Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Tue. Nov. 29, 2011

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $425.0000 (4.68%) ($406.6000 - $434.7000) on Tue. Nov. 29, 2011.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   6.94% (three month average)
RSI   34
Latest Price   $425.0000(4.68%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX advances 0.1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX declines -11.7% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
OIH(89%)    XOP(88%)    IWM(67%)    SPY(67%)    USO(62%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -3.47% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-28%)    SHY(-5%)    IGOV(-1%)    TIP(4%)    GLD(8%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -3.47% (StdDev 6.94%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 3.7%

Resistance Level   $462.84
5 Day Moving Average   $397.08(7.03%)
10 Day Moving Average   $428.04(-0.71%)
20 Day Moving Average   $462.84(-8.18%)
To recent high   -23.9%
To recent low   50.9%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.05%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.05% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 10.84% (three month std-dev: 6.94%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20111229

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Nov_29_2011	496.98	462.84	428.04	397.08	395.69	412.13	425(4.68%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.6	119	280	170	-33	0.4	47%	-0.61	-55	6.94%	0	-0.8	34	0
2	Nov_28_2011	500.04	465.95	435.59	396.72	395	388.98	406(10.66%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.2	15	-120	47	-83	0.39	47%	-0.75	-57	7.01%	0	-1.2	35	0
3	Nov_25_2011	503.8	473.45	446.98	404.92	398.8	379.25	366.9(-2.47%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-242	-390	-257	-197	0.2	43%	-1.35	-45	6.91%	0	-2.1	29	0
4	Nov_23_2011	510.7	482.77	460.59	422.18	419.07	401.02	376.2(-8.53%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-215	-320	-229	-172	0.43	47%	-0.76	-32.1	6.9%	0	-2.3	30	0
5	Nov_22_2011	514.62	489.09	471.33	444.24	439.63	418.35	411.3(-2.81%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-212	-370	-231	-153	0.26	48%	-0.2	-17.5	7.02%	0	-2	43	0

6	Nov_21_2011	515.67	492.17	484.56	463.3	459.73	437.11	423.2(-5.32%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-237	-370	-270	-136	0.38	48%	-0.65	-3.8	7.01%	0	-2	53	0
7	Nov_18_2011	519.04	495.96	494.73	480.16	480.88	460.91	447(-1.37%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-189	-290	-220	-95	0.28	45%	-0.56	21.4	7.02%	0	-1.5	48	0
8	Nov_17_2011	521.95	497.61	501.41	495.66	494.65	482.34	453.2(-6.84%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.3	-157	-180	-185	-74	0.39	45%	-0.49	40.8	7.33%	0	-1.4	40	0
9	Nov_16_2011	524.5	497.91	507.57	504.54	507.84	500.85	486.5(-3.97%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-31	-80	-37	-12	0.34	45%	-0.37	56.5	7.27%	0	-0.3	44	0
10	Nov_15_2011	526.44	496.03	507.06	502.06	507.05	506.97	506.6(-0.18%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-35	30	-41	-18	0.29	47%	-0.23	59.4	7.29%	0	0.3	54	0

11	Nov_14_2011	527.67	493.48	500.88	509.34	502.96	514.84	507.5(-3.24%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	23	130	26	12	0.2	47%	-0.21	68.7	7.39%	0	0.4	58	0
12	Nov_11_2011	528.8	489.22	498.64	511.98	508.99	507.13	524.5(5.41%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	101	-40	118	51	0.35	50%	-0.25	73.3	7.38%	0	0.9	56	0
13	Nov_10_2011	530.12	484.94	501.11	508.92	507.1	491.08	497.6(4.96%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-115	-230	-139	-42	0.4	48%	-0.34	77.4	7.57%	0	0.3	56	0
14	Nov_9_2011	531.93	480.16	505.74	511.3	509.02	510.86	474.1(-12.69%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-69	10	-90	-6	0.39	51%	-0.4	78.9	7.67%	0	-0.1	57	0
15	Nov_8_2011	534.06	476.73	507.93	511.6	511.46	523.13	543(4.28%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	160	160	177	109	0.37	49%	-0.2	80.6	7.67%	0	1.4	65	0

16	Nov_7_2011	535.11	469.05	499.73	490.6	495.69	507.18	520.7(2.26%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	105	190	118	67	0.29	49%	-0.23	76.2	8.26%	0	1	61	0
17	Nov_4_2011	536.34	462.45	496.56	483.36	476.63	499.79	509.2(-0.06%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.5	77	300	83	58	0.27	46%	-0.26	76.4	8.26%	0	0.9	65	0
18	Nov_3_2011	537.73	454.36	492.9	493.2	478.52	484.21	509.52(7.13%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	123	-10	134	91	0.33	46%	-0.25	82.4	8.65%	0	1	61	0
19	Nov_2_2011	539.08	446.78	487.08	500.94	490.17	453.47	475.6(8.58%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-135	-590	-175	-16	0.3	44%	-0.39	85.4	8.61%	0	0.5	63	0
20	Nov_1_2011	541.21	440.22	484.28	503.94	507.85	472.83	438(-9.6%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-285	-460	-354	-76	0.35	44%	-0.4	81.3	8.59%	0	-0	60	0

21	Oct_31_2011	543.36	434.28	486.59	508.46	518.45	526.87	484.5(-13.23%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.3	-34	170	-64	56	0.32	46%	-0.36	71.9	8.52%	0	0.7	67	0
22	Oct_28_2011	545.34	424.6	480.42	509.7	509.73	542.86	558.4(1.86%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.7	244	460	259	197	0.29	48%	-0.3	66.5	8.37%	0	1.8	79	0
23	Oct_27_2011	546.96	412.15	467.8	492.34	494.59	510.03	548.2(11.74%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.8	258	230	275	206	0.36	47%	-0.27	64.4	8.37%	0	2	83	0
24	Oct_26_2011	548.43	401.32	452.12	472.5	476.4	476.6	490.6(6.51%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	43	30	24	98	0.28	45%	-0.36	62.7	8.26%	0	1.4	75	0
25	Oct_25_2011	550.4	393.04	442.75	462.76	467.05	479.16	460.6(-6.13%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	59	210	42	110	0.28	45%		56.4	8.21%	0	1.1	75	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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