Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. Feb. 14, 2011

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $793.4000 (6.64%) ($742.0000 - $796.7000) on Mon. Feb. 14, 2011.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   2.91% (three month average)
RSI   80
Latest Price   $793.4000(6.64%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX advances 0.9% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX advances 5.4% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
OIH(90%)    XOP(88%)    IWM(70%)    SPY(69%)    EEM(63%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -1.455% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-32%)    SHY(-7%)    TIP(0%)    IGOV(3%)    LQD(7%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.455% (StdDev 2.91%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 6.9%

5 Day Moving Average   $750.82(5.67%)
10 Day Moving Average   $750.93(5.66%)
20 Day Moving Average   $705.81(12.41%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   84.4%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.01%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.01% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 7.4% (three month std-dev: 2.91%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 9 Average positive next day return: 2.14%(44%) Average negative next day return: -2.05%(56%) Sample size 9 Average positive next three day return: 7.73%(33%) Average negative next three day return: -2.53%(67%) Sample size 9 Average positive next weekly return: 4.87%(56%) Average negative next weekly return: -9.3%(44%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20110314

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Feb_14_2011	515.1	705.81	750.93	750.82	741.87	755.03	793.4(6.64%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.8	377	90	411	276	0.19	78%	0.95	65.4	2.91%	0	1.7	80	0
2	Feb_11_2011	510.25	698.32	742.63	743.94	737.13	734.3	744(0.32%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0	73	-50	49	144	0.16	73%	0.9	72.3	2.89%	0	0.9	74	0
3	Feb_10_2011	505.72	692.59	734.92	743.88	741.69	728.71	741.6(2.37%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0	-174	-130	-244	37	0.18	74%	0.89	76.8	2.91%	0	1	74	0
4	Feb_9_2011	501.28	687.1	728.09	745.7	746.45	739.96	724.4(-3.5%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.4	-209	-60	-291	37	0.25	74%	0.85	82.9	2.93%	0	0.7	74	0
5	Feb_8_2011	497.06	681.51	723.79	750.94	749.94	754.66	750.7(-1.09%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	73	40	32	194	0.2	77%	0.91	86.8	2.88%	0	1.3	75	0

6	Feb_7_2011	492.59	673.21	712.53	750.5	749.74	752.94	759(2.06%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	221	30	207	263	0.16	77%	0.97	84.1	2.87%	0	1.6	69	0
7	Feb_4_2011	487.88	664.59	700.8	741.04	743.64	745.23	743.7(-0.93%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	162	30	141	223	0.18	80%	0.94	81.8	2.87%	0	1.5	69	0
8	Feb_3_2011	483.36	656.27	689.98	724.06	729.57	746.54	750.7(0.01%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	283	190	293	252	0.18	80%	0.95	72.7	3.02%	0	1.9	74	0
9	Feb_2_2011	478.8	648.03	677.34	707.46	709.12	742.06	750.6(0.28%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	620	330	698	387	0.21	80%	0.96	69.2	3.02%	0	2.2	73	0
10	Feb_1_2011	474.25	639.51	665.74	692.56	689.41	712.6	748.5(5.17%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	713	220	811	418	0.26	80%	0.96	69.6	3.04%	0	2.6	75	0

11	Jan_31_2011	469.75	631.56	656.04	669.42	670.21	676.19	711.7(8.03%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1.2	301	70	331	211	0.32	79%	0.9	71.3	2.99%	0	2.3	76	0
12	Jan_28_2011	465.56	624.96	649.08	655.24	655.23	666.23	658.8(-1.33%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	112	120	109	120	0.27	77%	0.81	71.2	2.86%	0	1.1	69	0
13	Jan_27_2011	461.83	621.19	646.08	650.42	648.66	664.24	667.7(-1.24%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.6	400	160	445	263	0.17	77%	0.84	70.4	2.85%	0	1.5	73	0
14	Jan_26_2011	457.98	616.76	642.35	642.08	640.56	644.23	676.1(6.84%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	280	30	304	206	0.2	77%	0.88	69.2	2.85%	0	2	70	0
15	Jan_25_2011	453.98	611.19	635.6	634.92	630.98	633.08	632.8(-1.25%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.1	-97	0	-138	28	0.21	75%	0.41	71.5	2.75%	0	0.8	65	0

16	Jan_24_2011	452.14	607.67	631.16	640.68	636.69	636.89	640.8(0.96%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0	105	-20	96	132	0.14	75%	0.79	79.3	2.74%	0	1.1	62	0
17	Jan_21_2011	448.6	603.95	626.2	642.16	641.13	628.89	634.7(1.39%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.3	-85	-140	-129	49	0.15	75%	0.8	89	2.74%	0	1.1	64	0
18	Jan_20_2011	445.03	600.33	620.89	640.82	640.36	636.49	626(-2.23%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-262	-40	-337	-36	0.28	76%	0.8	94.7	2.75%	0	0.9	63	0
19	Jan_19_2011	441.48	596.92	617.56	641.95	643.04	653.37	640.3(-3.22%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	236	120	246	207	0.22	70%	0.91	99.6	2.74%	0	1.5	68	0
20	Jan_18_2011	437.49	591.92	612.15	635.79	636.47	644.23	661.6(2.07%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.9	329	90	357	243	0.16	73%	1.36	96.8	2.87%	0	2.4	79	0

21	Jan_14_2011	431.61	585.25	605.33	620.07	623.2	632.71	648.2(3.22%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1	213	120	226	174	0.15	73%	0.96	83.9	2.85%	0	2.2	78	0
22	Jan_13_2011	427.52	579.23	598.62	608.08	609.68	628.72	628(-0.58%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.7	360	230	403	229	0.12	72%	0.9	79.2	2.83%	0	1.8	71	0
23	Jan_12_2011	423.7	573.86	593.92	598.1	597.78	613.69	631.65(3.63%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	456	180	520	264	0.16	72%	0.91	69.8	2.85%	0	2.1	74	0
24	Jan_11_2011	419.88	568.67	588.48	589.89	587.68	590.64	609.5(4.55%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	188	20	207	132	0.21	71%	0.84	69.3	2.83%	0	1.6	72	0
25	Jan_10_2011	416.4	564.92	584.17	585.25	583.33	581.87	583(-0.89%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.1	-61	-30	-87	16	0.13	69%		70.2	2.79%	0	0.8	72	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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