Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Sep. 30, 2010

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $330.4500 (0.29%) ($320.9000 - $341.8000) on Thu. Sep. 30, 2010.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   3.83% (three month average)
RSI   68
Latest Price   $330.4500(0.29%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX advances 1.9% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX advances 3.4% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
OIH(89%)    XOP(88%)    IWM(70%)    SPY(70%)    EEM(63%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -1.915% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-32%)    SHY(-7%)    TIP(0%)    IGOV(4%)    LQD(7%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.915% (StdDev 3.83%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -1.7%

5 Day Moving Average   $323.11(2.27%)
10 Day Moving Average   $314.79(4.97%)
20 Day Moving Average   $306.42(7.84%)
To recent high   -1.4%
To recent low   42.1%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.01%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.01% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 4.08% (three month std-dev: 3.83%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 1 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: -0.67%(100%) Sample size 1 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: -0.79%(100%) Sample size 1 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: -1.51%(100%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20101030

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Sep_30_2010	293.9	306.42	314.79	323.11	323.32	328.87	330.45(0.29%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	137	120	146	111	0.35	80%	-0.2	127.9	3.83%	0	1.9	68	0
2	Sep_29_2010	294.48	303.94	311.76	316.96	318.66	321.23	329.5(2.39%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	97	70	102	80	0.28	71%	-0.15	127.5	3.86%	0	2.1	71	0
3	Sep_28_2010	294.92	300.27	309.03	312.3	312.31	317.76	321.8(2%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	39	120	36	46	0.21	71%	-0.2	95.2	4.03%	0	1.4	70	0
4	Sep_27_2010	295.52	297.05	307.25	310.24	310.72	316.09	315.5(-0.88%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	118	130	128	87	0.14	71%	-0.08	78	4.06%	0	1.1	71	0
5	Sep_24_2010	295.75	294.65	306.33	309.52	308.97	306.86	318.3(6.21%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	44	-50	40	56	0.25	67%	-0.13	74.8	4.06%	0	1.4	61	0

6	Sep_23_2010	296.13	291.21	304.56	305.32	306.97	305.35	299.7(-2.12%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.3	-52	-20	-71	6	0.22	64%	-0.34	54.6	4.07%	0	0.4	59	0
7	Sep_22_2010	297.13	289.08	304	305.54	307.01	311.09	306.2(-1.7%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	54	110	51	62	0.2	59%	-0.38	43.2	4.08%	0	0.8	67	0
8	Sep_21_2010	298.26	286.67	302.59	305.04	304.33	308.6	311.5(-0.13%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	91	90	90	93	0.28	59%	-0.48	32.2	4.21%	0	1.2	80	0
9	Sep_20_2010	299.71	284.46	299.93	303.78	301.47	302.94	311.9(4.91%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	47	10	35	82	0.25	59%	-0.44	27.7	4.21%	0	1.3	78	0
10	Sep_17_2010	301.02	282.17	298.32	302.87	301.59	300.05	297.3(-1.16%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	10	-50	-13	77	0.17	57%	-0.54	23.5	4.18%	0	0.8	66	0

11	Sep_16_2010	302.64	281.13	297.57	303.73	303.35	300	300.8(-0.95%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.2	-3	-80	-35	94	0.18	57%	-0.51	22.8	4.17%	0	1	74	0
12	Sep_15_2010	304.2	280.46	295.73	302.05	303.31	303.14	303.7(-0.49%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.1	2	10	-33	107	0.23	60%	-0.45	20.3	4.17%	0	1.2	71	0
13	Sep_14_2010	305.58	280.02	291.05	299.53	302.55	306.69	305.2(-0.7%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	91	130	74	142	0.21	60%	-0.58	11.7	4.28%	0	1.3	70	0
14	Sep_13_2010	307.37	278.87	286.24	295.33	298.26	303.48	307.35(1.91%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	108	150	98	136	0.18	60%	-0.58	-5.2	4.28%	0	1.6	63	0
15	Sep_10_2010	309.16	277.62	282.09	293.28	293.23	298.41	301.6(3.15%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	86	120	73	123	0.16	65%	-0.5	-19.1	4.28%	0	1.4	62	0

16	Sep_9_2010	310.71	276.78	276.77	290.72	292.36	293.04	292.4(0.45%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	84	30	78	100	0.15	65%	-0.52	-37.2	4.61%	0	1	55	0
17	Sep_8_2010	312.32	276.68	272.98	288.48	289.23	288.05	291.1(2.43%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.2	9	-20	-3	46	0.16	66%	-0.53	-51.8	4.62%	0	0.9	49	0
18	Sep_7_2010	313.98	277.85	269.48	281.02	285.39	291.69	284.2(-4.34%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	67	200	76	39	0.17	66%	-0.84	-57.4	4.66%	0	0.3	44	0
19	Sep_3_2010	316.63	279.79	267.72	275.28	277.08	290.41	297.1(2.87%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	152	360	183	59	0.22	61%	-0.48	-52.7	4.79%	0	0.8	53	0
20	Sep_2_2010	318.17	280.85	264.43	269.2	268.21	279.09	288.8(2.7%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	174	270	216	49	0.19	65%	-0.5	-49.7	4.8%	0	0.3	50	0

21	Sep_1_2010	319.77	282.86	262.9	260.94	261.33	263.75	281.2(10.8%)	RB	SmallLong	20	0.7	72	70	102	-20	0.4	59%	-0.49	-48.4	5.03%	0	-0.1	47	0
22	Aug_31_2010	321.35	285.25	263.4	255.58	256.23	257.34	253.8(-0.67%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-30	40	-13	-79	0.28	56%	-0.58	-46.3	5.1%	0	-1.1	32	0
23	Aug_30_2010	323.24	288.91	267.76	256.2	255.69	258.9	255.5(-4.2%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0	11	80	36	-65	0.18	56%	-0.57	-42.4	5.14%	0	-1.2	26	0
24	Aug_27_2010	325.08	292.49	270.78	258.79	255.24	255.11	266.7(7.76%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-18	-40	5	-87	0.39	58%	-0.49	-38.9	5.16%	0	-0.9	26	0
25	Aug_26_2010	326.67	294.1	272.69	259.03	258.69	252.49	247.5(-2.71%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.4	-75	-170	-59	-123	0.26	56%		-39.8	5.31%	0	-1.7	17	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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