Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Feb. 9, 2012

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $548.2600 (-0.04%) ($536.6000 - $555.8000) on Thu. Feb. 9, 2012.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   4.6% (three month average)
RSI   62
Latest Price   $548.2600(-0.04%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX advances 1.8% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX advances 3.1% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
OIH(89%)    XOP(88%)    IWM(67%)    SPY(66%)    USO(62%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -2.3% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-27%)    SHY(-5%)    IGOV(-2%)    TIP(5%)    GLD(7%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -2.3% (StdDev 4.6%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -0.9%

5 Day Moving Average   $544.45(0.7%)
10 Day Moving Average   $522.13(5%)
20 Day Moving Average   $512.86(6.9%)
To recent high   -1%
To recent low   49.4%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.02%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.02% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 4.66% (three month std-dev: 4.6%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 8 Average positive next day return: 1.73%(50%) Average negative next day return: -1.58%(50%) Sample size 8 Average positive next three day return: 11.49%(38%) Average negative next three day return: -3.73%(63%) Sample size 8 Average positive next weekly return: 10.32%(63%) Average negative next weekly return: -4.15%(38%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20120309

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Feb_9_2012	457.31	512.86	522.13	544.45	544.24	550.37	548.26(-0.04%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	73	80	74	69	0.22	58%	0.36	53.2	4.6%	0	1.5	62	0
2	Feb_8_2012	455.67	509.88	518.12	534.8	537.34	548.38	548.5(-0.99%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.6	175	160	198	105	0.24	58%	0.25	40.4	4.89%	0	1.7	63	0
3	Feb_7_2012	454.53	507.73	516.01	523.72	523.56	538.11	554(1.71%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.5	179	190	205	100	0.25	58%	0.24	30.4	4.91%	0	2.2	66	0
4	Feb_6_2012	453.42	504.74	511.71	510.24	511.39	526.31	544.7(3.4%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.9	204	210	238	103	0.18	58%	0.18	22	4.92%	0	2.2	70	0
5	Feb_3_2012	452.61	501.92	508.67	501.08	502.44	509.01	526.8(5.36%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.7	151	100	176	76	0.24	58%	0.13	15.9	4.9%	0	1.6	70	0

6	Feb_2_2012	452.01	500.47	506.67	497.08	495.13	496.48	500(1.4%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.2	-5	10	-8	4	0.15	55%	0.13	23.3	4.94%	0	-0	61	0
7	Feb_1_2012	451.43	500.87	507.52	499.18	497.24	495.86	493.1(1.34%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.4	-21	-30	-29	2	0.22	49%	0.15	36	5.04%	0	-0.5	53	0
8	Jan_31_2012	450.75	501.46	508.66	507.12	504.6	493.78	486.6(-2.47%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.4	-67	-170	-85	-12	0.3	43%	0.15	60.6	5.2%	0	-1	43	0
9	Jan_30_2012	450.09	500.81	508.65	512.92	510.49	498.61	498.9(-1.56%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-148	-180	-182	-47	0.28	43%	0.19	73.4	5.45%	0	-0.1	51	0
10	Jan_27_2012	449.25	499.5	506.41	516.96	515.02	515.43	506.8(-0.72%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-61	-10	-79	-5	0.23	49%	0.1	78.1	5.45%	0	0.5	56	0

11	Jan_26_2012	448.79	497.12	503.79	517.38	517.67	522.37	510.5(-4.19%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.4	86	70	94	60	0.38	49%	0.07	78.5	5.65%	0	0.8	53	0
12	Jan_25_2012	448.47	495.69	501.83	516.82	513.07	514.6	532.8(3.34%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	34	-0	34	33	0.49	49%	0.24	91.9	5.68%	0	1.9	56	0
13	Jan_24_2012	447.41	492.87	499.09	510.68	510.19	512.98	515.6(-0.67%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	41	40	44	31	0.18	49%	0.16	111.1	5.72%	0	1.3	53	0
14	Jan_23_2012	446.7	490.54	497.2	503.78	505.09	511.54	519.1(2%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	74	100	84	44	0.3	49%	0.17	121.9	5.74%	0	1.6	66	0
15	Jan_20_2012	445.95	487.19	494.25	494.3	497.2	507.4	508.9(0.24%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	113	160	132	57	0.22	49%	0.06	129	5.77%	0	1.3	64	0

16	Jan_19_2012	445.7	483.71	493.17	488.12	487.15	498.65	507.7(1.12%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	119	160	138	61	0.24	49%	0.02	118.8	5.77%	0	1.5	68	0
17	Jan_18_2012	445.59	478.23	492.97	484.72	480.56	487	502.1(4.36%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	77	70	88	42	0.37	52%	0.03	90.6	5.78%	0	1.4	56	0
18	Jan_17_2012	445.45	473.87	492.99	486.34	482.27	475.66	481.1(1.99%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.3	-21	-120	-29	2	0.31	52%	0.01	64.9	5.85%	0	0.4	52	0
19	Jan_13_2012	445.42	470.11	492.13	489.88	489.94	474.13	471.7(-1.32%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-134	-230	-163	-48	0.37	56%	0.12	36.9	6%	0	0.1	53	0
20	Jan_12_2012	444.89	467.03	492.35	493.9	497.48	488.88	478(-2.59%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-134	-100	-165	-40	0.33	56%	0.06	24.5	5.99%	0	0.3	61	0

21	Jan_11_2012	444.61	465.18	490.65	498.4	497.48	505.75	490.7(-3.82%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	5	80	-5	34	0.3	56%	0.11	18.8	5.98%	0	0.7	68	0
22	Jan_10_2012	444.12	463.06	489.85	502.06	501.78	506.09	510.2(2.29%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	88	60	86	95	0.23	60%	0.28	15.6	5.96%	0	1.2	81	0
23	Jan_9_2012	442.89	461.31	486.58	500.9	498.68	497.81	498.8(1.42%)	UT	OpenLong	75	-0.1	18	-30	-0	73	0.22	60%	0.23	15.5	6.17%	0	1	72	0
24	Jan_6_2012	441.86	458.86	483.64	494.84	500.05	497.48	491.8(-1.74%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	39	-0	22	90	0.24	60%	0.16	7	6.2%	0	0.9	73	0
25	Jan_5_2012	441.15	458.53	479.82	490.3	492.63	499.55	500.5(-1.67%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	41	110	22	97	0.48	63%		3.6	6.21%	0	1.2	73	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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