Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

^ ERX: Intraday Hourly Forecast Similar Waves GapOpen Research Timing Gains Losses Strategies Practice

Thu. Nov. 3, 2011

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $509.5200 (7.13%) ($475.4000 - $513.5000) on Thu. Nov. 3, 2011.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   8.65% (three month average)
RSI   61
Latest Price   $509.5200(7.13%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX declines -1.6% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX advances 5.4% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
OIH(89%)    XOP(88%)    IWM(67%)    SPY(67%)    USO(62%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -4.325% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-29%)    SHY(-6%)    IGOV(0%)    TIP(4%)    LQD(9%)

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -4.325% (StdDev 8.65%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 2.9%

5 Day Moving Average   $493.2(3.31%)
10 Day Moving Average   $492.9(3.37%)
20 Day Moving Average   $454.36(12.14%)
To recent high   -24.8%
To recent low   80.9%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.07%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.07% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 12.42% (three month std-dev: 8.65%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 2 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: -4.4%(100%) Sample size 2 Average positive next three day return: 17%(50%) Average negative next three day return: -11.42%(50%) Sample size 2 Average positive next weekly return: 24.78%(50%) Average negative next weekly return: -15.16%(50%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20111203

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Nov_3_2011	537.73	454.36	492.9	493.2	478.52	484.21	509.52(7.13%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	123	-10	134	91	0.33	46%	-0.25	82.4	8.65%	0	1	61	0
2	Nov_2_2011	539.08	446.78	487.08	500.94	490.17	453.47	475.6(8.58%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-135	-590	-175	-16	0.3	44%	-0.39	85.4	8.61%	0	0.5	63	0
3	Nov_1_2011	541.21	440.22	484.28	503.94	507.85	472.83	438(-9.6%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-285	-460	-354	-76	0.35	44%	-0.4	81.3	8.59%	0	-0	60	0
4	Oct_31_2011	543.36	434.28	486.59	508.46	518.45	526.87	484.5(-13.23%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.3	-34	170	-64	56	0.32	46%	-0.36	71.9	8.52%	0	0.7	67	0
5	Oct_28_2011	545.34	424.6	480.42	509.7	509.73	542.86	558.4(1.86%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.7	244	460	259	197	0.29	48%	-0.3	66.5	8.37%	0	1.8	79	0

6	Oct_27_2011	546.96	412.15	467.8	492.34	494.59	510.03	548.2(11.74%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.8	258	230	275	206	0.36	47%	-0.27	64.4	8.37%	0	2	83	0
7	Oct_26_2011	548.43	401.32	452.12	472.5	476.4	476.6	490.6(6.51%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	43	30	24	98	0.28	45%	-0.36	62.7	8.26%	0	1.4	75	0
8	Oct_25_2011	550.4	393.04	442.75	462.76	467.05	479.16	460.6(-6.13%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	59	210	42	110	0.28	45%	-0.42	56.4	8.21%	0	1.1	75	0
9	Oct_24_2011	552.71	387.89	435.81	461.14	460.75	476.2	490.7(4.05%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.5	185	230	185	186	0.34	45%	-0.44	51.2	8.18%	0	1.8	84	0
10	Oct_21_2011	555.16	380.29	425.17	446.2	447.89	454.95	471.6(5.03%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.5	117	120	102	162	0.36	46%	-0.48	37	8.17%	0	1.7	86	0

11	Oct_20_2011	557.81	372.16	412.3	439.47	437.27	445.31	449(1.61%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	72	110	48	144	0.59	46%	-0.52	21.2	8.18%	0	1.5	73	0
12	Oct_19_2011	560.73	365.61	402.94	428.53	433.3	440.84	441.9(-2.34%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	142	160	132	173	0.53	47%	-0.63	1.7	8.17%	0	1.6	65	0
13	Oct_18_2011	564.26	362.36	392.57	419.43	418.17	429.23	452.5(8.77%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	80	180	60	139	0.45	47%	-0.2	-9	8.2%	0	1.9	68	0
14	Oct_17_2011	565.4	360.67	377.96	406.59	409.78	425.77	416(-5.01%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	157	300	157	156	0.36	45%	-0.63	-15.8	8.12%	0	1.2	58	0
15	Oct_14_2011	569	361.41	364.96	400.69	399.32	407.11	437.96(11.07%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	140	130	142	132	0.36	47%	-0.58	-15.9	8.17%	0	1.5	63	0

16	Oct_13_2011	572.31	361.85	352.16	381.2	386.23	393.79	394.3(-0.53%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	61	180	56	76	0.44	45%	-0.63	-21.3	8.04%	0	0.6	64	0
17	Oct_12_2011	575.93	364.82	346.38	373.24	376.36	391.53	396.4(2.09%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	132	310	141	106	0.42	45%	-0.57	-24.1	8.05%	0	0.6	62	0
18	Oct_11_2011	579.22	366.6	339.11	361.34	362.11	378.66	388.3(0.47%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	158	330	179	94	0.37	44%	-0.53	-32	8.04%	0	0.4	50	0
19	Oct_10_2011	582.32	368.1	335.73	344.78	346.56	361.2	386.5(13.51%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	164	310	197	66	0.51	44%	-0.59	-39.4	8.08%	0	0.3	45	0
20	Oct_7_2011	585.77	369.54	331.05	323.8	323.79	345.55	340.5(-3.95%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.3	104	470	139	-2	0.57	42%	-0.67	-49.8	7.88%	0	-0.5	38	0

21	Oct_6_2011	589.73	373.36	328.39	318.56	311.1	331.93	354.5(5.22%)	RB	SmallLong	20	0.6	158	400	212	-6	0.63	42%	-0.64	-54.6	7.89%	0	-0.3	37	0
22	Oct_5_2011	593.52	378.42	324.91	315.86	305.83	302.03	336.9(10.28%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.3	18	-180	56	-97	0.68	42%	-0.59	-55.4	7.86%	0	-0.7	35	0
23	Oct_4_2011	597.07	385.27	329.34	314.16	311.06	290.28	305.5(8.49%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-201	-500	-198	-211	0.96	40%	-0.65	-57.6	7.74%	0	-1.3	33	0
24	Oct_3_2011	600.97	391.79	341.78	325.68	327.48	309.63	281.6(-10.4%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-221	-360	-225	-209	0.63	38%	-0.71	-58.4	7.7%	0	-1.8	32	0
25	Sep_30_2011	605.28	400.44	358	338.77	345.67	331.85	314.3(-7.83%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-108	-220	-97	-141	0.53	41%		-58.5	7.63%	0	-1.5	36	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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