Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Fri. Jul. 23, 2010

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $294.6000 (0.86%) ($280.3000 - $295.2000) on Fri. Jul. 23, 2010.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   6% (three month average)
RSI   75
Latest Price   $294.6000(0.86%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX advances 2.4% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX advances 4.5% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
OIH(90%)    XOP(88%)    IWM(70%)    SPY(70%)    EEM(64%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -3% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-32%)    SHY(-7%)    TIP(0%)    IGOV(4%)    LQD(6%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -3% (StdDev 6%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 1.6%

5 Day Moving Average   $282.86(4.15%)
10 Day Moving Average   $280.74(4.94%)
20 Day Moving Average   $268.5(9.72%)
To recent high   -39.1%
To recent low   26.7%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.04%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.04% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 7.28% (three month std-dev: 6%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20100823

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jul_23_2010	350.85	268.5	280.74	282.86	282.76	289.43	294.6(0.86%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	77	160	77	76	0.46	45%	-0.24	-27.2	6%	0	1.3	75	0
2	Jul_22_2010	351.71	267.49	278.95	276.32	277.06	284.5	292.1(6.88%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	93	200	95	85	0.5	45%	-0.27	-49.6	6.07%	0	1.3	74	0
3	Jul_21_2010	352.65	267.43	276.98	274.77	272.23	276.09	273.3(-4.31%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	57	70	50	79	0.45	43%	-0.31	-58.7	6%	0	0.3	69	0
4	Jul_20_2010	353.76	268.83	276.23	276.93	272.61	269.61	285.6(6.29%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.4	16	-120	-3	72	0.49	45%	-0.25	-56.6	5.98%	0	0.8	69	0
5	Jul_19_2010	354.64	270.85	271.86	276.87	275.31	268.36	268.7(2.6%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.3	-57	-190	-86	32	0.32	43%	-0.27	-43.1	5.96%	0	-0.1	51	0

6	Jul_16_2010	355.59	273.92	268.66	278.23	279.92	275.61	261.9(-7.9%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.6	-43	-90	-66	28	0.48	42%	-0.28	-33	5.95%	0	-0.4	44	0
7	Jul_15_2010	356.59	277.13	266.3	281.49	281.24	282.26	284.36(0.09%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.1	7	20	-6	45	0.4	44%	-0.22	-25	5.9%	0	0.2	51	0
8	Jul_14_2010	357.36	279.15	261.55	279.3	279.63	284.24	284.1(-0.42%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	51	120	54	43	0.34	44%	-0.2	-17.5	5.9%	0	0.1	43	0
9	Jul_13_2010	358.07	281.21	257.35	275.3	276.63	280.23	285.3(3.56%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	80	110	97	29	0.4	44%	-0.25	-13.1	5.91%	0	0.1	41	0
10	Jul_12_2010	358.95	282.17	255.13	266.12	268.53	275.03	275.5(-0.97%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.3	47	200	70	-24	0.28	44%	-0.31	-14.5	5.89%	0	-0.2	30	0

11	Jul_9_2010	360.08	283.82	255.02	257.52	260.26	273.03	278.2(1.76%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.6	111	380	157	-26	0.34	44%	-0.3	-16.1	5.89%	0	-0.2	30	0
12	Jul_8_2010	361.17	285.15	254.54	248.74	250.08	262.04	273.4(3.52%)	RB	SmallLong	20	0.7	123	350	180	-49	0.5	44%	-0.3	-22	5.9%	0	-0.3	31	0
13	Jul_7_2010	362.25	285.07	256.26	241.32	241.03	247.5	264.1(10.32%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.6	50	180	101	-104	0.59	44%	-0.33	-30	5.88%	0	-0.6	27	0
14	Jul_6_2010	363.44	285.86	259.9	237.16	238.13	238.11	239.4(2.97%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-30	10	13	-158	0.47	41%	-0.33	-31.4	5.72%	0	-1.3	12	0
15	Jul_2_2010	364.63	287.38	268.98	242.84	239.94	234.55	232.5(-0.77%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.3	-120	-190	-98	-185	0.41	42%	-0.35	-33.2	5.71%	0	-1.6	24	0

16	Jul_1_2010	365.92	289.68	279.23	252.22	250.08	238.15	234.3(-0.85%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.6	-143	-360	-133	-174	0.87	44%	-0.29	-33.6	5.75%	0	-1.7	24	0
17	Jun_30_2010	367	293.31	288.92	261.07	261.31	245.33	236.3(-2.88%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-211	-430	-219	-186	0.36	44%	-0.3	-25.5	5.75%	0	-1.9	27	0
18	Jun_29_2010	368.11	296.37	298.67	273.21	272.5	262.01	243.3(-9.15%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-198	-280	-215	-147	0.79	45%	-0.23	-14.1	5.75%	0	-1.9	49	0
19	Jun_28_2010	368.96	297.61	307.82	285.78	285.23	277.29	267.8(-4.15%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-110	-200	-123	-72	0.41	47%	-0.18	-5.3	5.69%	0	-1.2	53	0
20	Jun_25_2010	369.63	299.16	312.3	299.18	296.1	282.98	279.4(0.31%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-154	-340	-186	-58	0.64	46%	-0.16	9.2	5.67%	0	-0.8	62	0

21	Jun_24_2010	370.21	300.82	315.83	310.66	311.74	293.17	278.55(-6.21%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.3	-168	-410	-213	-33	0.43	46%	-0.28	28	5.69%	0	-0.9	58	0
22	Jun_23_2010	371.24	301	319.15	321.03	323.15	309.22	297(-2.98%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-180	-280	-234	-16	0.34	47%	-0.26	31.3	5.65%	0	-0.2	51	0
23	Jun_22_2010	372.19	300.3	317.04	327.85	330.63	330.31	306.13(-8.56%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.9	-45	20	-78	56	0.49	47%	-0.19	28.6	5.64%	0	0.2	57	0
24	Jun_21_2010	372.88	298.97	314.56	332.8	333.05	337.09	334.8(-0.59%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	101	90	87	144	0.36	49%	-0.02	21.6	5.54%	0	1.4	72	0
25	Jun_18_2010	372.94	296.9	307.49	327.32	328.33	330.95	336.8(1.94%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	61	70	45	107	0.26	48%		5.3	5.55%	0	1.7	59	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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