Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

^ ERX: Intraday Hourly Forecast Similar Waves GapOpen Research Timing Gains Losses Strategies Practice

Wed. May. 11, 2011

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $714.7000 (-8.51%) ($700.5300 - $768.9000) on Wed. May. 11, 2011.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   4.14% (three month average)
RSI   35
Latest Price   $714.7000(-8.51%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX declines -1.6% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX declines -7.6% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
OIH(90%)    XOP(88%)    IWM(70%)    SPY(69%)    EEM(63%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -2.07% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-32%)    SHY(-6%)    TIP(1%)    IGOV(3%)    LQD(7%)

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -2.07% (StdDev 4.14%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -7%

Resistance Level   $815.38
5 Day Moving Average   $745.44(-4.12%)
10 Day Moving Average   $797.37(-10.37%)
20 Day Moving Average   $815.38(-12.35%)
To recent high   -22.6%
To recent low   0.9%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.02%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.02% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 7.23% (three month std-dev: 4.14%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 2 Average positive next day return: 3.9%(50%) Average negative next day return: -0.61%(50%) Sample size 2 Average positive next three day return: 4.33%(100%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 2 Average positive next weekly return: 9.01%(100%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20110611

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	May_11_2011	759.05	815.38	797.37	745.44	754.24	755.8	714.7(-8.51%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-142	50	-134	-164	0.51	44%	0.22	-48.7	4.14%	0	-1.7	35	0
2	May_10_2011	757.42	819.08	814.57	757.9	752.89	767.08	781.2(1.43%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.4	101	110	146	-33	0.33	47%	0.33	-57.6	3.99%	0	-0.7	50	0
3	May_9_2011	754.93	822.5	824.73	765.5	756.84	752.68	770.2(4.93%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-3	-70	17	-62	0.35	46%	0.33	-59.5	4%	0	-1	53	0
4	May_6_2011	752.46	828.86	833.99	788.18	775.97	738.71	734(0.95%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-1	-526	-380	-606	-285	0.56	44%	0.28	-48.9	3.92%	0	-1.7	43	0
5	May_5_2011	750.35	836.81	848.61	826.1	814.9	761.01	727.1(-6.42%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.9	-849	-500	-1001	-393	0.56	44%	0.28	-34.1	3.95%	0	-2.1	46	0

6	May_4_2011	748.22	845.16	862.89	856.68	857.26	813.23	777(-5.15%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.7	-742	-360	-888	-303	0.38	46%	0.34	-22.5	3.9%	0	-1.4	54	0
7	May_3_2011	745.68	852.11	867.05	878.18	878.49	868.79	819.2(-7.29%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.3	-413	-80	-510	-121	0.31	48%	0.39	-6.9	3.84%	0	-0.7	60	0
8	May_2_2011	742.76	856.39	864.38	891.34	888.59	901.29	883.6(-4.33%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	222	90	234	184	0.16	51%	0.5	5.9	3.72%	0	0.6	55	0
9	Apr_29_2011	739.05	857.08	857.74	886.36	881.82	888.2	923.6(4.95%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	229	40	249	170	0.15	58%	0.57	7.6	3.78%	0	1.4	51	0
10	Apr_28_2011	734.86	855.19	844.57	875.86	871.79	875.88	880(-0.51%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	34	20	27	55	0.21	57%	0.52	8	3.77%	0	0.5	48	0

11	Apr_27_2011	731.09	855.93	834.45	870.94	869.47	875.44	884.5(-0.06%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	152	40	173	90	0.2	57%	0.52	12.3	3.77%	0	0.6	49	0
12	Apr_26_2011	727.32	855.35	823.19	854.42	861.94	867.7	885(3.06%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	193	70	233	72	0.15	59%	0.52	8.1	3.78%	0	0.6	45	0
13	Apr_25_2011	723.59	853.58	818.45	833.04	841.35	863.5	858.7(-1.42%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.5	215	210	269	54	0.11	59%	0.79	-1.8	3.85%	0	0.1	43	0
14	Apr_21_2011	717.93	853.4	821.2	824.34	819.77	856.19	871.1(1.84%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	504	290	612	180	0.13	59%	0.55	1.7	3.82%	0	0.4	44	0
15	Apr_20_2011	714.02	851.49	821.64	808.92	804.82	819.2	855.4(6.67%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	501	110	613	163	0.19	59%	0.58	-1.6	3.81%	0	0.1	44	0

16	Apr_19_2011	709.89	850.1	823.74	793.22	788.07	783.35	801.9(3.06%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-89	-60	-74	-133	0.15	55%	0.5	0.2	3.75%	0	-1	34	0
17	Apr_18_2011	706.36	851.49	834.5	787.3	785.97	790.45	778.1(-4.55%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-91	30	-76	-134	0.17	55%	0.48	3.9	3.76%	0	-1.6	35	0
18	Apr_15_2011	703	854.47	847.41	801.3	790.36	792.8	815.2(2.67%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-19	-20	3	-83	0.19	57%	0.16	18.4	3.72%	0	-0.8	46	0
19	Apr_14_2011	701.85	852.65	856.33	818.12	807.45	781.49	794(2.2%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-307	-260	-343	-198	0.16	58%	0.49	28.5	3.73%	0	-1.2	41	0
20	Apr_13_2011	698.45	852.24	867.11	836.96	837.85	787.92	776.9(0.6%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-709	-410	-825	-362	0.18	58%	0.5	39.3	3.74%	0	-1.3	44	0

21	Apr_12_2011	694.99	850	880.46	858.9	863.19	833.41	772.3(-8.94%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.5	-823	-230	-969	-385	0.34	60%	0.45	41.5	3.75%	0	-1.3	45	0
22	Apr_11_2011	691.85	849.68	892.44	887.52	891.52	887.78	848.1(-5.69%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-123	-20	-158	-19	0.14	66%	0.56	49.9	3.57%	0	-0	62	0
23	Apr_8_2011	687.97	845.85	893.8	899.28	900.86	892.96	899.3(1.25%)	N/A	N/A	0	0	-28	-60	-52	43	0.16	69%	0.66	47.9	3.49%	0	0.9	75	0
24	Apr_7_2011	683.46	838.67	889.74	900.54	902.95	895.26	888.2(0.18%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-193	-50	-252	-17	0.15	69%	0.69	39.1	3.52%	0	0.7	83	0
25	Apr_6_2011	678.78	830.43	884.71	902.46	909.82	908.76	886.6(-3.15%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.2	-4	20	-34	87	0.19	69%		30.1	3.52%	0	0.9	80	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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