Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. Mar. 21, 2011

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $826.3000 (8.06%) ($794.5000 - $827.2000) on Mon. Mar. 21, 2011.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   3.53% (three month average)
RSI   50
Latest Price   $826.3000(8.06%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX advances 1.7% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX declines -4.8% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
OIH(90%)    XOP(88%)    IWM(70%)    SPY(69%)    EEM(63%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -1.765% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-32%)    SHY(-7%)    TIP(1%)    IGOV(3%)    LQD(7%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.765% (StdDev 3.53%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 3.5%

1 - 5 Day Possible Target   $756.73(-8.42%)
5 Day Moving Average   $763.3(8.25%)
10 Day Moving Average   $767.47(7.67%)
20 Day Moving Average   $802.63(2.95%)
To recent high   -5%
To recent low   48.4%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.01%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.01% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 5.95% (three month std-dev: 3.53%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20110421

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Mar_21_2011	625.22	802.63	767.47	763.3	769.59	795.98	826.3(8.06%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	475	260	583	152	0.23	70%	0.74	-22.9	3.53%	0	0.5	50	0
2	Mar_18_2011	620.65	802.55	767.27	750.58	747.59	768.71	764.7(-0.74%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	352	190	445	72	0.2	68%	0.64	-22.4	3.39%	0	-0.8	39	0
3	Mar_17_2011	616.73	805.44	775.55	748.24	739.98	743.21	770.4(8.74%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	244	-0	319	20	0.3	68%	0.65	-17.1	3.41%	0	-0.7	42	0
4	Mar_16_2011	612.75	807.09	784.69	737.62	732.54	726.48	708.5(-5.1%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-208	-80	-210	-201	0.3	65%	0.54	-16.9	3.25%	0	-2.1	38	0
5	Mar_15_2011	609.47	810.9	797.7	756.94	736.44	736.75	746.6(-2.11%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-236	-80	-248	-200	0.3	68%	0.61	-4.1	3.17%	0	-1.6	38	0

6	Mar_14_2011	605.76	813.72	805.84	771.92	758.28	738.6	762.7(1.29%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-147	-230	-149	-141	0.24	68%	0.65	10.3	3.17%	0	-1.3	47	0
7	Mar_11_2011	601.87	813.45	816.11	787.04	776.82	736.13	753(4.98%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-850	-410	-983	-450	0.31	68%	0.65	20.8	3.16%	0	-1.5	43	0
8	Mar_10_2011	598.01	813.61	826.29	807.56	808.94	777.95	717.3(-10.91%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-2.2	-796	-260	-929	-398	0.4	66%	0.59	33.9	3.14%	0	-2.3	40	0
9	Mar_9_2011	594.53	814.98	837.77	838.1	837.86	817.51	805.1(-2%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-456	-170	-542	-198	0.16	76%	0.77	54	2.76%	0	-0.2	54	0
10	Mar_8_2011	590	812.63	842.8	843.8	849.86	839.93	821.5(-2%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-263	-60	-324	-81	0.14	76%	0.75	56	2.74%	0	0.2	61	0

11	Mar_7_2011	585.58	809.71	842.05	844.26	848.92	858.21	838.3(-2.02%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.1	-8	90	-25	44	0.17	76%	0.8	60.3	2.73%	0	0.6	58	0
12	Mar_4_2011	580.92	805.14	841.36	849.72	848.18	859.79	855.6(-1.66%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	340	90	374	236	0.15	76%	0.85	71.7	2.69%	0	1.1	67	0
13	Mar_3_2011	576.05	799.85	837.79	848.6	848.39	839.62	870(4.37%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	133	-70	125	158	0.17	76%	0.88	81.2	2.69%	0	1.6	69	0
14	Mar_2_2011	571.04	793.71	830.58	838.14	843.04	836.58	833.6(1.19%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-344	-40	-438	-61	0.2	76%	0.84	87.4	2.66%	0	0.9	68	0
15	Mar_1_2011	566.28	789.43	824.66	842	847.23	857.16	823.8(-4.83%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.4	185	100	180	200	0.23	78%	0.83	105	2.69%	0	0.8	62	0

16	Feb_28_2011	561.63	784.01	821.92	838.82	844.14	849.5	865.6(1.84%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	304	60	318	261	0.22	83%	0.92	107.2	2.73%	0	1.8	66	0
17	Feb_25_2011	556.52	773.82	809.97	831.68	836.13	837.29	850(3.95%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	42	30	13	130	0.15	83%	0.92	99.4	2.78%	0	1.6	66	0
18	Feb_24_2011	551.44	764.79	799.28	825.59	832.93	838.79	817.7(-4.13%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	156	80	149	177	0.29	83%	0.86	98	2.77%	0	1.1	62	0
19	Feb_23_2011	546.74	757.84	790.43	821.65	825.88	834.98	852.9(5.57%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	284	90	302	229	0.4	82%	0.95	97.2	2.74%	0	1.9	68	0
20	Feb_22_2011	541.59	746.91	779.79	804.85	812.85	827.06	807.9(-2.65%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	293	150	321	210	0.3	80%	1.29	82.9	2.81%	0	1.2	63	0

21	Feb_18_2011	534.69	738.72	774.72	801.95	800.2	816.78	829.9(1.26%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	444	140	495	292	0.19	82%	0.96	74.1	2.77%	0	1.6	74	0
22	Feb_17_2011	529.59	728.95	765.71	784.77	786.2	798.63	819.55(2.7%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	411	120	457	271	0.19	82%	0.95	66.8	2.84%	0	1.6	79	0
23	Feb_16_2011	524.59	719.25	758.29	769.18	769.33	783.63	798(3.78%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	319	130	349	227	0.22	76%	0.94	60.9	2.84%	0	1.4	75	0
24	Feb_15_2011	519.73	711.29	753.12	754.46	754.03	773.76	768.9(-3.09%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	400	180	446	261	0.19	75%	0.9	58.8	2.94%	0	1.1	70	0
25	Feb_14_2011	515.1	705.81	750.93	750.82	741.87	755.03	793.4(6.64%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.8	377	90	411	276	0.19	78%		65.4	2.91%	0	1.7	80	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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