Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Dec. 16, 2010

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $529.8000 (1.83%) ($507.8000 - $529.9000) on Thu. Dec. 16, 2010.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   3.08% (three month average)
RSI   81
Latest Price   $529.8000(1.83%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX advances 0.5% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX advances 5.5% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
OIH(90%)    XOP(88%)    IWM(70%)    SPY(69%)    EEM(63%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -1.54% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-32%)    SHY(-7%)    TIP(0%)    IGOV(4%)    LQD(7%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.54% (StdDev 3.08%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 1.5%

5 Day Moving Average   $527.98(0.34%)
10 Day Moving Average   $523.42(1.22%)
20 Day Moving Average   $496.39(6.73%)
To recent high   -1.2%
To recent low   78.2%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.01%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.01% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 6.44% (three month std-dev: 3.08%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 3 Average positive next day return: 1.09%(67%) Average negative next day return: 0%(33%) Sample size 3 Average positive next three day return: 2.04%(33%) Average negative next three day return: -3.58%(67%) Sample size 3 Average positive next weekly return: 6.79%(67%) Average negative next weekly return: -2.4%(33%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20110116

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Dec_16_2010	372.08	496.39	523.42	527.98	529.33	522.86	529.8(1.83%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.1	-42	-80	-81	75	0.17	74%	0.63	61.5	3.08%	0	1	81	0
2	Dec_15_2010	369.74	491.73	521.47	525.64	528.91	528.26	520.3(-1.9%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.2	-60	10	-106	79	0.21	74%	0.61	52.4	3.09%	0	0.9	70	0
3	Dec_14_2010	367.51	487.37	518.6	524.36	527.38	535.8	530.4(-1.08%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	156	130	142	198	0.25	74%	0.63	46.5	3.07%	0	1.2	78	0
4	Dec_13_2010	365.22	483.59	511.12	521.98	523.58	529.56	536.2(2.48%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	198	90	193	211	0.23	74%	0.67	47.2	3.07%	0	1.5	67	0
5	Dec_10_2010	362.78	479.71	503.29	519.4	521.81	518.97	523.2(0.98%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	50	-20	22	135	0.22	74%	0.65	51.4	3.07%	0	1.4	64	0

6	Dec_9_2010	360.45	477.48	496.15	518.38	521.95	517.59	518.1(0.82%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0	-49	-40	-94	86	0.25	74%	0.69	60.9	3.08%	0	1.3	65	0
7	Dec_8_2010	357.98	474.82	490.77	516.72	520.01	524.65	513.9(-0.89%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	52	80	21	144	0.23	74%	0.65	74.2	3.08%	0	1.4	71	0
8	Dec_7_2010	355.67	471.58	483.71	511.58	515.76	526.3	518.5(-0.92%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	303	170	318	259	0.43	74%	0.71	81.7	3.08%	0	1.7	72	0
9	Dec_6_2010	353.15	468.05	478.35	497.98	503.17	515.38	523.3(1%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	331	200	358	248	0.26	74%	0.75	85.4	3.14%	0	2.2	64	0
10	Dec_3_2010	350.51	463.95	472.7	484.46	484.49	505.21	518.1(1.63%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.5	354	300	394	235	0.29	74%	0.68	93.9	3.16%	0	2.4	61	0

11	Dec_2_2010	348.15	459.83	466.58	470.66	468.66	490.96	509.8(4.42%)	UT	OpenLong	75	2.1	485	320	560	261	0.28	74%	0.66	104.2	3.17%	0	2.7	54	0
12	Dec_1_2010	345.87	454.53	458.83	461.52	456.12	463.76	488.2(8.37%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	296	80	347	143	0.34	76%	0.6	95.9	3.15%	0	1.8	54	0
13	Nov_30_2010	343.82	450.24	452.97	452.2	450.05	446.36	450.5(-1.14%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-28	-70	-26	-35	0.26	74%	0.52	78.1	3.23%	0	0	51	0
14	Nov_29_2010	342.05	447.39	453.6	455.7	448.84	448.48	455.7(1.47%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0	-103	-50	-117	-62	0.32	74%	0.53	69.9	3.29%	0	0.3	52	0
15	Nov_26_2010	340.26	444.03	454.22	458.95	452.45	453.74	449.1(-3.24%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.4	32	-20	38	13	0.14	76%	0.75	65	3.39%	0	0.2	53	0

16	Nov_24_2010	337.74	441.04	457.52	461.43	455.39	449.2	464.12(5.1%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.1	-13	-130	-21	11	0.22	76%	0.67	60.5	3.37%	0	0.7	58	0
17	Nov_23_2010	335.49	437.23	457.81	455.51	455.37	451.15	441.6(-5.64%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-103	-70	-130	-22	0.38	74%	0.32	54.9	3.39%	0	0.1	64	0
18	Nov_22_2010	334.42	434.85	459.07	453.25	452.96	461.58	468(-0.83%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	91	130	94	83	0.29	79%	0.72	54.9	3.29%	0	1	71	0
19	Nov_19_2010	332.04	430.85	457.38	451.05	446.32	459.59	471.93(2.26%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	213	180	231	157	0.19	79%	0.73	52.3	3.33%	0	1.2	75	0
20	Nov_18_2010	329.64	426.49	454.68	449.28	446.36	444.35	461.5(6.21%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	144	-50	144	143	0.28	79%	0.7	51.4	3.39%	0	1	75	0

21	Nov_17_2010	327.36	422.36	452.56	453.9	448.28	433.05	434.5(0.98%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-250	-270	-330	-9	0.27	78%	0.59	55.3	3.35%	0	0.4	71	0
22	Nov_16_2010	325.43	419.77	450.21	460.78	458.55	448.38	430.3(-5.84%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.8	-204	-170	-284	37	0.42	78%	0.51	58.9	3.39%	0	0.3	70	0
23	Nov_15_2010	323.79	416.74	447.97	465.02	464.83	463.5	457(-1.32%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.2	-9	-20	-62	151	0.28	84%	0.56	62.2	3.3%	0	1.1	77	0
24	Nov_12_2010	322	413.41	441.44	463.9	463.13	468.73	463.1(-4.44%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	119	80	87	215	0.36	84%	0.58	66.3	3.29%	0	1.4	81	0
25	Nov_11_2010	320.13	409.39	433.68	460.39	458.39	466.16	484.6(3.35%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.7	230	110	218	267	0.44	80%		69.5	3.24%	0	2.2	92	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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