Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Fri. Nov. 12, 2010

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $463.1000 (-4.44%) ($450.6100 - $474.8000) on Fri. Nov. 12, 2010.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   3.29% (three month average)
RSI   81
Latest Price   $463.1000(-4.44%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX advances 0.8% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX advances 9.9% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
OIH(90%)    XOP(88%)    IWM(70%)    SPY(70%)    EEM(63%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -1.645% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-32%)    SHY(-7%)    TIP(0%)    IGOV(4%)    LQD(7%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.645% (StdDev 3.29%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -1.2%

5 Day Moving Average   $463.9(-0.17%)
10 Day Moving Average   $441.44(4.91%)
20 Day Moving Average   $413.41(12.02%)
To recent high   -4.4%
To recent low   87.1%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.01%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.01% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 8.58% (three month std-dev: 3.29%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 4 Average positive next day return: 1.05%(75%) Average negative next day return: 0%(25%) Sample size 4 Average positive next three day return: 5.4%(50%) Average negative next three day return: -4.04%(50%) Sample size 4 Average positive next weekly return: 2.5%(50%) Average negative next weekly return: -2.89%(50%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20101212

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Nov_12_2010	322	413.41	441.44	463.9	463.13	468.73	463.1(-4.44%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	119	80	87	215	0.36	84%	0.58	66.3	3.29%	0	1.4	81	0
2	Nov_11_2010	320.13	409.39	433.68	460.39	458.39	466.16	484.6(3.35%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.7	230	110	218	267	0.44	80%	0.59	69.5	3.24%	0	2.2	92	0
3	Nov_10_2010	318.24	404.02	423.45	451.39	450.56	457.54	468.9(3.85%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	196	100	184	230	0.34	79%	0.52	76.2	3.42%	0	2.2	92	0
4	Nov_9_2010	316.59	399.48	414.84	438.39	443.15	450.61	451.5(0.02%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.5	235	150	238	225	0.42	77%	0.37	76.5	3.42%	0	2	89	0
5	Nov_8_2010	315.42	395.31	408.44	428.25	429.3	443.58	451.4(1.31%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1	231	240	237	213	0.27	77%	0.37	76.7	3.42%	0	2.4	91	0

6	Nov_5_2010	314.26	391.16	401.69	415.37	417.52	435.68	445.56(1.36%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.5	385	320	428	255	0.34	77%	0.37	82.1	3.45%	0	2.8	67	0
7	Nov_4_2010	313.09	387.17	395.25	402.82	404.82	415.03	439.6(8.84%)	UT	OpenLong	75	2.3	312	190	351	194	0.33	77%	0.35	85.3	3.44%	0	3.3	68	0
8	Nov_3_2010	312	382.91	388.73	391.68	392.51	399.37	403.9(0.77%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	97	130	107	68	0.3	74%	0.24	103.7	3.29%	0	1.8	60	0
9	Nov_2_2010	311.26	380.77	386.24	387.9	389.33	394.62	400.8(3.57%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	157	110	181	86	0.22	78%	0.3	105.2	3.29%	0	1.7	59	0
10	Nov_1_2010	310.32	378.4	382.76	385.7	384.8	385.66	387(1.1%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	28	10	31	18	0.25	77%	0.25	90.8	3.49%	0	0.6	60	0

11	Oct_29_2010	309.54	375.78	383.21	385.76	383.84	384.04	382.8(-0.29%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.2	-20	-10	-27	3	0.22	77%	0.25	89	3.49%	0	0.4	58	0
12	Oct_28_2010	308.77	373.9	383.51	386.22	387.05	383.94	383.9(-0.29%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	17	-50	13	27	0.21	77%	0.38	86.2	3.49%	0	0.5	60	0
13	Oct_27_2010	307.6	371.38	383.46	385.08	386.28	383.64	385(-1.23%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0	-71	-40	-92	-6	0.26	77%	0.36	85.4	3.49%	0	0.7	66	0
14	Oct_26_2010	306.5	368.74	383.33	384.1	386.27	390.16	389.8(0.65%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	53	90	51	59	0.27	77%	0.42	82.7	3.49%	0	1	66	0
15	Oct_25_2010	305.21	365.45	381.55	379.28	383.26	388.93	387.3(0.57%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	129	140	141	91	0.27	77%	0.39	73.7	3.51%	0	0.9	69	0

16	Oct_22_2010	304.02	361.98	380.1	380.44	377.49	382.38	385.1(1.82%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	65	70	60	80	0.21	79%	0.28	73.8	3.51%	0	0.9	75	0
17	Oct_21_2010	303.18	358.72	378.64	380.64	378.46	377.6	378.2(-0.5%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	67	-30	58	92	0.33	79%	0.29	72.5	3.59%	0	0.7	66	0
18	Oct_20_2010	302.29	354.98	376.78	381.7	379.59	372.61	380.1(3.94%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.1	-72	-150	-109	41	0.35	81%	0.41	70.9	3.64%	0	0.9	70	0
19	Oct_19_2010	301.06	351.38	375	382.46	381.56	379.31	365.7(-6.97%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.6	-80	-50	-124	52	0.5	80%	0.22	72.1	3.69%	0	0.5	68	0
20	Oct_18_2010	300.4	348.77	374.05	383.64	384.5	386.58	393.1(1.81%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	106	40	87	161	0.18	88%	0.33	73.5	3.57%	0	1.5	83	0

21	Oct_15_2010	299.4	344.63	367.99	379.56	379.47	383.81	386.1(0.68%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	71	80	48	140	0.22	79%	0.25	71.6	3.72%	0	1.4	84	0
22	Oct_14_2010	298.64	340.18	363.66	376.36	376.43	382.43	383.5(-0.1%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	155	110	145	186	0.25	79%	0.36	70	3.72%	0	1.5	81	0
23	Oct_13_2010	297.56	335.98	358.42	371.16	371.53	375.13	383.9(3.31%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.5	128	70	112	177	0.24	79%	0.36	69.6	3.72%	0	1.8	85	0
24	Oct_12_2010	296.5	331.84	352.93	366.64	366.32	370.43	371.6(-0.3%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	84	80	59	158	0.23	79%	0.32	72.8	3.73%	0	1.6	78	0
25	Oct_11_2010	295.55	328.41	348.02	362.92	363.85	367.93	372.7(0.7%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	152	90	139	189	0.17	79%		77.7	3.73%	0	1.9	74	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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