Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

^ ERX: Intraday Hourly Forecast Similar Waves GapOpen Research Timing Gains Losses Strategies Practice

Mon. Apr. 9, 2012

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $467.7000 (-3.79%) ($463.1000 - $477.8000) on Mon. Apr. 9, 2012.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   2.7% (three month average)
RSI   25
Latest Price   $467.7000(-3.79%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX declines -1.8% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX declines -4.4% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
OIH(89%)    XOP(87%)    IWM(67%)    SPY(66%)    USO(62%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -1.35% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-27%)    SHY(-5%)    IGOV(-2%)    EMHY(4%)    TIP(5%)

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.35% (StdDev 2.7%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.5%

Resistance Level   $528.47
5 Day Moving Average   $498.09(-6.1%)
10 Day Moving Average   $506.24(-7.61%)
20 Day Moving Average   $528.47(-11.5%)
To recent high   -22.8%
To recent low   0%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.01%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.01% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 5.87% (three month std-dev: 2.7%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 11 Average positive next day return: 2.82%(55%) Average negative next day return: -1.8%(45%) Sample size 11 Average positive next three day return: 6.92%(45%) Average negative next three day return: -2.43%(55%) Sample size 11 Average positive next weekly return: 8.47%(64%) Average negative next weekly return: -4.79%(36%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20120509

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Apr_9_2012	507.74	528.47	506.24	498.09	492.78	479.85	467.7(-3.79%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-370	-220	-406	-260	0.17	33%	0.16	-45.3	2.7%	0	-2	25	0
2	Apr_5_2012	506.95	533.14	512.37	507.19	505.88	493.22	486.1(-1.73%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-278	-180	-298	-217	0.21	35%	-0	-45	2.65%	0	-1.7	30	0
3	Apr_4_2012	506.96	536.86	515.11	510.62	510.96	505.71	494.64(-3.71%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-236	-70	-246	-206	0.23	35%	-0.02	-51.8	2.65%	0	-1.7	38	0
4	Apr_3_2012	507.08	539.75	519.95	512.33	511.09	518.55	513.7(-2.76%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.1	29	90	67	-84	0.23	46%	0.01	-59.6	2.61%	0	-1.1	42	0
5	Apr_2_2012	507.02	541.12	524.32	514.23	508.92	516.21	528.3(2.94%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.6	141	70	197	-27	0.22	48%	0.01	-69.3	2.75%	0	-0.6	40	0

6	Mar_30_2012	506.98	542.94	529.52	516.37	511.56	503.63	513.2(1.97%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-54	-140	-37	-105	0.19	45%	0.03	-72.2	2.75%	0	-1.2	43	0
7	Mar_29_2012	506.82	545.94	535.53	518.93	518.02	501.62	503.27(0.01%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-351	-230	-390	-235	0.17	45%	0.06	-73.5	2.74%	0	-1.7	40	0
8	Mar_28_2012	506.51	550.4	540.94	520.28	523.66	519.49	503.2(-3.82%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-281	-40	-308	-201	0.23	45%	-0.08	-79	2.77%	0	-2	39	0
9	Mar_27_2012	506.93	554.17	546.3	528.28	526.17	534.42	523.2(-2.93%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.2	33	100	56	-37	0.14	49%	0.01	-76.3	2.81%	0	-1.4	46	0
10	Mar_26_2012	506.9	557.76	551.11	535.77	530.96	527.83	539(2.47%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	68	-70	90	3	0.18	52%	0.06	-65	2.79%	0	-0.8	52	0

11	Mar_23_2012	506.59	560.7	552.38	545.33	537.99	517.91	526(3.14%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-407	-300	-473	-208	0.26	52%	0.03	-46.2	2.79%	0	-1.5	42	0
12	Mar_22_2012	506.42	564.66	555.73	555.25	553.83	534.1	510(-6.11%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.9	-499	-260	-586	-238	0.23	49%	0.07	-29	2.78%	0	-2.3	37	0
13	Mar_21_2012	506.06	569.22	561.01	564.25	567.1	558.07	543.2(-3.11%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-255	-100	-301	-116	0.16	57%	0.22	-10.3	2.7%	0	-1.3	38	0
14	Mar_20_2012	504.96	571.51	561.88	566.25	568.12	573.57	560.64(-4.46%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-34	80	-39	-17	0.14	72%	0.16	1.8	2.69%	0	-0.6	47	0
15	Mar_19_2012	504.17	572.74	559.81	568.27	567.06	576.14	586.8(1.94%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	241	110	288	99	0.18	80%	0.06	14.7	2.96%	0	0.7	46	0

16	Mar_16_2012	503.88	571.94	557.28	560.89	561.94	562.67	575.63(3.72%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	101	10	131	11	0.22	80%	0.06	14.3	3.03%	0	0.2	42	0
17	Mar_15_2012	503.59	571.51	556.61	557.08	556.96	557.99	555(0.33%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-72	10	-67	-86	0.22	78%	0.13	13.1	3.02%	0	-0.9	35	0
18	Mar_14_2012	502.92	571.25	560	557.54	558.25	561.21	553.2(-3.07%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.2	72	40	102	-20	0.13	63%	0.19	12.7	3.03%	0	-0.9	37	0
19	Mar_13_2012	501.95	571.18	562.17	556.6	556.84	555.93	570.7(3.78%)	RB	SmallLong	20	0.7	33	-10	58	-41	0.19	68%	0.17	9.9	3.2%	0	-0	45	0
20	Mar_12_2012	501.12	569.91	564.24	549.96	552.55	555.29	549.9(-1.2%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0	-27	50	-10	-78	0.12	65%	0.16	0.3	3.19%	0	-0.9	39	0

21	Mar_9_2012	500.31	569.23	569.08	553.08	549.08	557.76	556.6(-0.13%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.2	79	90	110	-16	0.13	65%	0.23	4.8	3.32%	0	-0.6	47	0
22	Mar_8_2012	499.18	569	573.79	556.3	549.71	549.82	557.3(1.6%)	N/A	N/A	0	0	58	-30	81	-11	0.11	54%	0.24	18.5	3.41%	0	-0.5	49	0
23	Mar_7_2012	497.98	568.73	577.86	563.28	555.39	540.41	548.5(2.05%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-195	-230	-224	-107	0.18	54%	0.2	37.9	3.57%	0	-0.9	55	0
24	Mar_6_2012	496.98	569.19	582.08	568.7	566.1	549.6	537.5(-4.95%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.4	-347	-220	-409	-162	0.18	54%	0.25	59.5	3.57%	0	-1.4	51	0
25	Mar_5_2012	495.72	569.86	587.39	580.32	578.83	570.36	565.5(-1.26%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-210	-110	-256	-70	0.09	60%		86.3	3.51%	0	-0.2	62	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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