Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Fri. Oct. 8, 2010

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $370.1000 (3.52%) ($354.0000 - $373.1000) on Fri. Oct. 8, 2010.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   3.73% (three month average)
RSI   73
Latest Price   $370.1000(3.52%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX advances 1.6% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX advances 7.2% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
OIH(89%)    XOP(88%)    IWM(70%)    SPY(70%)    EEM(63%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -1.865% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-32%)    SHY(-7%)    TIP(0%)    IGOV(4%)    LQD(7%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.865% (StdDev 3.73%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 3.8%

5 Day Moving Average   $354.5(4.4%)
10 Day Moving Average   $342.3(8.12%)
20 Day Moving Average   $324.99(13.88%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   49.5%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.01%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.01% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 6.72% (three month std-dev: 3.73%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 3 Average positive next day return: 2.34%(67%) Average negative next day return: -0.15%(33%) Sample size 3 Average positive next three day return: 3.23%(67%) Average negative next three day return: -3.27%(33%) Sample size 3 Average positive next weekly return: 4.09%(67%) Average negative next weekly return: -5.08%(33%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20101108

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Oct_8_2010	294.78	324.99	342.3	354.5	357.63	362.21	370.1(3.52%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	112	120	98	155	0.26	79%	0.3	75.9	3.73%	0	2.1	73	0
2	Oct_7_2010	293.91	321.41	336.99	349.02	350.58	359.78	357.5(-1.05%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	148	200	141	170	0.28	81%	0.11	78.6	3.73%	0	1.8	75	0
3	Oct_6_2010	293.58	318.08	331.31	343.61	345.35	353.05	361.3(2.35%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	202	170	209	180	0.25	81%	0.09	78.3	3.92%	0	2.3	74	0
4	Oct_5_2010	293.33	314.45	325.67	337.25	338.79	341.38	353(6.78%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	106	70	100	122	0.36	81%	0.02	86.9	3.92%	0	2.3	71	0
5	Oct_4_2010	293.26	310.94	321.31	331.01	333.26	337.65	330.6(-3.53%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	67	110	58	94	0.24	80%	-0.09	98.1	3.88%	0	1.3	64	0

6	Oct_1_2010	293.52	309.21	319.4	327.99	328.72	336.21	342.7(3.71%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	140	170	145	125	0.3	80%	-0.13	107.2	3.85%	0	2.3	69	0
7	Sep_30_2010	293.9	306.42	314.79	323.11	323.32	328.87	330.45(0.29%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	137	120	146	111	0.35	80%	-0.2	127.9	3.83%	0	1.9	68	0
8	Sep_29_2010	294.48	303.94	311.76	316.96	318.66	321.23	329.5(2.39%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	97	70	102	80	0.28	71%	-0.15	127.5	3.86%	0	2.1	71	0
9	Sep_28_2010	294.92	300.27	309.03	312.3	312.31	317.76	321.8(2%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	39	120	36	46	0.21	71%	-0.2	95.2	4.03%	0	1.4	70	0
10	Sep_27_2010	295.52	297.05	307.25	310.24	310.72	316.09	315.5(-0.88%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	118	130	128	87	0.14	71%	-0.08	78	4.06%	0	1.1	71	0

11	Sep_24_2010	295.75	294.65	306.33	309.52	308.97	306.86	318.3(6.21%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	44	-50	40	56	0.25	67%	-0.13	74.8	4.06%	0	1.4	61	0
12	Sep_23_2010	296.13	291.21	304.56	305.32	306.97	305.35	299.7(-2.12%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.3	-52	-20	-71	6	0.22	64%	-0.34	54.6	4.07%	0	0.4	59	0
13	Sep_22_2010	297.13	289.08	304	305.54	307.01	311.09	306.2(-1.7%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	54	110	51	62	0.2	59%	-0.38	43.2	4.08%	0	0.8	67	0
14	Sep_21_2010	298.26	286.67	302.59	305.04	304.33	308.6	311.5(-0.13%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	91	90	90	93	0.28	59%	-0.48	32.2	4.21%	0	1.2	80	0
15	Sep_20_2010	299.71	284.46	299.93	303.78	301.47	302.94	311.9(4.91%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	47	10	35	82	0.25	59%	-0.44	27.7	4.21%	0	1.3	78	0

16	Sep_17_2010	301.02	282.17	298.32	302.87	301.59	300.05	297.3(-1.16%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	10	-50	-13	77	0.17	57%	-0.54	23.5	4.18%	0	0.8	66	0
17	Sep_16_2010	302.64	281.13	297.57	303.73	303.35	300	300.8(-0.95%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.2	-3	-80	-35	94	0.18	57%	-0.51	22.8	4.17%	0	1	74	0
18	Sep_15_2010	304.2	280.46	295.73	302.05	303.31	303.14	303.7(-0.49%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.1	2	10	-33	107	0.23	60%	-0.45	20.3	4.17%	0	1.2	71	0
19	Sep_14_2010	305.58	280.02	291.05	299.53	302.55	306.69	305.2(-0.7%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	91	130	74	142	0.21	60%	-0.58	11.7	4.28%	0	1.3	70	0
20	Sep_13_2010	307.37	278.87	286.24	295.33	298.26	303.48	307.35(1.91%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	108	150	98	136	0.18	60%	-0.58	-5.2	4.28%	0	1.6	63	0

21	Sep_10_2010	309.16	277.62	282.09	293.28	293.23	298.41	301.6(3.15%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	86	120	73	123	0.16	65%	-0.5	-19.1	4.28%	0	1.4	62	0
22	Sep_9_2010	310.71	276.78	276.77	290.72	292.36	293.04	292.4(0.45%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	84	30	78	100	0.15	65%	-0.52	-37.2	4.61%	0	1	55	0
23	Sep_8_2010	312.32	276.68	272.98	288.48	289.23	288.05	291.1(2.43%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.2	9	-20	-3	46	0.16	66%	-0.53	-51.8	4.62%	0	0.9	49	0
24	Sep_7_2010	313.98	277.85	269.48	281.02	285.39	291.69	284.2(-4.34%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	67	200	76	39	0.17	66%	-0.84	-57.4	4.66%	0	0.3	44	0
25	Sep_3_2010	316.63	279.79	267.72	275.28	277.08	290.41	297.1(2.87%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	152	360	183	59	0.22	61%		-52.7	4.79%	0	0.8	53	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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