	441.2(-1.16%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-123	20	-102	-186	0.18	34%	0.15	-67.9	2.87%	0	-1.4	27	0
4	Apr_13_2012	508.54	506.1	478.19	452.64	453.11	455.38	446.4(-4.66%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.2	-27	40	9	-135	0.14	34%	-0.13	-62.6	2.89%	0	-1.5	32	0
5	Apr_12_2012	509.19	511.65	484.05	460.58	456.51	452.11	468.2(6.31%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-99	-90	-79	-159	0.25	36%	0.19	-60.7	2.84%	0	-1.1	41	0

6	Apr_11_2012	508.23	515.96	487.59	465.87	465.35	450.85	440.42(-0.02%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-318	-220	-334	-270	0.26	30%	0.06	-58.3	2.74%	0	-1.9	27	0
7	Apr_10_2012	507.92	522.64	496.12	480.53	477.06	460.9	440.5(-5.82%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-485	-260	-536	-331	0.34	30%	0.04	-49.1	2.78%	0	-2.3	25	0
8	Apr_9_2012	507.74	528.47	506.24	498.09	492.78	479.85	467.7(-3.79%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-370	-220	-406	-260	0.17	33%	0.16	-45.3	2.7%	0	-2	25	0
9	Apr_5_2012	506.95	533.14	512.37	507.19	505.88	493.22	486.1(-1.73%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-278	-180	-298	-217	0.21	35%	-0	-45	2.65%	0	-1.7	30	0
10	Apr_4_2012	506.96	536.86	515.11	510.62	510.96	505.71	494.64(-3.71%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-236	-70	-246	-206	0.23	35%	-0.02	-51.8	2.65%	0	-1.7	38	0

11	Apr_3_2012	507.08	539.75	519.95	512.33	511.09	518.55	513.7(-2.76%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.1	29	90	67	-84	0.23	46%	0.01	-59.6	2.61%	0	-1.1	42	0
12	Apr_2_2012	507.02	541.12	524.32	514.23	508.92	516.21	528.3(2.94%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.6	141	70	197	-27	0.22	48%	0.01	-69.3	2.75%	0	-0.6	40	0
13	Mar_30_2012	506.98	542.94	529.52	516.37	511.56	503.63	513.2(1.97%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-54	-140	-37	-105	0.19	45%	0.03	-72.2	2.75%	0	-1.2	43	0
14	Mar_29_2012	506.82	545.94	535.53	518.93	518.02	501.62	503.27(0.01%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-351	-230	-390	-235	0.17	45%	0.06	-73.5	2.74%	0	-1.7	40	0
15	Mar_28_2012	506.51	550.4	540.94	520.28	523.66	519.49	503.2(-3.82%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-281	-40	-308	-201	0.23	45%	-0.08	-79	2.77%	0	-2	39	0

16	Mar_27_2012	506.93	554.17	546.3	528.28	526.17	534.42	523.2(-2.93%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.2	33	100	56	-37	0.14	49%	0.01	-76.3	2.81%	0	-1.4	46	0
17	Mar_26_2012	506.9	557.76	551.11	535.77	530.96	527.83	539(2.47%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	68	-70	90	3	0.18	52%	0.06	-65	2.79%	0	-0.8	52	0
18	Mar_23_2012	506.59	560.7	552.38	545.33	537.99	517.91	526(3.14%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-407	-300	-473	-208	0.26	52%	0.03	-46.2	2.79%	0	-1.5	42	0
19	Mar_22_2012	506.42	564.66	555.73	555.25	553.83	534.1	510(-6.11%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.9	-499	-260	-586	-238	0.23	49%	0.07	-29	2.78%	0	-2.3	37	0
20	Mar_21_2012	506.06	569.22	561.01	564.25	567.1	558.07	543.2(-3.11%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-255	-100	-301	-116	0.16	57%	0.22	-10.3	2.7%	0	-1.3	38	0

21	Mar_20_2012	504.96	571.51	561.88	566.25	568.12	573.57	560.64(-4.46%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-34	80	-39	-17	0.14	72%	0.16	1.8	2.69%	0	-0.6	47	0
22	Mar_19_2012	504.17	572.74	559.81	568.27	567.06	576.14	586.8(1.94%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	241	110	288	99	0.18	80%	0.06	14.7	2.96%	0	0.7	46	0
23	Mar_16_2012	503.88	571.94	557.28	560.89	561.94	562.67	575.63(3.72%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	101	10	131	11	0.22	80%	0.06	14.3	3.03%	0	0.2	42	0
24	Mar_15_2012	503.59	571.51	556.61	557.08	556.96	557.99	555(0.33%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-72	10	-67	-86	0.22	78%	0.13	13.1	3.02%	0	-0.9	35	0
25	Mar_14_2012	502.92	571.25	560	557.54	558.25	561.21	553.2(-3.07%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.2	72	40	102	-20	0.13	63%		12.7	3.03%	0	-0.9	37	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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