Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

^ ERX: Intraday Hourly Forecast Similar Waves GapOpen Research Timing Gains Losses Strategies Practice

Thu. May. 20, 2010

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $284.2000 (-12.8%) ($282.2000 - $307.6000) on Thu. May. 20, 2010.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   4.16% (three month average)
RSI   25
Latest Price   $284.2000(-12.8%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX declines -5.5% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX declines -10.6% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
OIH(90%)    XOP(88%)    SPY(71%)    IWM(70%)    EEM(64%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -2.08% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-33%)    SHY(-8%)    TIP(-0%)    IGOV(5%)    LQD(6%)

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -2.08% (StdDev 4.16%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -7.6%

Resistance Level   $390.94
5 Day Moving Average   $329.84(-13.84%)
10 Day Moving Average   $349.43(-18.67%)
20 Day Moving Average   $390.94(-27.3%)
To recent high   -41.2%
To recent low   0%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.02%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.02% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 14.08% (three month std-dev: 4.16%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 3 Average positive next day return: 1.6%(67%) Average negative next day return: -0.06%(33%) Sample size 3 Average positive next three day return: 4.35%(67%) Average negative next three day return: -6.82%(33%) Sample size 3 Average positive next weekly return: 14.22%(33%) Average negative next weekly return: -10.35%(67%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20100620

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	May_20_2010	398.56	390.94	349.43	329.84	329.83	311.35	284.2(-12.8%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-434	-390	-466	-339	0.84	37%	-0.32	-50.2	4.16%	0	-1.9	25	0
2	May_19_2010	399.84	399.7	357.27	348.86	346.03	338.19	325.9(-3.15%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-255	-180	-254	-259	0.58	41%	-0.22	-46.4	3.89%	0	-1.5	28	0
3	May_18_2010	400.71	406.13	364.43	361.1	359.9	348.3	336.5(-2.86%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-164	-240	-148	-212	0.56	41%	-0.21	-42.5	3.87%	0	-1.5	29	0
4	May_17_2010	401.55	412.16	372.34	368.42	368.34	353.86	346.4(-2.75%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-284	-280	-291	-263	0.48	41%	-0.14	-40	3.86%	0	-1.5	35	0
5	May_14_2010	402.12	416.67	382.56	375.24	375.11	371.5	356.2(-6.09%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-181	-70	-172	-208	0.46	45%	-0.15	-39.9	3.91%	0	-1.4	31	0

6	May_13_2010	402.72	420.69	390.74	371.64	379.3	382.83	379.3(-2.01%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.2	70	130	129	-109	0.29	47%	-0.08	-45.4	3.86%	0	-1	33	0
7	May_12_2010	403.03	424.3	397.94	366.78	370.47	378.71	387.1(3.75%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.5	25	190	79	-136	0.29	47%	-0.03	-47.6	3.88%	0	-1	41	0
8	May_11_2010	403.17	427.45	404.25	368.88	364.8	375.78	373.1(-1.94%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.1	56	180	114	-119	0.33	49%	-0.06	-44.8	3.86%	0	-1.4	39	0
9	May_10_2010	403.41	430.92	410.95	377.72	371.16	362.22	380.5(12.51%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-42	-220	-4	-154	0.4	49%	-0.01	-40.8	3.9%	0	-1.4	39	0
10	May_7_2010	403.44	434.21	420.62	392.3	383.2	353.83	338.2(-4.73%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.6	-545	-610	-605	-365	0.52	46%	-0.11	-30.7	3.59%	0	-2.8	35	0

11	May_6_2010	403.88	439.75	435.59	412.7	408.53	380.1	355(-10.71%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-2.2	-583	-520	-666	-333	0.52	48%	-0.09	-14.1	3.57%	0	-3.2	38	0
12	May_5_2010	404.23	443.79	446.21	432.92	430.57	412.58	397.6(-4.72%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.8	-445	-310	-516	-233	0.47	54%	0.03	18	3.31%	0	-2.4	41	0
13	May_4_2010	404.09	445.25	452.09	444.2	445.22	436.95	417.3(-7.96%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.6	-206	-120	-242	-98	0.34	50%	0.09	49.7	3.25%	0	-1.7	45	0
14	May_3_2010	403.73	446.12	456.11	448.6	451.38	448.56	453.4(3%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.3	-80	-30	-98	-25	0.25	55%	0.2	74.4	3.43%	0	0.5	57	0
15	Apr_30_2010	402.91	444.92	454.11	453.88	453.57	453.49	440.2(-3.49%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-74	-0	-93	-15	0.39	60%	0.18	102.7	3.6%	0	-0.3	52	0

16	Apr_29_2010	402.2	443.53	453.54	462.56	462.28	454.2	456.1(0.46%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.4	-1	-120	-12	34	0.32	58%	0.25	120.3	3.6%	0	0.7	58	0
17	Apr_28_2010	401.2	440.38	452.86	461.88	464.78	453.65	454(3.35%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-173	-150	-217	-41	0.43	58%	0.24	104.3	3.66%	0	0.6	62	0
18	Apr_27_2010	400.23	437.08	452.26	461.24	463.53	470.35	439.3(-8.44%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.9	-45	120	-69	28	0.51	58%	0.16	91.8	3.67%	0	0.1	60	0
19	Apr_26_2010	399.59	434.51	452.31	464.02	462.33	475.91	479.8(-0.79%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.6	327	190	365	214	0.26	63%	0.26	86.5	3.5%	0	1.7	68	0
20	Apr_23_2010	398.54	428.79	448.22	454.16	453.14	456.71	483.6(6.83%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	205	50	225	143	0.32	63%	0.26	67.2	3.49%	0	1.9	70	0

21	Apr_22_2010	397.51	422.78	443.32	443.54	441.82	448.75	452.7(0.42%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	19	100	10	46	0.27	56%	0.14	50.1	3.42%	0	1	70	0
22	Apr_21_2010	396.96	419.23	440.54	442.86	439.41	449.58	450.8(-0.53%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	197	140	216	140	0.23	53%	0.11	43.2	3.54%	0	1.1	75	0
23	Apr_20_2010	396.51	416	437.43	442.26	438.45	434.89	453.2(5.27%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	92	-80	89	100	0.19	50%	0.16	40.4	3.64%	0	1.3	77	0
24	Apr_19_2010	395.87	412.57	434.97	438.98	437.62	429.24	430.5(0%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.3	-154	-140	-204	-5	0.29	48%	0.1	36.8	3.63%	0	0.6	74	0
25	Apr_16_2010	395.46	410.47	434.89	441.14	440.76	442	430.5(-4.18%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.4	-31	20	-68	81	0.56	48%		36.1	3.64%	0	0.7	79	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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