Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

^ ERX: Intraday Hourly Forecast Similar Waves GapOpen Research Timing Gains Losses Strategies Practice

Tue. Dec. 27, 2011

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $482.1000 (0.65%) ($474.1000 - $488.0000) on Tue. Dec. 27, 2011.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   6.67% (three month average)
RSI   46
Latest Price   $482.1000(0.65%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX advances 4.1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX declines -0.6% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
OIH(89%)    XOP(88%)    IWM(67%)    SPY(66%)    USO(62%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -3.335% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-27%)    SHY(-5%)    IGOV(-2%)    TIP(5%)    GLD(7%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -3.335% (StdDev 6.67%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 1.7%

5 Day Moving Average   $463.7(3.97%)
10 Day Moving Average   $437.93(10.09%)
20 Day Moving Average   $455.94(5.74%)
To recent high   -13.7%
To recent low   71.2%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.04%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.04% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 7.67% (three month std-dev: 6.67%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 1 Average positive next day return: 1.69%(100%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 1 Average positive next three day return: 3.38%(100%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 1 Average positive next weekly return: 0.74%(100%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20120127

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Dec_27_2011	441.12	455.94	437.93	463.7	465.61	477.43	482.1(0.65%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	111	190	132	48	0.17	54%	-0.02	46.9	6.67%	0	0.7	46	0
2	Dec_23_2011	441.19	452.26	434.03	445.58	452.25	469.52	479(2.07%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	167	310	206	48	0.16	56%	-0.13	23.5	6.75%	0	0.7	46	0
3	Dec_22_2011	441.78	446.95	433.42	431.96	434.18	453.8	469.3(3.92%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	165	330	209	34	0.26	52%	-0.47	4	6.76%	0	0.6	48	0
4	Dec_21_2011	443.88	442.54	431.21	417.94	420.62	434.98	451.6(3.46%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	143	260	188	9	0.37	49%	-0.54	-16.7	7.11%	0	0.2	45	0
5	Dec_20_2011	446.28	440.64	434.52	408.32	411.74	414.55	436.5(11.49%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.7	41	70	70	-47	0.39	49%	-0.7	-32	7.24%	0	-0.1	41	0

6	Dec_19_2011	449.43	440.09	440.49	409.02	408.6	406.26	391.5(-4.72%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-83	-40	-79	-96	0.3	46%	-0.81	-39.9	7.1%	0	-1.1	49	0
7	Dec_16_2011	453.09	443.11	451.48	420.72	421.03	408.94	410.9(2.93%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-70	-200	-70	-68	0.37	46%	-0.81	-42.2	7.1%	0	-0.8	56	0
8	Dec_15_2011	456.79	445.35	459.01	435.22	431.97	410.94	399.2(-1.07%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-199	-360	-232	-100	0.42	46%	-0.87	-38.7	7.09%	0	-1.1	62	0
9	Dec_14_2011	460.78	449.76	468.07	446.08	448.31	433.13	403.5(-8.3%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-171	-220	-208	-61	0.54	46%	-0.95	-31.3	7.12%	0	-1.1	60	0
10	Dec_13_2011	465.19	454.88	477.51	464	462.04	453	440(-2.22%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.6	-92	-150	-125	6	0.37	48%	-0.89	-23.5	7.06%	0	-0.4	58	0

11	Dec_12_2011	469.35	458.06	477	476.58	472.29	463.49	450(-6.91%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.6	-77	-160	-112	28	0.33	48%	-0.88	-16.5	7.05%	0	-0.2	57	0
12	Dec_9_2011	473.54	461.48	473.63	486.76	484.64	471.08	483.4(6.59%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.1	-69	-210	-105	38	0.36	46%	-0.78	-8.1	6.99%	0	0.5	57	0
13	Dec_8_2011	477.28	461.87	462.89	486.88	492.34	481.09	453.5(-8.03%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.7	-112	-130	-151	6	0.46	46%	-0.74	-9.3	7.06%	0	-0.2	52	0
14	Dec_7_2011	480.84	462.89	456.09	493.12	498.41	498.21	493.1(-1.95%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0	-14	30	-33	43	0.35	51%	-0.67	-5.8	7%	0	0.7	51	0
15	Dec_6_2011	484.06	464.79	447.84	492.92	497.26	503.59	502.9(0.4%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	68	120	68	66	0.21	51%	-0.56	4	7.12%	0	0.8	48	0

16	Dec_5_2011	486.79	464.79	439.39	477.34	491.7	498.61	500.9(3.49%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	134	190	155	69	0.32	51%	-0.59	-1.6	7.14%	0	0.7	48	0
17	Dec_2_2011	489.66	465.17	433.13	458.36	470.35	490.94	484(-0.14%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.5	120	380	149	34	0.33	49%	-0.5	-16.5	7.18%	0	0.4	43	0
18	Dec_1_2011	492.1	466.12	429.2	434.94	448.46	484.8	484.7(-1.5%)	UD	OpenLong	75	1	306	660	376	94	0.26	49%	-0.52	-32	7.26%	0	0.4	48	0
19	Nov_30_2011	494.65	465.53	428.13	413.24	419.37	449.76	492.1(15.79%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.6	296	550	371	72	0.51	49%	-0.47	-44.8	7.21%	0	0.5	53	0
20	Nov_29_2011	496.98	462.84	428.04	397.08	395.69	412.13	425(4.68%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.6	119	280	170	-33	0.4	47%	-0.61	-55	6.94%	0	-0.8	34	0

21	Nov_28_2011	500.04	465.95	435.59	396.72	395	388.98	406(10.66%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.2	15	-120	47	-83	0.39	47%	-0.75	-57	7.01%	0	-1.2	35	0
22	Nov_25_2011	503.8	473.45	446.98	404.92	398.8	379.25	366.9(-2.47%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-242	-390	-257	-197	0.2	43%	-1.35	-45	6.91%	0	-2.1	29	0
23	Nov_23_2011	510.7	482.77	460.59	422.18	419.07	401.02	376.2(-8.53%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-215	-320	-229	-172	0.43	47%	-0.76	-32.1	6.9%	0	-2.3	30	0
24	Nov_22_2011	514.62	489.09	471.33	444.24	439.63	418.35	411.3(-2.81%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-212	-370	-231	-153	0.26	48%	-0.2	-17.5	7.02%	0	-2	43	0
25	Nov_21_2011	515.67	492.17	484.56	463.3	459.73	437.11	423.2(-5.32%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-237	-370	-270	-136	0.38	48%		-3.8	7.01%	0	-2	53	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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