Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

^ ERX: Intraday Hourly Forecast Similar Waves GapOpen Research Timing Gains Losses Strategies Practice

Wed. Feb. 17, 2010

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $378.9500 (-0.54%) ($372.4000 - $387.0000) on Wed. Feb. 17, 2010.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   4.08% (three month average)
RSI   52
Latest Price   $378.9500(-0.54%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX advances 1.9% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX declines -0.2% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
OIH(89%)    XOP(88%)    IWM(71%)    SPY(71%)    EEM(65%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -2.04% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-33%)    SHY(-9%)    TIP(-1%)    IGOV(5%)    LQD(6%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -2.04% (StdDev 4.08%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -1.9%

5 Day Moving Average   $363.09(4.37%)
10 Day Moving Average   $354.19(6.99%)
20 Day Moving Average   $365.98(3.54%)
To recent high   -21%
To recent low   16.1%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.02%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.02% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 6.81% (three month std-dev: 4.08%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 2 Average positive next day return: 4.28%(50%) Average negative next day return: 0%(50%) Sample size 2 Average positive next three day return: 2.94%(50%) Average negative next three day return: -7.22%(50%) Sample size 2 Average positive next weekly return: 3.41%(50%) Average negative next weekly return: -7.22%(50%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20100317

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Feb_17_2010	417.51	365.98	354.19	363.09	363.7	378.57	378.95(-0.54%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.6	240	290	283	110	0.24	37%	-0.05	-73	4.08%	0	0.5	52	0
2	Feb_16_2010	417.7	369.03	354.61	356.32	353.29	362.49	381(6.9%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	202	160	242	83	0.38	41%	0.05	-66.6	4.08%	0	0.4	51	0
3	Feb_12_2010	417.51	371.5	353.35	345.42	345.29	348.83	356.4(-0.53%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.3	70	70	94	-4	0.39	35%	-0.06	-71.2	4.05%	0	-0.4	44	0
4	Feb_11_2010	417.77	375.92	351.94	340.86	341.44	344.09	358.3(5.13%)	RB	SmallLong	20	0.5	45	60	72	-35	0.32	35%	-0.1	-68.4	4.12%	0	-0.5	47	0
5	Feb_10_2010	418.19	380.11	351.86	336.32	336.37	341.75	340.8(-1.25%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-22	110	1	-90	0.45	32%	-0.2	-68.5	4.06%	0	-1	37	0

6	Feb_9_2010	419.03	385.1	354.86	344.16	339.63	338.79	345.1(5.7%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0	-16	-60	9	-91	0.63	35%	-0.15	-63.4	4.06%	0	-1	33	0
7	Feb_8_2010	419.64	390.78	357.94	353.1	349.74	330.99	326.5(-2.13%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-212	-400	-220	-189	0.36	32%	-0.22	-53.7	4.07%	0	-1.5	25	0
8	Feb_5_2010	420.56	397.59	363.69	362.48	362.04	340.46	333.6(-0.6%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-376	-420	-412	-266	0.72	35%	-0.21	-43.1	4.06%	0	-1.5	29	0
9	Feb_4_2010	421.43	403.76	368.02	364.03	370.77	368.49	335.6(-11.68%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-197	10	-196	-200	0.56	35%	-0.22	-39.3	4.11%	0	-1.6	28	0
10	Feb_3_2010	422.35	410.01	374.69	368.69	371.62	383.61	380(-2.51%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.3	115	250	175	-66	0.23	39%	-0.04	-33.5	3.85%	0	-0.8	35	0

11	Feb_2_2010	422.52	413.15	379.06	366.93	367.05	373.05	389.8(4.39%)	RB	SmallLong	20	0.6	134	120	200	-64	0.34	39%	0.01	-32.7	3.86%	0	-0.6	38	0
12	Feb_1_2010	422.48	415.32	384.29	364.31	364.15	359.63	373.4(9.39%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-82	-90	-51	-175	0.34	36%	-0.01	-33	3.82%	0	-1.1	30	0
13	Jan_29_2010	422.53	416.85	390.46	366.13	367.94	361.06	341.36(-4.89%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.6	-180	-120	-165	-224	0.46	32%	-0.09	-33.8	3.84%	0	-2	17	0
14	Jan_28_2010	422.92	420.71	401.47	372.68	375.19	368.66	358.9(-3.31%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.4	-145	-100	-129	-194	0.49	31%	-0	-32.2	3.95%	0	-1.8	22	0
15	Jan_27_2010	422.94	423.71	410.4	381.24	380.45	374.82	371.2(-1.46%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.3	-187	-110	-182	-200	0.43	31%	0.03	-26.6	4.08%	0	-1.7	24	0

16	Jan_26_2010	422.81	426.39	417.68	392.94	391.68	381.72	376.7(-1.52%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-167	-190	-165	-173	0.39	29%	-0.11	-12.9	4.09%	0	-1.7	33	0
17	Jan_25_2010	423.29	428.61	426.26	407.66	404.54	386.09	382.5(2.25%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-1	-279	-340	-306	-196	0.25	29%	0.13	7	4.13%	0	-1.7	38	0
18	Jan_22_2010	422.76	430.3	434.44	418.9	418.93	401.65	374.1(-6.87%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.8	-325	-290	-372	-184	0.44	28%	0.14	24.5	4.17%	0	-2.3	50	0
19	Jan_21_2010	422.16	432.1	443.08	434.3	432.63	423	401.7(-6.52%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.6	-195	-170	-231	-87	0.44	30%	0.22	54.7	4.09%	0	-1.5	52	0
20	Jan_20_2010	421.22	432.17	449.09	443.38	440.71	436.21	429.7(-4.57%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-76	-90	-100	-2	0.3	32%	0.28	73.4	4.01%	0	-0.1	59	0

21	Jan_19_2010	420.03	430.13	450.63	445.84	443.64	442.26	450.3(2.64%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.2	-23	-40	-42	35	0.18	33%	0.45	74.6	3.98%	0	0.9	62	0
22	Jan_15_2010	418.14	426.77	448.99	448.08	443.92	445.2	438.7(-2.75%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.4	-25	-10	-48	45	0.2	37%	0.2	71.3	3.95%	0	0.5	61	0
23	Jan_14_2010	417.29	424.37	445.44	452.78	449.82	445.01	451.1(0.89%)	UT	OpenLong	75	-0.1	31	-90	16	77	0.13	39%	0.22	77.1	4.03%	0	1	67	0
24	Jan_13_2010	416.36	421.03	441.47	453.56	451.52	442.64	447.1(1.15%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.2	-124	-150	-168	9	0.2	39%	0.23	82	4.06%	0	1	69	0
25	Jan_12_2010	415.41	417.84	438.01	455.74	454	454.64	442(-4.23%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.5	-48	-0	-82	56	0.2	39%		84.8	4.06%	0	0.9	70	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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