Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Wed. Jan. 26, 2011

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $676.1000 (6.84%) ($638.1000 - $680.9000) on Wed. Jan. 26, 2011.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   2.85% (three month average)
RSI   70
Latest Price   $676.1000(6.84%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX advances 1.1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX advances 4% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
OIH(90%)    XOP(88%)    IWM(70%)    SPY(69%)    EEM(63%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -1.425% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-32%)    SHY(-7%)    TIP(0%)    IGOV(3%)    LQD(7%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.425% (StdDev 2.85%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 5.8%

5 Day Moving Average   $642.08(5.3%)
10 Day Moving Average   $642.35(5.25%)
20 Day Moving Average   $616.76(9.62%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   76.6%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.01%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.01% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 4.8% (three month std-dev: 2.85%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 16 Average positive next day return: 1.35%(31%) Average negative next day return: -2.36%(69%) Sample size 16 Average positive next three day return: 3.7%(38%) Average negative next three day return: -4.79%(63%) Sample size 16 Average positive next weekly return: 5.09%(38%) Average negative next weekly return: -3.79%(63%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20110226

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jan_26_2011	457.98	616.76	642.35	642.08	640.56	644.23	676.1(6.84%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	280	30	304	206	0.2	77%	0.88	69.2	2.85%	0	2	70	0
2	Jan_25_2011	453.98	611.19	635.6	634.92	630.98	633.08	632.8(-1.25%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.1	-97	0	-138	28	0.21	75%	0.41	71.5	2.75%	0	0.8	65	0
3	Jan_24_2011	452.14	607.67	631.16	640.68	636.69	636.89	640.8(0.96%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0	105	-20	96	132	0.14	75%	0.79	79.3	2.74%	0	1.1	62	0
4	Jan_21_2011	448.6	603.95	626.2	642.16	641.13	628.89	634.7(1.39%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.3	-85	-140	-129	49	0.15	75%	0.8	89	2.74%	0	1.1	64	0
5	Jan_20_2011	445.03	600.33	620.89	640.82	640.36	636.49	626(-2.23%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-262	-40	-337	-36	0.28	76%	0.8	94.7	2.75%	0	0.9	63	0

6	Jan_19_2011	441.48	596.92	617.56	641.95	643.04	653.37	640.3(-3.22%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	236	120	246	207	0.22	70%	0.91	99.6	2.74%	0	1.5	68	0
7	Jan_18_2011	437.49	591.92	612.15	635.79	636.47	644.23	661.6(2.07%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.9	329	90	357	243	0.16	73%	1.36	96.8	2.87%	0	2.4	79	0
8	Jan_14_2011	431.61	585.25	605.33	620.07	623.2	632.71	648.2(3.22%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1	213	120	226	174	0.15	73%	0.96	83.9	2.85%	0	2.2	78	0
9	Jan_13_2011	427.52	579.23	598.62	608.08	609.68	628.72	628(-0.58%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.7	360	230	403	229	0.12	72%	0.9	79.2	2.83%	0	1.8	71	0
10	Jan_12_2011	423.7	573.86	593.92	598.1	597.78	613.69	631.65(3.63%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	456	180	520	264	0.16	72%	0.91	69.8	2.85%	0	2.1	74	0

11	Jan_11_2011	419.88	568.67	588.48	589.89	587.68	590.64	609.5(4.55%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	188	20	207	132	0.21	71%	0.84	69.3	2.83%	0	1.6	72	0
12	Jan_10_2011	416.4	564.92	584.17	585.25	583.33	581.87	583(-0.89%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.1	-61	-30	-87	16	0.13	69%	0.78	70.2	2.79%	0	0.8	72	0
13	Jan_7_2011	413.18	562.03	582.09	588.31	586.32	584.73	588.25(1.76%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0	-22	-30	-46	51	0.19	69%	0.77	72.5	2.8%	0	1	77	0
14	Jan_6_2011	410.02	558.58	579.97	587.56	590.57	584.8	578.1(-2.12%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.4	-22	-50	-50	62	0.17	69%	0.72	71.8	2.81%	0	0.8	75	0
15	Jan_5_2011	407.09	555.48	578.53	588.58	589.93	587.91	590.6(0.73%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.1	-101	-20	-149	43	0.17	72%	0.73	75.4	2.79%	0	1.3	85	0

16	Jan_4_2011	404.12	551.85	575.2	586.58	590.01	596.34	586.3(-2.01%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	130	90	122	155	0.2	72%	0.76	87.3	2.89%	0	1.3	75	0
17	Jan_3_2011	401.06	548.63	570.74	582.7	586.04	591.94	598.3(2.36%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	231	90	242	198	0.17	72%	0.8	98.9	2.92%	0	1.9	77	0
18	Dec_31_2010	397.88	544.47	563.95	574.98	577.17	583.69	584.5(0.22%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	131	90	128	141	0.08	72%	0.76	113.6	2.93%	0	1.7	78	0
19	Dec_30_2010	394.86	540.67	558.55	571.34	571.06	580.14	583.2(0.45%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.5	206	110	216	175	0.1	72%	0.75	124.7	2.95%	0	1.9	79	0
20	Dec_29_2010	391.91	535.94	552.32	567.06	566.12	570.65	580.6(2.42%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	183	50	191	160	0.1	72%	0.68	129.1	2.95%	0	1.9	79	0

21	Dec_28_2010	389.25	529.61	547.15	562.28	562.35	561.98	566.9(1.29%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	60	-0	47	99	0.09	72%	0.63	102.1	2.95%	0	1.4	73	0
22	Dec_27_2010	386.83	524.2	543.93	556.84	559.02	561.59	559.7(-1.17%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	57	40	45	93	0.09	72%	0.76	85.8	2.96%	0	1.2	67	0
23	Dec_23_2010	383.93	518.84	540.27	550.9	553.39	562.73	566.3(0.8%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	189	130	203	146	0.09	74%	0.61	72.1	3%	0	1.5	73	0
24	Dec_22_2010	381.59	513.72	535.34	543.6	544.48	556.45	561.8(0.92%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	278	160	312	177	0.12	74%	0.62	70.8	3.03%	0	1.5	75	0
25	Dec_21_2010	379.22	507.79	530.42	535.3	534.71	544.05	556.7(3.15%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	237	120	265	151	0.16	74%		63.1	3.05%	0	1.5	79	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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